By Steve Blumenthal May 31, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,413 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Great Reset – Notes from the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference (Part 1) - 05-26-2017
May 26, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal "If you make an investment and feel good about it, you'll lose money. If you make an investment and you don’t feel good about it, you’ll make money. Go shopping when things are on sale." – Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management 2017 Strategic Investment [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed - 05-24-2017
By Steve Blumenthal May 24, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,398 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Near Term Looks Good, Long Term Looks Scary - 05-19-2017
May 19, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Over the long term, what raises living standards is productivity—the amount that is produced per person—which increases from coming up with new ideas and implementing ways of producing efficiently. Productivity evolves slowly, so it doesn’t drive big economic [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — S&P 500 2,400, The Trend Remains Bullish for Stocks and Bonds - 05-17-2017
By Steve Blumenthal May 17, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,400 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Reagan’s 1981 vs. Trump’s 2017 - 05-12-2017
May 12, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham When Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981, forward return expectations were a high 18.91% (see chart below: green line, left-hand side). Equally [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Cyclical Equity Bull Market Remains Dominant Trend - 05-10-2017
By Steve Blumenthal May 10, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,398 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: It’s Different This Time - 05-5-2017
May 5, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” – Sir John Templeton I presented at a recent advisor conference alongside a famous economist. He told a story about an investment manager who told him, “You know… [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — S/T Gold Sell Signal, Equity & FI Trends Remain Bullish, Sentiment Excessively Optimistic - 05-3-2017
By Steve Blumenthal May 3, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,388 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Rick Barry and The Wisdom of Limiting Losses - 04-28-2017
April 28, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The hardest part in trying to limit losses is not necessarily timing the market, but imparting the wisdom of limiting losses upon your clients. To limit drawdowns advisors and their clients cannot fully embrace raging bull markets that are excessively [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Bullish Equity and Fixed Income Trends Remain; Sentiment Neutral - 04-26-2017
By Steve Blumenthal April 26, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2.394 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Handle with Extreme Care - 04-21-2017
April 21, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Equities: No Progress since March 6. Bullish Trend Signals in Fixed Income. - 04-19-2017
By Steve Blumenthal April 19, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2.342 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Fundamentally Bipolar; Fed Tightening Cycles – Past and Present - 04-13-2017
April 14, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “…the Fed has typically tightened too much and/or for too long. From this long history, a well-established pattern is identifiable. The economic growth rate along with inflation receded. A financial crisis was more likely than not.” – Van R. Hoisington and [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Low Risk of Recession, High Risk of Inflation, Equity Trend Remains Bullish - 04-12-2017
By Steve Blumenthal April 12, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,346 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
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