May 6, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal "The Fed has borrowed from future consumption more than ever before. It is the least data dependent Fed in history. This is the longest deviation from historical norms in terms of Fed dovishness than I have ever seen in my career... This kind of myopia causes [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Market’s Haven’t Liked Mondays Over The Last Five Years - 05-4-2016
By Steve Blumenthal May 4, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2051 Before you take the quick dive into this week’s Trade Signals, here is an interesting fun fact courtesy of Bespoke Investment Research. “Over the last five years, Mondays have been by far the worst days for the S&P 500 with an [...]Read More >
On My Radar: He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother - 04-29-2016
April 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal The road is long With many a winding turn That leads us to who knows where Who knows when But I'm strong Strong enough to carry him He ain't heavy, he's my brother So on we go His welfare is of my concern No burden is he to bear We'll get there For I [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged - 04-27-2016
By Steve Blumenthal April 27, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2090 From the Fed this afternoon: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed. Growth [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Glut – The U.S. Economy… in the Age of Oversupply - 04-22-2016
April 22, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “In the time it takes to raise a child and pack her off to college, the world order that existed in the early 1990s has disappeared. Some three billion people who once lived in sleepy or sclerotic statist economies are now part of the global economy. Many [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – ST Trend Bullish, LT Not Confirmed, Sentiment Is Bearish - 04-20-2016
By Steve Blumenthal April 20, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2103 The supply/demand indicator turned bullish this week. The process looks at a smoothed total volume of declining issues versus a smoothed total volume of advancing issues, using a broad market equity index. This indication is another [...]Read More >
On My Radar: First, Do No Harm - 04-15-2016
April 15, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Seemingly logical, but as I’ve pointed out in recent years – not working very well because zero and negative interest rates break down capitalistic business models related to banking, insurance, pension funds, and ultimately small savers. They can’t earn [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Neutral on Trend & Sentiment: Bullish on Bonds & Gold - 04-13-2016
By Steve Blumenthal April 13, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2077 Notable this week is the 13-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line crossed above the longer-term 34-week EMA line. Trend followers smooth the historical price performance and, when a shorter-term trend line crossed above or below, [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Powerful and Reliable Determinant of Long-Term Investment Returns - 04-8-2016
April 8, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The Fed may succeed in stretching this cycle until 2017. But sooner or later it will have to grasp the nettle, and then we will discover how much monetary pain can be taken by a dollarized global economy with post-QE pathologies and total debt ratios some 36pc [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Steady As She Goes - 04-6-2016
By Steve Blumenthal April 6, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2062 I thought I’d share an idea with you today: An advisor client asked me how I use the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index within a total portfolio. My two cents is I like to have a systematic way, absent emotion, to raise [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Fed Stuck Between Three Rocks and a Hard Place - 04-1-2016
April 1, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Now these monetary institutions are expected to continue producing miracles. But their ability to repeatedly pull new rabbits out of their policy hats has been stretched to an increasingly unsustainable degree.” -Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Only Game in Town I [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Market Topping? - 03-30-2016
By Steve Blumenthal March 30, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2055 Investor sentiment remains neutral (the rally from extreme pessimism is impressive). The best buying opportunities tend to come at points of extreme pessimism and the best hedging opportunities tend to come at points of extreme [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Détente Agreement - 03-25-2016
March 25, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Corporate sector metrics have been disappointing of late... Companies are scaling back expenditures of all kinds (capital expenditures, hiring, and inventory-builds, for example), as their top-line revenues and earnings decelerate. Though first-quarter numbers [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Nearing Extreme Optimism - 03-23-2016
By Steve Blumenthal March 23, 2016 S&P 500® Index 2036 Recall the extreme level of investor pessimism of just six weeks ago. In fact, extreme negative investor sentiment readings were the norm last November through February. I’ve been suggesting since December that extreme pessimism was [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Fallacy of Overlooking Secondary Consequences - 03-18-2016
March 18, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “So what do we do? Anything. Something. So long as we just don’t sit there. If we screw it up, start over. Try something else. If we wait until we’ve satisfied all the uncertainties, it may be too late.” - Lee Iacocca “This is the persistent tendency of men to [...]Read More >
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