Research & Insight
Since 1992, CMG has embraced uncommon solutions –– the application of tactical investments as part of a progressive diversification philosophy –– to help investors successfully navigate the challenges of today’s investment world.
To enlighten those decisions, we make our insights, opinions, and research available in a variety of forms: Newsletters, white papers, economic commentary and weekly market updates. It’s a great library of information and it’s open 24/7/365. That way, you can drop by anytime.
Steve's monthly examination of the global economic landscape and what he sees as the most relevant and vital market sectors to be watched.
On My Radar
Steve's weekly debriefing identifies the most relevant market events of the past week and discusses how he sees these events impacting the market.
Steve's "risk on - risk off" call on market volatility and adjusting portfolio positioning for the market conditions. Steve illustrates his outlook on a weekly basis through the use of Sentiment Charts.
Facts and figures tell the story and help make decisions.
Stay ahead of the game by tracking the news.
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Most Recent Stories
S&P 500 Index 2009 By Steve Blumenthal January 28, 2014 The most recent trend and sentiment evidence is updated below. The trend remains positive for both equities and fixed income securities. Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Cyclical Bullish Trend for Stocks Remains Volume Demand Continues to Better Volume Supply […]
CMG Q4 2014 Quarterly Performance Update - 01-27-2015
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2014 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG Classic Blends. We have also reflected […]
On My Radar: I See Opportunity - 01-23-2015
January 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I often disdain economic forecasts as a stock market indicator. First, the consensus forecasts of economics are often wrong, and more importantly, the stock market tends to lead the economy, so it is like trying to put the cart in front of the horse.” Ned Davis – Relative Macro […]
S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal January 21, 2014 Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed evidence remains favorable (following chart) as do my two favorite cyclical trend indicators (Big Momentum and 13/34-Week EMA). Daily Investor Sentiment is reading Extreme Pessimism – a short-term bullish signal for stocks. Looking at bonds, the Zweig Bond […]
On My Radar – Global Deflation - 01-16-2015
January 16, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “All I can do is advise you on what has happened before. Once one country goes, capital will look around and turn on whoever they think is next. Eventually, this will move from one to the next. The dollar will be the last man standing. After that, we are […]
Trade Signals – Margin Debt, Sentiment and Liquidity - 01-14-2015
S&P 500 Index 2010 By Steve Blumenthal January 14, 2014 Today, along with the updated cyclical trend and sentiment charts, let’s take a look at margin debt and liquidity. You’ll see that margin debt is at a record high and liquidity is very low – not a favorable combination. However, the cyclical trend evidence remains […]
How I Think About Investor Sentiment - 01-14-2015
NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: Neutral (Neutral for Stocks) If you are a new reader, the gray area highlights the historical market performance when Investor Sentiment, as measured by Ned Davis Research, moves into the Extreme Optimism (Bearish) Zone (above the dotted black line or a reading of 66). The weekly NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll […]
On My Radar: It’s All About That Fed – Again - 01-9-2015
January 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “We shouldn’t be raising rates before 2016.” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Evans, a voting member on the central bank’s policymaking committee, told CNBC this week. The market responded favorably. Evans said he’s hopeful that inflation will pick up. “I’d like to have more confidence that we’re going to […]
S&P 500 Index 2026 By Steve Blumenthal January 7, 2015 The last several Investor Sentiment extremes (too much optimism) have done a pretty good job at identifying market correction turning points. After peaking at the second highest reading since late 2004, the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is now back to neutral. Five days of serious […]
13/34-Week EMA Trend Chart: Cyclical Bullish Trend for Stocks Remains Following is a look at the S&P 500 index 13-Week (blue line) vs. 34-Week (red line). Bull and Bear market cycles are clearly defined. Bullish trend when blue line is above red line. EMA or exponential moving average is used. EMA is a type […]