Research & Insight
Since 1992, CMG has embraced uncommon solutions –– the application of tactical investments as part of a progressive diversification philosophy –– to help investors successfully navigate the challenges of today’s investment world.
To enlighten those decisions, we make our insights, opinions, and research available in a variety of forms: Newsletters, white papers, economic commentary and weekly market updates. It’s a great library of information and it’s open 24/7/365. That way, you can drop by anytime.
Steve's monthly examination of the global economic landscape and what he sees as the most relevant and vital market sectors to be watched.
On My Radar
Steve's weekly debriefing identifies the most relevant market events of the past week and discusses how he sees these events impacting the market.
Steve's "risk on - risk off" call on market volatility and adjusting portfolio positioning for the market conditions. Steve illustrates his outlook on a weekly basis through the use of Sentiment Charts.
Facts and figures tell the story and help make decisions.
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Most Recent Stories
On My Radar: It’s All About That Fed, ‘Bout That Fed - 09-12-2014
By Steve Blumenthal September 12, 2014 “All About That Bass Because you know I’m all about that bass ‘Bout that bass, no treble I’m all about that bass ‘Bout that bass, no treble” It’s about a 35 minute drive to school each morning and, frankly, it is some of the best quiet time I have […]
S&P 500 Index 1984 By Steve Blumenthal September 10, 2014 We can look at valuation measures to asses the degree of market risk and to get an idea as to what forward probable returns might look like (by most all measures, low). Yet overvalued markets can grow to be more and more overvalued. In this […]
On My Radar: Higher We Go - 09-5-2014
September 5, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Higher we go! While valuation and sentiment data scream caution, trend data and Fed policy tells us to continue the ride. Today, let’s take a look at the latest valuation charts and an updated look at Don’t Fight the Fed or the Tape. As you’ll see, the mean fair […]
S&P 500 Index 2002 By Steve Blumenthal September 3, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Cyclical Bullish Trend for Stocks Remains (as measured by Big Mo and 13/34-Week EMA S&P 500 Index chart) Weekly Investor Sentiment Indicator – NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: Extreme Optimism (Bearish for the Market) Daily Investor […]
On My Radar: Half-Full Growth Rates - 08-29-2014
August 29, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal As we enter the last weekend of the summer, a bummer of a thought though I do favor the fall, I thought I’d keep this piece short and share with you what I found to be a very balanced and well thought-out view on the current state of the […]
Trade Signals: Trend & Sentiment Evidence - 08-27-2014
S&P 500 Index 1997 By Steve Blumenthal August 27, 2014 I posted the following chart on Wednesday, August 13. Short-term sentiment was extremely negative suggesting an oversold rally for the market. The S&P 500 Index was at 1933. It closed above 2000 for the first time in history yesterday. General thoughts on the market: the cyclical […]
Bloomberg: Blumenthal on Bond Trends - 08-26-2014
CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal spoke to Bloomberg News about about trends in the bond market. The story by By Sridhar Natarajan and Matt Robinson, Junk Bonds Overtaken by High Grade as 2014’s Favored Bet, begins: Bonds sold by investment-grade companies worldwide are on pace to deliver something they’ve managed only twice in the […]
On My Radar: “Very Far From Normal” - 08-22-2014
August 22, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal To me, the next cyclical market down trend is linked to Fed Policy and the timing of their change in interest rate policy. For now, I remain in the Don’t Fight the Fed or The Trend camp (constructive on equities). So what happens when the Fed raises interest rates? Do […]
S&P 500 Index 1983 By Steve Blumenthal August 20, 2014 The following commentary is unchanged from last week’s post – the charts are updated through today: Despite my personal feelings that: the cyclical bull market is aged, profit margins have likely peaked (and will likely mean revert), the market is meaningfully overvalued and over-owned, and […]
On My Radar: Teach Them to Fly - 08-15-2014
August 15, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal There is an argument being made that the currently high valuation measures (PE, dividends, price to book, price to sales) are really not so high when you consider that today’s interest rates are so low. The thinking is that today’s ultra-low interest rates make the stock market undervalued. The […]