January 17, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The last five major global cyclical events were the early 1990s recession — largely occasioned by the U.S. Savings & Loan crisis, the collapse of Japan Inc. after the stock market crash of 1990, the Asian crisis of the mid-1990s, the fabulous technology [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Despite Domestic and Global Issues, Bullish Market Trends Continue - 01-15-2020
By Steve Blumenthal January 15, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,282 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2020 Predictions - 01-10-2020
January 10, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Interest Rates are Key to Risk Assets in 2020 - 01-8-2020
By Steve Blumenthal January 8, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,258 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Happy New Decade – Current Conditions, Market Cycles, and a Game Plan - 01-3-2020
January 3, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “First, investors should understand that the present combination of low interest rates and elevated stock market valuations implies low prospective returns on the entire portfolio mix. Last week, our estimate of prospective 12-year nominal total returns on a [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Welcome to 2020! Equity Signals Continue to Flash Green, Extreme Investor Optimism Signals Caution - 01-2-2020
By Steve Blumenthal January 2, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,230 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Trade of a Lifetime is Forming - 12-20-2019
December 20, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I will go to my grave believing that the financial crisis happened because of bubbles made by easy money.” – Stan Druckenmiller, Former Chairman and President, Duquesne Capital (Bloomberg Interview) I’ve seen three outstanding buying opportunities in my [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – An Eye on Inflation - 12-18-2019
By Steve Blumenthal December 18, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,138 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Greatest Trade Ever - 12-13-2019
December 13, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “It hasn’t proven to be temporary. It hasn’t proved to be reversible without massive injections of liquidity. Which means that structural issues are playing a role.” – Mohamed A. El-Erian Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz (on Bloomberg TV) Let’s open this [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Comparative Investment Returns Since 1926 - 12-11-2019
By Steve Blumenthal December 11, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,138 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Euphoric Blow-Off Top? - 12-6-2019
December 6, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Given the high valuations I see, plus these divergences between many different indices, I am aware that many bull markets have ended with a rally similar to what we have seen since August.” – Ned Davis Founder, Ned Davis Research (CNBC) A few years ago, my [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Equity and Fixed Income Trends Continue; U.S. Manufacturing Concerns or Not? - 12-4-2019
By Steve Blumenthal December 4, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,140 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Late Cycle, Aged Bull Market, Bullish Technical Signals - 11-27-2019
By Steve Blumenthal November 27, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,140 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: What Inflation Means for You - 11-22-2019
November 22, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "So the reason why we raised interest rates [in late 1999-2000] is because—generally is because we see inflation as moving up—or, in danger of moving up significantly, and we really don’t see that now." – Jerome H. Powell, Chair, Board of Governors of the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Low Inflation Regime Remains - 11-20-2019
By Steve Blumenthal November 20, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,107 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
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