August 17, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The deflationary period we’ve been in has come to an end.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research Last March, I shared with you GaveKal Research’s “Four Quadrants Framework.”  Louis-Vincent Gave presented at the March 2018 Mauldin [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 15, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,807 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

August 10, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.” “Everyone sort of lives with their rulers in the past and doesn’t look at coming changes.” “Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 8, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,857 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

August 3, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I don't want to scare the public, but we've never had QE. We've never had the reversal. Regulations are different. Monetary transmission is different. Governments have borrowed too much debt, and people can panic when things change.” – Jamie Dimon, Chairman [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 1, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,809 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 27, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “One last thing – as for this debate about the yield curve needing to invert to warrant a recession call, the reality is that at the ultra-low levels of rates, bloated central bank balance sheets that are in the process of gradually unwinding, and in the face of [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 25, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,817 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 20, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal "Curiosity leads to learning. As you expose yourselves to newer and richer experiences; you learn different things—some good, some bad—but all important to the journey of life. It is what you learn is all that matters." – "Prashant" in John Mauldin's “An [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 18, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,811 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 13, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The elephant in the room is and has always been the Federal Reserve since it has a very large say in what liquidity conditions are going to look like. I see the Fed continuing to raise rates, albeit gradually, and to also continue in its Quantitative Tightening [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 11, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,779 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 6, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The major signs that would herald the beginning of the next recession are not yet in place. Unemployment is low and likely to decline further; wages are rising, but not sharply; the Federal Reserve is tightening, but real interest rates are zero; inflation is [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 5, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,713 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

June 29, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Here we are doing something that almost seems like a suicide mission… increasing the size of the deficit while we’re raising interest rates.” – Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital I’d add to that quote by saying that the administration is doing everything [...]Read More >