May 20, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “I can complain because rose bushes have thorns or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.” ― Sir John Templeton, Templeton Plan: 21 Steps to Personal Success and Real Happiness There were a lot of thorns in the stock market this week. To put the recent [...]Read More >

May 13, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “We are in pre-recession, we are going into recession, and where the Fed goes from there I’m not sure.” – Dr. Lacy Hunt, Executive Vice President, Hoisington Investment Management The 2022 Strategic Investment Conference concludes today. In this missive, I’ll be [...]Read More >

May 6, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “MP3 reflationary policies produced massive injections of money and credit into economies, leading to high nominal growth, leading to self-reinforcing inflation, leading to a tightening of monetary policy which is now just beginning. Stagflation is the big risk and [...]Read More >

April 29, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “This is not the only time in his­tory that they’ve been be­hind, but they are strik­ingly be­hind. They need to catch up and do it in a sys­tem­atic and un­der­stand­able way.” – John Taylor, Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics, Stanford University, [...]Read More >

April 22, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “This is not the only time in his­tory that they’ve been be­hind, but they are strik­ingly be­hind. They need to catch up and do it in a sys­tem­atic and un­der­stand­able way.” – John Taylor, Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and the George P. [...]Read More >

April 15, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “The focus on ‘peak’ headline numbers shouldn’t overlook that price increases are digging in and broadening.” – John Arthurs, Senior Editor for Markets, Bloomberg I'm writing you this morning from Snowbird, Utah. With around 20 inches of snow having fallen over [...]Read More >

April 8, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “Financial conditions need to tighten. If this doesn’t happen on its own (which seems unlikely), the Fed will have to shock markets to achieve the desired response. This would mean hiking the federal funds rate considerably higher than currently anticipated. One [...]Read More >

April 1, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan Stepping [...]Read More >

March 25, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “I love Hot Fudge Sundaes; I could die for Hot Fudge Sundaes.” - Bob Farrell Since 1972, Institutional Investor has added more than 15,000 names to its All-America Research Team, which ranks the best research analysts in America. In 2011, they published the [...]Read More >

March 18, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "Now it's 2022 and another strange recession looms. That's right, I'm calling it: Recession is here, or will be soon. And unfortunately, it will be a global recession. Like the COVID recession, this one has little to do with the business cycle. It's a recession [...]Read More >

March 11, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “History has shown that we shouldn’t rely on governments to protect us financially. On the contrary, we should expect most governments to abuse their privileged positions as the creators and users of money and credit for the same reasons that you might commit [...]Read More >

March 4, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal A short helicopter ride from Golden, British Columbia (an hour and a half northeast of Banff) to a tiny resort called Chatter Creek began four days of deep snow powder skiing. The vastness of the mountain range was like nothing I'd ever seen. Day one was a blue [...]Read More >

February 25, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal A very brief OMR post this week. Good friend Jonathan D.T. Ward, author of China's Vision of Victory, was in the press this morning, and I thought I'd share the interview with you. With the Ukraine-Russia conflict in mind and the recovery rally in equities [...]Read More >

February 18, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "Where the money and credit flow is important to determining what happens. For example, when they no longer go into lending that fuels increases in economic demand and instead go into other currencies and inflation-hedge assets, they fail to stimulate economic [...]Read More >

February 11, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "In the end, there is always inflation." - Ray Dalio, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates, LP The hottest inflation news in 40 years hit the wires this week. The January Consumer Price Index report showed the most significant [...]Read More >