March 13, 2020
By Steve Blumenthal
“We didn’t know then, just like we don’t know now,
how long or how sharp or shallow of a downturn we will face.”
– Alfred Lin,
Partner, Sequoia Capital
Sequoia Capital is a venture capital firm that invests in early stage businesses, providing seed or series A rounds—the funding rounds that come just after the money from friends and family runs out. They invest in, partner with, and advise early stage businesses and continue to make investments in those businesses to help them grow. Back in 2008, they summoned the leaders of their various portfolio companies to their offices. The presentation title? “RIP Good Times.” Sounds grim, but we’re not going there. This is about opportunity.
I came across Sequoia’s most recent letter to their partner firms. In 2008, Alfred Lin was COO/CFO of Zappos, one of those partner companies. From the most recent letter, this quote from Alfred Lin, now a partner at Sequoia: “We didn’t know then, just like we don’t know now, how long or how sharp or shallow of a downturn we will face. What I can confirm is that the (“RIP”) presentation made our team and our business stronger. Zappos emerged from the financial crisis ready to seize on opportunities after our competitors had been battered and bruised.”
Sequoia’s advice can be summed up in this quote: “As Darwin surmised, those who survive ‘are not the strongest or the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change.’” Sage advice for my business, your business, and every business. I’ve re-printed the letter below.
Each month, I share with you my favorite valuation charts. The idea here is to simply get our footing. I’m confident that when you invest in the stock market at a fair valuation your future returns will be about 10% per year. I’m confident that equity returns will be better than bond returns and have good data that suggests large-cap equity stocks will earn about 5% annually more than bonds over time. Makes sense; however, returns are not linear. Greed sends prices and valuations to nosebleed levels, and fear (investor panic selling, margin calls, and market makers stepping out of the way) drives prices back below long-term trend growth. Below is where opportunity is best. It looks like this:
Three weeks ago I wrote, “On My Radar: This is EUPHORIA, Wait for PESSIMISM.” Who knew we’d get to pessimism so quickly? My message is this: brace for more downside, but know that for the first time in years, stocks are near fairly priced and the bond market is what you should avoid (or trade tactically) at this point. It is likely that we’ll go lower toward the green “We’d be better off here” arrow.
Next is a chart I shared with one of our advisor partners yesterday. I think it does a good job translating the above back-of-the-napkin picture into real life.
Median Price-to-Earnings Ratio
The stock market (represented by the S&P 500 Index) has gained approximately 10% per year over time (the straight up-trending line in the above graphic). Call that the base return you can expect over many years. However, as we know, the ride to that 10% is bumpy. My view is that we can know when we can expect 10% per year, when we can expect 15% per year, and when we can expect 0-5% per year. It all has to do with the price we pay. We have to ask ourselves – are prices above, at, or below that 10.01% long-term line?
Long-time readers know I’ve been arguing for some time that the stock market was way overpriced. My message has been more defense than offense (broad diversification and downside risk management). The good news is the “coronavirus/oil price war” crash is bringing us back to the long-term equity line pictured in the back-of-the-napkin chart. The bad news is the risk to our and our family’s health.
I know the sell-off has you shaky. But the good news here is we are nearing “fair value.” This is a point at which we can expect better returns. Not quite there yet, but close. Here’s my logic.
- Over the last 56 years, median P/E has averaged 17.2. In English, if you ranked the price relative to earnings (earnings being the actual last 12 months of reported earnings) of each of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index from highest P/E to lowest P/E and took the one in the middle, you’d get to the median P/E. I like this method because it takes some of the accounting trickery, companies tend to play, out of the valuation equation. Not perfect, but I like this process best.
- Once we have median P/E, I believe we can then get some good footing on where “fair value” might be.
- The idea is to identify the price in the market that is “fair value” because that is the entry point at which we will earn that 10% annualized long-term equity return. The straight line in the above cycle chart. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future performance, etc., etc., etc. But the historical data does give us a logical base line.
- I argue that the 56-year median P/E of 17.2 (data in chart below) is the point at which the market is fairly priced and the entry point at which you may expect that historical 10.01% annualized return.
Here is how to read the chart:
- Plotted is month-end data so the chart is through 2-29-2020.
- Yesterday, 3-12-2020, the S&P 500 closed at 2,480.64, down from a high of 3,393.52.
- Focus on the lower black arrow in the chart. It is telling us that the current “Median Fair Value” is 2,333.83.
Now, the reality is that we are not yet out of the current crisis. If we drop to “Undervalued,” the forward return opportunity will be exceptional. And I think we might just get there. We’ll likely look back and see that recession started in Q2 2020. There are too many bad credits out there and defaults will spike in recession. This is something that could set up an outstanding investment opportunity in our CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program. I’m not wishing ill on any business, but recessions are really good for our trading strategy. I suspect this coming opportunity will be best in my 30 years of trading. We’ll see.
The “Undervalued” target on the S&P 500 Index is 1,615.96. That will be the point at which we reach maximum fear and the moment the getting gets best. Then, expect forward 10-year returns to be 15% per year. We might get there.
I don’t think we are out of the woods. But the time to de-risk was when prices were high and valuations “Overvalued.” The high point in the cycle chart. The time to get really aggressive on equities will be when prices are below the long-term 10% growth trend line in the back-of-the-napkin chart above or below 2,333 in the S&P 500. If, like 2008, full panic sets in, step up to the plate at the point of maximum pessimism.
Where will that extra cash come from? Look, your bonds will no longer help you. Shift cash from bonds and buy when everyone else panics. Not a specific recommendation for you, as I know nothing about your personal financial situation. Please do have a conversation with your advisor. Just planting an idea seed for you.
I wrote about EUPHORIA three weeks ago. Maybe it’s because we all have access to second-by-second news at our fingertips. We seem to be nearing PESSIMISM, but as the research note from Felix Zulauf that crossed my desk seconds ago advised, “Don’t catch a falling knife.” We might not yet be there. Perhaps things happen more quickly than in the past and we should factor that into our thinking. I’ll dig into Felix’s piece this weekend.
Years ago, Mauldin wrote what I feel is his greatest piece to date. It was about “Sandpiles” and “Fingers of Instability.” From his note,
In 1987 three physicists named Per Bak, Chao Tang, and Kurt Wiesenfeld began to play the sandpile game in their lab at Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York. Actually piling up one grain of sand at a time is a slow process, so they wrote a computer program to do it. Not as much fun but a whole lot faster. Not that they really cared about sandpiles. They were more interested in what are called nonequilibrium systems.
They learned some interesting things. What is the typical size of an avalanche? After a huge number of tests with millions of grains of sand, they found out there is no typical number:
Some involved a single grain; others, ten, a hundred, or a thousand. Still others were pile-wide cataclysms involving millions that brought nearly the whole mountain down. At any time, literally anything, it seemed, might be just about to occur.
It’s about instability in complex systems and I encourage you to read the full piece here.
I’m a skier. There is no greater high for a skier than the feeling of floating down a mountain on top of several feet of fresh powder snow. We can know when the risk of avalanche is highest, but we don’t know which snowflake (or skier above) might trip the slide. Who knew that the economic snowflake would originate from an animal and fish market in Wuhan, China? What we did know is that risk was high and reward was not good.
I continue to believe that the big problems are in the sovereign debt and corporate credit markets. Europe is an advancing mess. Watch the banking system. The “canary in the coal mine” here are repurchase agreements, also known as the “repo market.” The repo market is not functioning properly. Banks don’t trust banks. The Fed just stepped in with another $1.5 trillion this week. Remember, this was supposed to be a short-term problem that was to go away at year-end. $1.5 trillion yesterday. We are nearing $2.5 trillion in Fed repo market support. I recall writing about the sub-prime mortgage crisis, believing it would be a $400 billion problem. It was several trillion. The repo market today? Something stinks! So no, I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet.
The Fed can’t help the market alone. They can invent some new tricks, but with rates likely to be back at zero percent after the Fed meeting next week, they need broader tools. A fiscal solution will be invented, but I just don’t see Nancy and Donald—nor Dems and Republicans—playing nice and doing what we elected them to do, to be “For the People.” That’s not in their current calculus. So, I’m doubtful the needed fiscal lift is near. The great debt reset remains ahead.
One last thought before you click through. On February 15, 2019, I wrote On My Radar: 19 for 19, A Probable Retest of the December Low. Recall the 20% Q4 2018 correction. What I was referring to was that there has always been a re-test of a major correction low point.
In February 2019, Bryce Coward, CFA wrote a piece called, “Putting this Rally Into Historical Context.” His important find was that in 19 of 19 post-war instances of a 15% uninterrupted decline (excluding the current one), the stock market ended up re-testing the waterfall low in some fashion. Basically, markets tend to rally after “waterfall” declines. Until recently, test case #20 (Q4 2018) was the outlier. That low has now been re-tested. Interestingly, the December 2018 Christmas eve low was 2,346.58. Not far from the current median P/E “Fair Value” of 2,333.83.
Twenty for 20. Tested – check!
I expect the market will find some footing around the December 2018 low and current “fair value.” In the data from Bruce Coward is a summary of the post-waterfall recoveries. So, expect some bounce from the current waterfall decline and if you are younger, don’t worry. Keep investing. The good news is the equity market forward return forecast has improved.
Note: We really stop at “fair value,” so I suspect an even better entry point ahead. Keep the median P/E fair and undervalued targets top of mind. At CMG, we stick to process. We’ll look to overweight our clients’ moderate and growth portfolios to equities then. We utilize several risk management rules, and while none are perfect, I’m happy with our positioning.
Lastly, yes… you can argue that earnings are going to come down significantly due to the global pandemic and that is true. But I believe we’ll look back and see it to be a blip on the chart and we’ll get back growing again. Businesses grow fairly predictably over time. I’m sticking to the long-term median P/E data as my forward 10-year investment return road map.
I promised last week that I’d share my notes from an excellent presentation on leadership by Carl Petty, Director of Leadership and Organizational Effectiveness at WisdomTree Investments, Inc. at the WallachBeth Winter Symposium; however, much has happened and I wanted to share with you my thoughts on the current state of the markets. Let’s bump the leadership notes to next week.
Below you’ll find that excellent letter from Sequoia Capital to their business partners. The letter is about preparing for and prospering through crisis. I found it helpful in shaping discussions with my team. The link to the most recent Trade Signals post, along with commentary, is included as well.
Grab that coffee, find your favorite chair, or maybe reach for a Manhattan “up” or “on the rocks.” It’s been a rough week! Hope you are doing okay.
If a friend forwarded this email to you and you’d like to be on the weekly list, you can sign up to receive my free On My Radar letter here.
Included in this week’s On My Radar:
- Sound Business Advice from Sequoia Capital
- Blumenthal and Ed Lopez Video Interview from the 2020 Inside ETFs Conference
- Trade Signals – Why Risk Management?
- Personal Note – Grounded
Since 1972, Sequoia Capital has partnered with the founders of companies early on and supported every stage of their growth. Now, those companies have an aggregate public market value of over $3.3 trillion. Companies like Cisco, Paypal, Yahoo, YouTube, WhatsApp, Zappos, and Zoom, just to name a handful. They understand businesses.
Here’s the letter they wrote to their partner companies:
Dear Founders & CEOs,
Coronavirus is the black swan of 2020. Some of you (and some of us) have already been personally impacted by the virus. We know the stress you are under and are here to help. With lives at risk, we hope that conditions improve as quickly as possible. In the interim, we should brace ourselves for turbulence and have a prepared mindset for the scenarios that may play out.
All of you have been inundated by suggestions for precautions to take around COVID-19 to protect the health and welfare of you, your employees, and your families. Like many, we have studied the available information and would be happy to share our point of view — please let us know if that is of interest. This note is about something else: ensuring the health of your business while dealing with potential business consequences of the spreading effects of the virus.
Unfortunately, because of Sequoia’s presence in many regions around the world, we are gaining first-hand knowledge of coronavirus’ effects on global business. As with all crises, there are some businesses that stand to benefit. However, many companies in frontline countries are facing challenges as a result of the virus outbreak, including:
- Drop in business activity. Some companies have seen their growth rates drop sharply between December and February. Several companies that were on track are now at risk of missing their Q1–2020 plans as the effects of the virus ripple wider.
- Supply chain disruptions.The unprecedented lockdown in China is directly impacting global supply chains. Hardware, direct-to-consumer, and retailing companies may need to find alternative suppliers. Pure software companies are less exposed to supply chain disruptions, but remain at risk due to cascading economic effects.
- Curtailment of travel and canceled meetings.Many companies have banned all “non-essential” travel and some have banned all international travel. While travel companies are directly impacted, all companies that depend on in-person meetings to conduct sales, business development, or partnership discussions are being affected.
It will take considerable time — perhaps several quarters — before we can be confident that the virus has been contained. It will take even longer for the global economy to recover its footing. Some of you may experience softening demand; some of you may face supply challenges. While The Fed and other central banks can cut interest rates, monetary policy may prove a blunt tool in alleviating the economic ramifications of a global health crisis.
We suggest you question every assumption about your business, including:
- Cash runway. Do you really have as much runway as you think? Could you withstand a few poor quarters if the economy sputters? Have you made contingency plans? Where could you trim expenses without fundamentally hurting the business? Ask these questions now to avoid potentially painful future consequences.
- Private financings could soften significantly, as happened in 2001 and 2009. What would you do if fundraising on attractive terms proves difficult in 2020 and 2021? Could you turn a challenging situation into an opportunity to set yourself up for enduring success? Many of the most iconic companies were forged and shaped during difficult times. We partnered with Cisco shortly after Black Monday in 1987. Google and PayPal soldiered through the aftermath of the dot-com bust. More recently, Airbnb, Square, and Stripe were founded in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis. Constraints focus the mind and provide fertile ground for creativity.
- Sales forecasts. Even if you don’t see any direct or immediate exposure for your company, anticipate that your customers may revise their spending habits. Deals that seemed certain may not close. The key is to not be caught flat-footed.
- With softening sales, you might find that your customer lifetime values have declined, in turn suggesting the need to rein in customer acquisition spending to maintain consistent returns on marketing spending. With greater economic and fundraising uncertainty, you might even want to consider raising the bar on ROI for marketing spend.
- Given all of the above stress points on your finances, this might be a time to evaluate critically whether you can do more with less and raise productivity.
- Capital spending. Until you have charted a course to financial independence, examine whether your capital spending plans are sensible in a more uncertain environment. Perhaps there is no reason to change plans and, for all you know, changing circumstances may even present opportunities to accelerate. But these are decisions that should be deliberate.
Having weathered every business downturn for nearly fifty years, we’ve learned an important lesson — nobody ever regrets making fast and decisive adjustments to changing circumstances. In downturns, revenue and cash levels always fall faster than expenses. In some ways, business mirrors biology. As Darwin surmised, those who survive “are not the strongest or the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change.”
A distinctive feature of enduring companies is the way their leaders react to moments like these. Your employees are all aware of COVID-19 and are wondering how you will react and what it means for them. False optimism can easily lead you astray and prevent you from making contingency plans or taking bold action. Avoid this trap by being clinically realistic and acting decisively as circumstances change. Demonstrate the leadership your team needs during this stressful time.
Here is some perspective from our partner Alfred Lin, who lived through another black swan moment as an operating executive:
“I was serving as the COO/CFO of Zappos when I was summoned to Sequoia’s office for the infamous R.I.P. Good Times presentation in 2008, prior to the financial crisis. We didn’t know then, just like we don’t know now, how long or how sharp or shallow of a downturn we will face. What I can confirm is that the presentation made our team and our business stronger. Zappos emerged from the financial crisis ready to seize on opportunities after our competitors had been battered and bruised.”
Stay healthy, keep your company healthy, and put a dent in the world.
The interview was great fun and the location was spectacular. Click on the picture below for the full interview:
Also, this interesting tweet today from VanEck’s David Schassler (@schassler) on historic drawdown comparisons:
- 2020 was the fastest -25% drawdown in history.
- It beat 1929 by 11 days.
- We knew it was fast but wow…
March 11, 2020
S&P 500 Index — 2,791
Notable this week:
“The credit markets see a default cycle ahead and make no mistake,
this is a negative credit shock of immense proportions.”
– David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research
In the realm of stock market analysis, “perfect” is elusive, but getting an edge that is useful is something great. That is why we at CMG believe diversifying to asset classes and utilizing several different stop-loss risk management processes is the best way to grow and defend your wealth. We are quite pleased with how our portfolios are responding to the current market crisis. I’ve been writing about the challenges recessions present and my belief that the next recession will be particularly challenging due to the massive amount of debt. Let’s talk about recession risks and we’ll take a look at what our various risk management signals are telling us.
Recession: There is now a high risk of recession within the next six months.
My favorite recession watch indicators update post each month-end. I’m going to get out in front of the March 2020 month-end indicators and make a bold call: The beginning of the next recession starts in Q2 2020 – perhaps as early as March. It takes two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth to officially identify recessions. The challenge is we know that only in hindsight. The further challenge is that the stock market declines approximately 36% or more in recessions. The last two got us -50%. The next will prove more challenging due to large amount of low-rated, high-risk debt. If we are indeed entering recession, as I believe, the current -20%, while painful, is nothing like -50%. One needs a 25% subsequent return to get back to even after a -20% loss. One needs 100% just to get back to even after a -50% loss.
I believe the coronavirus and the oil price war are enough of a shock to tip the cards. One of my favorite recession watch indicators is the stock market. My 30 years of experience trading the high yield bond market that tells me that, at major turning points, the HY market leads the stock market and the stock market leads the economy. The CMG Managed High Yield Bond program moved to a sell signal two weeks ago (near the high), the stock market has since followed. It is important to note that not all signals win (some create small whipsaw trades) and that major turns come infrequently but this one is well worth watching.
Because the stock market is a leading indicator for the economy, I like The Economy Based on the Stock Market Indicator recession indicator (updated through February 2020 in the Recession Indicator section below). It has a 77% correct signal history dating back to 1948. It does not trigger often, nor do recessions occur often (just one to two in each of the decades since 1950 with the only exception being the last decade). The process looks at the trend in the stock market relative to its five-month smoothed moving average. When the stock market falls below its smoothed moving average line by 4.8%, a recession signal is triggered. The process updates once a month; however, if we look at where the indicator is today, a recession trigger just fired. Absent a large gain in the stock market by month end, by this indicator, there is now a High U.S. Recession Risk.
It’s not the 15% to 20% declines that cause the most trouble, it is the -40% to -60% that take so long to recover from. We believe job number one is defending wealth. If we can protect our clients’ core wealth, it enables us to invest small amounts into special situation opportunities. Defend and grow the core and strategically invest where we see outsized opportunities. If a 2-3% allocation fails, your return may be down 2-3% that year. If it wins to the potential we believe, it can meaningfully enhance wealth. Anyway, that’s how we think about wealth management. Let’s look at ideas around growing and defending your core.
Below, in the “Dashboard” section, the various equity market trend signals are turning “risk off.” Volume Demand (buyers) vs. Volume Supply (sellers) moved to a Sell Signal, which is bearish for equities. The CMG Ned Davis Research US Large Cap Long/Flat model is nearing a sell signal, as are the 200-day moving average S&P 500 and NASDAQ trade signals. The Zweig Bond Model remains bullish on high quality bonds. The HY market is in a significant sell-off. That is where we see the greatest risks and the coming greatest rewards. Investor pessimism is extremely bearish, which is short-term bullish for equities. Market support will likely come from the Fed. We see little appetite for a fiscal response getting through Congress at this time.
If you are a CMG client, here are a few strategy updates:
CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program – Traded to short-term Treasury Bill (cash) exposure a few weeks ago. Seeking lower price re-entry opportunity at higher yields.
CMG Large Cap Long/Flat Strategy – remains invested in S&P 500 Index exposure via a low-fee ETF (signal is nearing a sell signal).
CMG Beta Rotation Strategy – the strategy remains positive for the year and is considerably outperforming the S&P. This is due to the allocation to the utility sector in late January. The strategy also incorporates a stop-loss risk rule that is tied to a moving average rule that looks at short-term, medium-term and long-term trends.
CMG Mauldin Smart Core Strategy – A combination of four distinct trading strategies. The strategy is performing as we anticipated and we are pleased. About 26% equity exposure, 68% in various government bond ETFs, and 6% gold. The bond and gold positions have performed particularly well. The four strategies can move between various asset classes.
CMG High and Growing Dividend ETFs – The strategy allocates to a handful of ETFs that meet our standards. Five moving average signals are used that range from short-term, medium-term to long-term. When the price of any ETF is below four of the five moving averages, the ETF is positioned to a Treasury bill ETF. Stop-loss triggers have been reached on several of the ETFs.
CMG Tactical All Asset Strategy (formerly the CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy) – The portfolio has continued to reduce equity risk exposure. Currently allocated to 30% Treasury bills (cash), 10% gold, 10% long-duration government bonds, 10% utility sector, 20% equities, 10% corporate bonds and 10% emerging market bonds. Overall, the strategy is performing well.
The coronavirus is a black swan-like shock to the economic system and the oil industry is facing a three-sided attack: falling prices, a move of institutional investors to divest from fossil fuel companies, and crushing debt loads. Debt is the problem. The U.S. oil and gas industry has about $86 billion of rated debt due in the next four years, according to Moody’s. Nearly all of that debt is either junk rated, or rated just above junk. Fifty-seven percent of that is due in just the next two years. As oil prices fall and credit markets tighten, many companies won’t be able to refinance their debts or extend maturities.
Diversified portfolios, especially if risk-managed, should be holding up well. It’s not -20% we should fear, it is the -40% to -70% we need to protect our wealth against. No risk management process is perfect; thus, diversify to asset classes and diversify risk management processes. And stick to the game plan. A much better investment opportunity is ahead. Let’s get to it in good health both physically and financially.
Not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any security. For information purposes only. Please talk with your advisor about needs, goals, time horizon and risk tolerances.
Click here for this week’s Trade Signals.
“With the new day comes new strength and new thoughts.”
– Eleanor Roosevelt
I’m halting all travel for the next 30 days or so. My team has gently encouraged me to do so and I think they are right. A global pandemic. Not to be taken lightly. A good model for us to key in on in terms of data is Italy. We’ll all get to the other side of this. Let’s get there with our health in great shape. Know that I’m thinking about you and your family.
I was to travel to NYC this morning for a lunchtime meeting with business partners John Mauldin, Kevin Malone, and David Bahnsen. But I’m grounded and I’m going to gently encourage my friends to do the same. Thankfully, we have Skype, Zoom meetings, and FaceTime. Imagine how far we’ve come in less than 10 years. Technology is awesome.
Most of the firms we work with have contingency plans and I bet you do too. Though there is great value in team chemistry, cloud servers, home computers, and cell phones keep us connected all the time. I don’t see much downside, so plug in and be safe. And listen to your mother – wash your hands a lot.
I flew to NYC from Salt Lake City last Wednesday evening. Landed at midnight and taxied to my hotel. The SLC airport was packed, but it had been eerily quiet in NYC.
I woke early and grabbed a coffee at a popular coffee house. The barista said the customer flow had been really off. Offices are closed, towns are quarantined, schools are closing (or moving to online study) the NHL, NBA, MLB, and MLS have all suspended their seasons. No March Madness. The Masters is postponed. The summer Olympics is up next? It makes sense to do what we can to stop the spread. My hands are about to crack from all the hand washing, but hand wash we must. Stay well!
I was fortunate to have a few days after the Park City conference in Snowbird, Utah. Down one canyon and up the next. Snowbird gets the best snow in the country—nearly twice as much as neighboring Park City. Somehow the location and shape of mountains holds a storm in place just a little bit longer. We had one fun powder day and then great sunshine.
Here is a shot of me with the Blumenthal three riding the Peruvian chairlift to the summit. Stepson Kieran didn’t make the shot and Susan and her two other boys couldn’t make the trip. This is year number 40 for me and Snowbird. And it’s been more than 20 years for the kids. Hard to believe. Nothing better than being with family—was a very fun day!
I’m looking forward to sharing the leadership presentation notes with you next week and I’m going to try to do a podcast with Carl Petty—he’s something special. Until then and beyond, stay well, love life, and enjoy the ride.
Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management.
Click here to receive his free weekly e-letter.
Follow Steve on Twitter @SBlumenthalCMG and LinkedIn.
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