May 1, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The net effect will further worsen the debt overhang. We know from similar efforts here, in Japan, Europe, and China this provides no more than a fleeting boost to economic activity at the expense of additional weakness in future economic activity. This shift [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – NDR CMG Long/Flat Model Remains a Buy; Investor Sentiment Signaling Extreme Pessimism (S/T Bullish) - 04-29-2020
By Steve Blumenthal April 29, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,938 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Greatest Generation! - 04-24-2020
April 24, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “In order to understand why empires and their economies rise and fall and what is happening to the world order right now, you need to understand how money, credit, and debt work. Understanding how they work is critically important because that which has [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Waterfall Declines and Re-tests - 04-22-2020
By Steve Blumenthal April 22, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,807 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Debt’s a Problem! But There’s Good News Too - 04-17-2020
April 17, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “For the time before this current crisis, I give practically all central banks a miserable grade. But in the crisis they do the right thing. Well, the Fed's rate cuts would not have been necessary, they are of no use in the current situation. But it is [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – A Look at Long-term Trend (Where We Are in the Investment Cycle) - 04-15-2020
By Steve Blumenthal April 15, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,783 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Video Game That Doesn’t Require Quarters - 04-10-2020
April 10, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “So that the record of history is absolutely crystal clear that there is no alternative way, so far discovered, of improving the lot of the ordinary people that can hold a candle to the productive activities that are unleashed by a free enterprise system.” - [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Not Yet Out of the Woods - 04-8-2020
By Steve Blumenthal April 8, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,715 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Beginning of the End of the Pandemic - 04-3-2020
April 3, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “There are no new eras—excesses are never permanent.” – Bob Farrell Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules for Investing I went to sleep last night with more hope in my heart then I’ve felt over the last several weeks. These days, I’ve been feeling more like Eeyore than [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Expect Retest; New Lows Follow Waterfall Declines - 04-1-2020
By Steve Blumenthal April 1, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,471 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The End of the Long-Term Debt Supercycle - 03-27-2020
March 27, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal "We entered into the current crisis with a whole financial system that had been incentivized by policymakers to take on excessive levels of debt and leverage. The turmoil we are seeing right now is the result of the unwinding of this leverage. The primary [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – $2 Trillion is a Good Start - 03-25-2020
By Steve Blumenthal March 25, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,564 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: GVC – The Great Virus Crisis - 03-20-2020
March 20, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “I am proposing that we do not think outside of the box. We must get rid of the box.” – John Mauldin This week’s piece was hard for me to write. How does an optimist keep their spirits up? I’m OD’ing on the news and with coffee in hand early this morning, I [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Thoughts on the Market, Targets, Risk Management and Recession - 03-18-2020
By Steve Blumenthal March 18, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,398 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Pandemic, Cycles, Recession Begins - 03-13-2020
March 13, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We didn’t know then, just like we don’t know now, how long or how sharp or shallow of a downturn we will face.” - Alfred Lin, Partner, Sequoia Capital Sequoia Capital is a venture capital firm that invests in early stage businesses, providing seed or series [...]Read More >
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