By Steve Blumenthal March 16, 2016 S&P 500® Index 2018 The long-term models, CMG Ned Davis Research (NDR) Large Cap Momentum Index and 13/34-Week EMA, inform our long-term market outlook. The primary trend remains negative. The long-term signals guide our cautious view on the market. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Draghi Bazooka - 03-11-2016
March 11, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Last week’s mention of the great Art Cashin sent a number of emails my way. The one that touched me most was from Richard who worked for Paine Webber from 1974 to 1987. Back then every broker had a small speaker on his or her desk. We in the industry know it [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Investor Sentiment Neutral, Bullish on Bonds and Gold - 03-9-2016
By Steve Blumenthal March 9, 2016 S&P 500® Index 1985 The extreme level of investor pessimism is abating. The best market rallies begin at points of extreme pessimism. Such pessimism is typically short-term bullish for the market. However, the overall trend for equities remains down [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Stick With the Drill – Stay Wary, Alert and Very, Very Nimble - 03-4-2016
March 4, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The best state pension plan is only 42% funded.” I was in Florida this week attending the 32nd Annual Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Risk Management Conference. Attendees were mostly asset managers and larger pension and endowment managers. Several [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – S&P 500 Index 1980 – Aggressive Rally, Now What? - 03-2-2016
By Steve Blumenthal March 2, 2016 Now what? Previously I suggested several rally targets. The first was 1900. The second 1950. The third 2000. The S&P 500® is nearing that test. Overall, the cyclical trend picture has not changed. The weight of technical evidence suggests a negative [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Expect More Money Printing - 02-26-2016
February 26, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Time to put 25% to 30% of your wealth in cash.” – Mohammed El-Erian "If you go to an investment adviser, they'll tell you cash is wasted," says El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz. ‘I don't think so.’ ‘You will have many opportunities to buy [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – New “Buy” Signals on Bonds and Gold; Cyclical Equity Market Trend Remains Negative - 02-24-2016
S&P 500 Index 1908 By Steve Blumenthal February 24, 2016 I mentioned in last week’s post that the S&P 500® Index is nearing its February high at 1947.20. Extreme investor pessimism supported a short-term rally and both the February high at 1947.20 and the 50-day moving average line [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Ray Dalio and Hussman’s Big “W” - 02-19-2016
February 19, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “If zero or negative interest rates actually fixed what's broken in the economy, we'd all be living in Paradise after seven years of zero interest rates.” - Charles Hugh Smith (blog) I am up early, in my favorite chair and loving the coffee that Susan just [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Primary Trend is Bearish, Rally Target (S&P 500: 1950 Key Technical Level) - 02-17-2016
S&P 500 Index 1922 By Steve Blumenthal February 17, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and is neutral for high yield. Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic. Such extreme readings are generally bullish for equites. We are finally seeing the oversold rally. The [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Trend Negative, Investor Sentiment S/T Bullish, Relative Strength Leaders (High Quality Bonds, Utilities and Gold) - 02-10-2016
S&P 500 Index 1863 By Steve Blumenthal February 10, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and high yield. We continue to see relative strength leadership in utilities, fixed income, tax-free fixed income and gold. Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic. This supports a [...]Read More >
On My Radar: QE Has Not Worked – Period! - 02-5-2016
February 5, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Clearly, QE has not worked. We have not had one year of 3%+ growth since the Great Recession and are barely averaging 2%. Yes, if your measure is the stock market and other financial assets that have inflated, then QE has worked quite well. But the boost QE [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Margin Debt Flashes Warning - 02-3-2016
S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal February 3, 2016 Our primary equity market indicator, the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum/Breadth Index remains in a “SELL.” CMG HY is back in a “SELL.” The market is not on solid footing. One of the indicators I like to watch and post [...]Read More >
CMG Q4 2015 Quarterly Performance Update - 02-2-2016
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2015 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Last Bull Standing - 01-29-2016
January 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen – who are more like teenagers at a prom night. They are spiking the punch bowl and handing out free drinks and hoping to get lucky at the end of the night.” James Montier, GMO “Understanding the forces of Supply and Demand in [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Sell/Hedge the Rallies, Investor Pessimism Remains Extreme - 01-27-2016
S&P 500 Index 1898 By Steve Blumenthal January 27, 2015 Pessimism remains extreme with the Weekly Sentiment at the lowest (most bearish) reading since 2011. That supports a short-term bullish move. I remain in the “hedge or sell the rallies” camp. Our Zweig Bond model moved to a sell [...]Read More >
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