September 13, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "We are here, we'd be better off here." — Steve Blumenthal, CMG, On My Radar   We talked about valuations last week and received many thoughtful responses. I want to share one particularly excellent one from Dan S: "Hi Steve, I have [...]Read More >

  September 6, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "It’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s whether you get up." — Vince Lombardi Bonds now, stocks later.  When I started in the business in 1984, few investors thought long-term. Most believed the way to succeed was to trade the market. [...]Read More >

  August 30, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal Dr. Lacy Hunt argues that the Fed's current policy stance is too restrictive for the economy's growth rate. He points out that the average growth of real per capita GDP and GDI is around 1.4%, aligning with the long-term trend since the 1970s. With [...]Read More >

  August 23, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman  Located in the heart of the Teton Mountain Range, Jackson Hole is a sunlit paradise in the summer and a powdery haven for skiers in the winter. Wildflowers bloom in [...]Read More >

  August 16, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "We're caught in a trap I can't walk out Because I love you too much, baby" - Elvis Presley, Suspicious Minds July, consumer prices didn't rise as much as they have in the past, aligning with what experts expected. However, the cost of shelter [...]Read More >

  August 9, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "It's the things you learn after you know it all that count." - Coach John Wooden's personal note to Bill Walton  Last Monday, the yen surged, and Tokyo's stock market plunged as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate to a [...]Read More >

  August 2, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal The Sahm Rule triggered the recession call today. The (data) shows that the +80 bp jump in the jobless rate over the past year is a 100% iron-clad indicator that the downturn has either arrived or is about to. The Fed is as behind the economic curve [...]Read More >

  July 26, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "I changed my mind. The Fed needs to cut rates now." - Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President, Source: Bloomberg After an initial bounce Thursday morning, the equity markets reversed course late afternoon. The S&P 500 declined 0.51%, and [...]Read More >

  July 19, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives. Choice, not chance, determines your destiny." - Dr. Aristotle  There is good [...]Read More >

  January 12, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "The art of investment is the discipline of inaction in the absence of a good opportunity, but aggressive action when one is identified." ­­– Li Lu Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data came in just above consensus estimates earlier this [...]Read More >

  October 27, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. " – T.S. Elliot In a conversation with a client this week, he shared the above quote by T.S. [...]Read More >

  October 20, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "The world's most crucial benchmark market is on an unpredictable journey with an uncertain destination." – Mohamed El-Erian is President of Queens’ College, Cambridge University, an advisor to Allianz and Gramercy, and a best-selling author. [...]Read More >

  October 13, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "To push the point home, I want to make clear that I believe that we are in that brief part of the Big Cycle when the conflicts are heating up, and the leading powers still have the ability to choose between crossing that line into brutal war or [...]Read More >

  October 6, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Peace begins with a smile." ­­– Mother Teresa I received a lot of feedback from last week's OMR letter. I appreciate the dialogue, especially when our views differ. When attending a conference or listening to a round table discussion on a [...]Read More >

  September 29, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Interest rates are the heart, the soul, and the life of the free market system. They ARE the cost of money. When costs go up, earnings go down. Real incomes go down. We are in a different investment environment than anything investors have [...]Read More >