August 16, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this [...]Read More >

August 9, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal Foreign exchange volatility is not new in modern finance, though relatively speaking it has been reasonably muted in recent decades compared to preceding ones.  Uncertainty around foreign exchange suppresses business investment in that the ability to repay [...]Read More >

August 2, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal Like the pine trees linin' the windin' road I've got a name, I've got a name Like the singin' bird and the croakin' toad I've got a name, I've got a name And I carry it with me like my daddy did But I'm living the dream that he kept hid Movin' me down the [...]Read More >

July 26, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” – Mario Draghi, President, European Central Bank (July 26, 2012) Still reeling from the financial crisis, central bankers were scrambling to [...]Read More >

July 19, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I think now is a good time 1) to look at past paradigms and paradigm shifts and 2) to focus on the paradigm that we are in and how it might shift because we are late in the current one and likely approaching a shift.” – Ray Dalio, “Paradigm Shifts” (July 17, [...]Read More >

July 12, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “[I]f you could say well give me one rule to follow as an investor, just one, it would be, do the things that are unpopular. Everything else being equal, the things that are popular are overpriced the things that are unpopular are underpriced.” - Howard [...]Read More >

June 28, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “You should invest more when the tickets in the bowl are in your favor. You should invest less when they are against your favor and what determines the mix of the tickets in the bowl largely where we stand in the cycle.” - Howard Marks Oaktree Capital and [...]Read More >

June 21, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “A lot of investors feel it isn’t hard, they just don’t know how. Because the more you think this is easy, the more you persuade yourself that you can take the heat. And then, the sooner the oven gets hot, the more shocked you are and the worse you get burned. [...]Read More >

June 14, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “As for the markets, here’s the truth. The global ex-USA stock market index this cycle failed – failed! – to make a new high. It came close but never managed to take out the prior cycle high in 2007. And it is still down 15% from this cycle’s peak, even with the [...]Read More >

June 7, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Optimizing learning and instruction often requires going against one’s intuitions, deviating from standard instructional practices, and managing one’s own learning activities in new ways.” - Dr. Bjork #TOVOInstitute #Intelligent #Training The greatest bull [...]Read More >

May 31, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “With the yield curve (3-month Treasury Bill vs. 10-year Treasury Note) now inverted on a more sustained basis, one can expect more downward pressure on equities, more volatility and more credit spread widening.” – David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & [...]Read More >

May 24, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “What we know about Fed tightening cycles is that they always expose and then expunge the bubble they created during the previous period of monetary expansion. I can take you back a century and show it to you. It’s like Mary Shelly’s Frankenstein… build up the [...]Read More >

May 17, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “The only outcomes are an orderly restructure or unorderly restructure [of the debts].” - William White Former Chief Economist of the Bank for International Settlements The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is known as the central banker’s banker. [...]Read More >

May 10, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "Corrections happen during growth-rate cycle slowdowns, they don't require a recession." - Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute On Sunday afternoon, I fly to Dallas to attend the 16th annual Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference (SIC). [...]Read More >

May 3, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Forty decades of a single market environment tends to create bad investing habits. U.S. interest rates have steadily fallen since 1981. Investors have consistently benefited from using long-term bonds and taking interest rate risk.” – @movement_cap I remember [...]Read More >