July 21, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The primary, direct driver of default rates is not the yield on Treasury bonds but rather the business cycle.” Martin Fridson, CFA CIO of Lehmann, Livian, Fridson Advisors, LLC At a conference in Chicago this week, following up on last week’s letter, Keep [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 19, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,466 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 14, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Our responsibility now is to keep dancing, but closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves.” – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, LP Ray Dalio, chairman of Bridgewater Associates, wrote last week that the global economy is heading toward a new [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 12, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,425 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 7, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far.  But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes, and I don’t believe it will be.” - Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 5, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,427 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

June 30, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Change of a long-term trend is usually gradual enough that it is obscured by the noise caused by short-term volatility.  By the time secular trends are even acknowledged by the majority they are generally obvious and mature.  In the early stages of a new secular [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 28, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,419 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 23, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Investors need risk management in bear markets, not in bull markets.” “We are in the business of making mistakes.  The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the losers make big mistakes and the winners make small mistakes.” “There are a [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 21, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,437 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 16, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Make new friends but keep the old, one is silver and the other is gold.” – Author Unknown The words above were etched on a wooden plaque that hung in my family’s kitchen.  Mom was sending us a message and she’d point us to those words anytime we were quick to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 14, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,435 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 9, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Your job as investors is to feel sick to your stomach. Do not invest when you are excited and everything is great… go shopping when things go on sale.” “We will have a recession sometime within the next 12 months.  It is not going to be different this time.” – [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 7, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,429 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

June 2, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The initial conditions or the starting point conditions, mean to me that a small degree of monetary restraint has a very quick and strong impact on economic activity.”  - Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., Hoisington Investment Management 2017 Strategic Investment [...]Read More >