S&P 500 Index 2094 By Steve Blumenthal December 2, 2015 There is improvement in several of the charts this week. Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed has moved back to neutral from -2. For now, that is good news. You’ll also see that the trend data as measured by a weekly moving average [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Rich Man Poor Man - 11-25-2015
S&P 500 Index 2089 By Steve Blumenthal November 25, 2015 Overall, from a trading perspective, I am now with a neutral view on equities. Our CMG NDR Momentum Index (my favorite measure) which looks at momentum and market breadth remains in a sell signal. However, the weekly 13-week vs. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Global Recession a High Probability - 11-20-2015
November 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I have long made the claim that the transnational nature of Europe cannot be sustained. The divergent economic interests of EU countries, some with unemployment over 20 percent, some with it under 5 percent, meant that it was impossible for all of them to [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Watch Out for Minus 2 (Don’t Fight the Tape or The Fed Indicator is in a Rare -2 Model Reading) – A Strong Sell Signal (Hedge!) - 11-18-2015
S&P 500 Index 2071 By Steve Blumenthal November 18, 2015 The significant signal this week is the -2 reading on the Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed model. The model looks at the technical health of the broad equity market (how are most stocks doing across the various sectors). When the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Poking at the Beehive - 11-13-2015
November 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “The European Central Bank is likely to continue negative rates, extend and enlarge QE, and acquire more balance sheet assets over time. ECB policy influences other nearby non-euro jurisdictions. Essentially, all short-term interest rates of [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Excessive Optimism Remains Despite Market Decline (ST Negative for Equities) - 11-11-2015
S&P 500 Index 2075 By Steve Blumenthal November 11, 2015 Following below is my market, investor sentiment and economic dashboard. Notable this week is that excessive optimism remains despite the recent market sell-off. Excessive optimism is short-term negative for equities. Our trend [...]Read More >
Strange Bedfellows: Advisors & Robos - 11-10-2015
By Cinthia Murphy November 4, 2015 There’s much soul searching in the financial advice industry these days. What will its future look like? Thanks to a leap in financial technology, largely at the hands of robo advisors, traditional advisors today are faced with a changing relationship with [...]Read More >
Forbes: Using ETFs And Options To Hedge Equity Exposure In An Overvalued Market - 11-9-2015
10/25/2015 @ 11:17 AM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor CMG Capital Management Group CEO writes about hedging equity exposure in overvalued markets in his latest Forbes article titled Using ETFs And Options To Hedge Equity Exposure In An Overvalued Market. Some excerpts from the piece: "Many [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Resolve To Keep Happy - 11-6-2015
November 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “U.S. interest rates are already zero. Japanese interest rates are zero also. European interest rates are negative. All of these central banks have printed trillions of dollars in their respective currencies under various QE programs. They are at the point [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Excessive Optimism (ST Bearish), High Global Recession Risk, No Sign of U.S. Recession - 11-4-2015
S&P 500 Index 2109 By Steve Blumenthal November 4, 2015 Following below is my market, investor sentiment and economic dashboard. In short, excessive optimism is short-term bearish for stocks, there is a high risk of global recession (strong data/chart below), no signs of a U.S. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Defending Diversification - 10-30-2015
October 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Whatever the form of risk and risk measurement one uses, the important thing to know is that diversification reduces risk and can be used to reduce risks without reducing returns.” – Ray Dalio Ray Dalio’s “risk parity” or “all weather” investment process has [...]Read More >
On My Radar: I’m Rooting For Ray! - 10-23-2015
October 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it — even though others may hesitate or differ. (You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – At Technical Resistance, ST Sentiment is Neutral - 10-21-2015
S&P 500 Index 2030 By Steve Blumenthal October 21, 2015 Investor sentiment has moved from “extremely pessimistic” (which is short-term bullish for the market) to neutral; however, the daily sentiment indicator is nearing “extreme optimism” (which would be short-term bearish for the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Equity Valuations & Portfolio Positioning - 10-9-2015
October 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "Facing up" to returns that will be less than the historical norm is the "single largest factor out there we have to deal with." – AQR’s Cliff Asness Valuation work seems to be showing up everywhere. Being the data geek I am, each month I like to take a look [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – No Go Says Big Mo, Zweig Model Bullish On Bonds - 10-7-2015
S&P 500 Index 1990 By Steve Blumenthal October 7, 2015 The market has rallied 100 points since last week. We have reached a point of logical overhead resistance. I share a few updates on our tactical strategies (continuing to pivot to bonds) and highlight an S&P 500 Index chart [...]Read More >
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