December 13, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “It hasn’t proven to be temporary. It hasn’t proved to be reversible without massive injections of liquidity. Which means that structural issues are playing a role.” – Mohamed A. El-Erian Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz (on Bloomberg TV) Let’s open this [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 11, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,138 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

December 6, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Given the high valuations I see, plus these divergences between many different indices, I am aware that many bull markets have ended with a rally similar to what we have seen since August.” – Ned Davis Founder, Ned Davis Research (CNBC) A few years ago, my [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 4, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,140 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 27, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,140 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

November 22, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "So the reason why we raised interest rates [in late 1999-2000] is because—generally is because we see inflation as moving up—or, in danger of moving up significantly, and we really don’t see that now." – Jerome H. Powell, Chair, Board of Governors of the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 20, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,107 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

November 15, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Even if you are on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” – Will Rogers I keep a dashboard of valuation indicators in my research folder, organized neatly by type. Right now, they are high. But how high and what does that mean? We’ll [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 13, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,092 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

November 8, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “In a world where growth is meager and monetary policy less effective, governments will have a much greater effect.” – Joe Kalish Chief Global Macro Strategist, Ned David Research On my way into Philadelphia for a breakfast meeting yesterday, I listened to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 6, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,076 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

November 1, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Cycles are inevitable. Every once in a while, an up- or down-leg goes on for a long time and/or to a great extreme, and people start to say ‘this time it’s different.’” – Howard Marks The Federal Reserve cut rates a quarter percent on Wednesday. Chairman [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 30, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,045 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

October 25, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "Experts discern a pattern: a louder-than-usual howl against elites in countries where democracy is a source of disappointment, corruption is seen as brazen, and a tiny political class lives large while the younger generation struggles to get by." - Declan [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 23, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,996 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >