September 18, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices. I’ve seen too many things go to zero, stocks and commodities. The whole trick in investing is: “How do I keep from losing everything?” If you use the 200-day moving [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 17, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,385 (previous close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem [...]Read More >

September 11, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We are in the midst in what we old fogeys tend to call a sell-stop avalanche. It happened before in history and most of them look like this. I know there are several theories about what has been causing the recent sharp weakness, but based on over six [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 9, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,400 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

September 4, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The most striking similarity between the 1920s and the 1990s bull markets is the notion that traditional measures of stock valuation have become obsolete.” – Edward Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost (via John Hussman) Welcome to September 2020. Hard to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 2, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,580 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

August 28, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” - From Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises Yesterday, from beautiful Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivered what [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 26, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,449 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

August 21, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The US is extremely important as it still provides the world with the most important reserve currency. Once faith in that currency declines and the US dollar enters a decisive multi-year bear cycle, hell could break loose.” – Felix Zulauf, Founder, Zulauf [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 19, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,392 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

August 14, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “It’s a battle between the Fed’s $750 billion SPV to buy corporate IG and HY bonds and those who don’t have access to this free money. And funds, like mine, are buying what the Fed is buying. Thus, the oversubscription of new offerings. ETFs must put the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 12, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,355 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

August 7, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” - Benjamin Graham, “the Father of Value Investing” and Author of The [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 6, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,327 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

July 31, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “So I’m agreeing with Gary on the deflation front but to a point. We know we’ve had a demand detonation, but at some point, at some point when we have herd immunity or we get a vaccine (in the next twenty-four months or so), demand will stabilize. I like to [...]Read More >