November 17, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "U.S. reaching a point where our debt problem gets even worse." – Ray Dalio, Source CNBC Kick the can was a fun game to play when we were kids. A Coke can was placed in an open space and was guarded. This person would cover their eyes and [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Second Stage of Tightening - 11-10-2023
November 10, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "We see two big forces that will continue to exert upward pressure on long rates and downward pressure on the economy: 1) the need to sustain a restrictive monetary policy until key economic conditions have settled into their desired levels and [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Defining A Superbubble - 11-3-2023
November 3, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Only a few market events in an investor’s career really matter, and among the most important of all are superbubbles. These superbubbles are events unlike any others: while there are only a few in history for investors to study, they have clear [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Entering The Superbubble’s Final Act - 10-27-2023
October 27, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. " – T.S. Elliot In a conversation with a client this week, he shared the above quote by T.S. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Treasury Yields – An Unpredictable Journey With An Uncertain Destination - 10-20-2023
October 20, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "The world's most crucial benchmark market is on an unpredictable journey with an uncertain destination." – Mohamed El-Erian is President of Queens’ College, Cambridge University, an advisor to Allianz and Gramercy, and a best-selling author. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Praying For Peace - 10-13-2023
October 13, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "To push the point home, I want to make clear that I believe that we are in that brief part of the Big Cycle when the conflicts are heating up, and the leading powers still have the ability to choose between crossing that line into brutal war or [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Presidential Election Cycle - 10-6-2023
October 6, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Peace begins with a smile." – Mother Teresa I received a lot of feedback from last week's OMR letter. I appreciate the dialogue, especially when our views differ. When attending a conference or listening to a round table discussion on a [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Three Major Challenges - 09-29-2023
September 29, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Interest rates are the heart, the soul, and the life of the free market system. They ARE the cost of money. When costs go up, earnings go down. Real incomes go down. We are in a different investment environment than anything investors have [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Outlook for Real Estate, Mortgage Rates and Treasury Yields - 09-22-2023
September 22, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time." - Thomas A. Edison The days are growing shorter. Tomorrow marks the official start of fall. For me, it began last evening, [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Fed, Inflation, The 10-year and the Dollar - 09-15-2023
September 15, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "I know that it is fashionable to talk about a ‘dual mandate’ – that policy should be directed toward the two objectives of price stability and full employment. Fashionable or not, I find that mandate both operationally confusing and [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Leading Economic Indicators, Student Loans, Helicopter Money, and Realistic Return Expectations - 09-8-2023
September 8, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "If the quarterback throws the ball in the end zone and the wide receiver catches it, it's a touchdown." - John Madden Football season has begun, and I imagine the number of Google searches checking Vegas odds is dramatically up. My son [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Understanding Cycles - 09-1-2023
September 1, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Cycles are the most important thing." - Britt Harris, CEO and CIO, The University of Texas/Texas A&M Investment Company First, let me begin by wishing you a fun-filled weekend. As summer comes to an end, I hope this note finds you on the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Credit Crunch at Hand - 08-25-2023
August 25, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "What is now happening hasn't happened before in our lifetimes but has happened many times throughout history—typically, just before civil wars. In my opinion, this is a VERY big, bad deal yet most people are quietly going along with it." - Ray [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Decisive Decade - 08-18-2023
August 18, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "The Decisive Decade is cautionary and optimistic. Ward shows a path for America and the Free World to win the contest with the Chinese Communist Party. He calls for rebuilding American economic, industrial, and technological might, and [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Ray Dalio – The Great Wealth Transfer - 08-11-2023
August 11, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Ultimately, if the deficit isn’t contained, taxes will be raised to the point that the engine of the US economy — the all-important consumer — will have considerably less discretionary income. - Quincy Krosby, the chief global strategist for [...]Read More >
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