By Steve Blumenthal April 5, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,376 Before we jump into this week’s charts, call me crazy for I have no idea why “Ride Captain Ride” popped into my head, but it sure seems to sum up where we find ourselves today (at least for now): Seventy-three men sailed up From the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Causes and Consequences of Fewer U.S. Equities - 03-31-2017
March 31, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal I’m going to try to tie two related themes together today. The first, and I have to admit I was surprised when I saw the research, is the incredible shrinking universe of stocks. Think corporate share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and fewer companies [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Extreme Pessimism Reading S/T Bullish for Equities; Primary Trend Remains Bullish - 03-29-2017
By Steve Blumenthal March 29, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,358 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: No Friends on a Powder Day - 03-24-2017
March 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “First, if the bubble were to collapse on its own, would the effect on the economy be exceedingly large? Second, is it unlikely that the Fed could mitigate the consequences? Third, is monetary policy the best tool to use to deflate a house-price bubble? My [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Extreme Optimism Beginning to Reverse, Looking For Pessimism; Equity Trend Signals Remain Bullish - 03-22-2017
By Steve Blumenthal March 22, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,346 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A High Probability Way to Forecast Recession (Recession? No Sign Just Yet) - 03-17-2017
March 17, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Time is like a river that will take you forward into encounters with reality that will require you to make decisions. You can’t stop the movement down this river, and you can’t avoid the encounters. You can only approach these encounters in the best way [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Extreme Investor Optimism Yet Bull Equity Trend Remains in Place - 03-15-2017
By Steve Blumenthal March 15, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,377 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Nitroglycerin on a Bumpy Road - 03-10-2017
March 10, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “There have been 13 Fed rate hike cycles in the post-WWII era and 10 landed the economy in recession. Soft landings are rare and when they have occurred, they have come in the third year of the expansion, not the eighth.” - David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff + [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Zweig Bond Model Reverses to Sell, Equity Trend Remains Bullish, S/T and L/T Gold Trends Bearish - 03-8-2017
By Steve Blumenthal March 8, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,368 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Valuations and Subsequent Ten-Year Returns - 03-3-2017
March 3, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Big money is made in the stock market by being on the right side of the major moves. The idea is to get in harmony with the market. It's suicidal to fight trends. They have a higher probability of continuing than not.” Martin Zweig At the beginning of each [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Zweig Bond Model Turns Bullish on Bonds, Volume Demand Supports Equity Bull - 03-1-2017
By Steve Blumenthal March 1, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,397 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Fed Eyes Aggressive Rate Increases - 02-24-2017
February 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “You look at every bear market… they’ve always basically occurred because of an uptick in inflation and an uptick in interest rates.” - Paul Tudor Jones Citing an improving economy and the possibility of more spending and lower taxes from the Trump [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Equity Trend Bullish, Bonds Bearish, Sentiment Extreme Optimism; Trend Trumps Sentiment - 02-22-2017
By Steve Blumenthal February 22, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,364 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Blood in the Streets, Indeed - 02-17-2017
February 17, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Perhaps the biggest risk facing investors this year and beyond is whether bond yields will suffer a sustained rise. We are increasingly worried that the bond market is undergoing a secular pivot from bullish to bearish, and that investors are facing an [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — High Inflationary Pressures - 02-15-2017
By Steve Blumenthal February 15, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,340 This week I have posted my favorite Inflation Signal chart. It is signaling high inflationary pressures. Following is a brief description of Trade Signals followed by the most recent data, charts and commentary. Have a great [...]Read More >
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