Research & Insight

  September 20, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Risk is the probability of loss." — Howard Marks I’m a big fan of Howard Marks’s Memos on investing strategies, and I bet you are, too. The investing world has its own vocabulary, and when writing about it, many in the industry often struggle [...]Read More >

  September 13, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "We are here, we'd be better off here." — Steve Blumenthal, CMG, On My Radar   We talked about valuations last week and received many thoughtful responses. I want to share one particularly excellent one from Dan S: "Hi Steve, I have [...]Read More >

  September 6, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "It’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s whether you get up." — Vince Lombardi Bonds now, stocks later.  When I started in the business in 1984, few investors thought long-term. Most believed the way to succeed was to trade the market. [...]Read More >

  August 30, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal Dr. Lacy Hunt argues that the Fed's current policy stance is too restrictive for the economy's growth rate. He points out that the average growth of real per capita GDP and GDI is around 1.4%, aligning with the long-term trend since the 1970s. With [...]Read More >

  August 23, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman  Located in the heart of the Teton Mountain Range, Jackson Hole is a sunlit paradise in the summer and a powdery haven for skiers in the winter. Wildflowers bloom in [...]Read More >

  August 16, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "We're caught in a trap I can't walk out Because I love you too much, baby" - Elvis Presley, Suspicious Minds July, consumer prices didn't rise as much as they have in the past, aligning with what experts expected. However, the cost of shelter [...]Read More >

  August 9, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "It's the things you learn after you know it all that count." - Coach John Wooden's personal note to Bill Walton  Last Monday, the yen surged, and Tokyo's stock market plunged as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate to a [...]Read More >

  August 2, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal The Sahm Rule triggered the recession call today. The (data) shows that the +80 bp jump in the jobless rate over the past year is a 100% iron-clad indicator that the downturn has either arrived or is about to. The Fed is as behind the economic curve [...]Read More >

  July 26, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "I changed my mind. The Fed needs to cut rates now." - Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President, Source: Bloomberg After an initial bounce Thursday morning, the equity markets reversed course late afternoon. The S&P 500 declined 0.51%, and [...]Read More >

  July 19, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives. Choice, not chance, determines your destiny." - Dr. Aristotle  There is good [...]Read More >