October 6, 2023
By Steve Blumenthal
“Peace begins with a smile.”
– Mother Teresa
I received a lot of feedback from last week’s OMR letter. I appreciate the dialogue, especially when our views differ. When attending a conference or listening to a round table discussion on a podcast, I learn the most from thoughtful debate/discourse.
This week, let’s dive into a toxic space – the presidential election. Instead of debating the specific candidates, let’s look at the history of the four-year presidential cycle in terms of how markets are impacted. The pattern correlation is interesting, and you might also find it interesting.
Following is some data yet, with a caveat, the coming 4’th year in the cycle could differ from the historically positive averages. The end of long-term debt supercycles can be disruptive. And the Fed is waging war on inflation. Sadly, the very inflation they created.
(Thank you to Ned Davis Research for the excellent charts.)
Chart 1: The DJIA and the Four-Year Presidential Cycle
Here is how to view the chart:
- Cycle charts, in general, operate on the premise that multi-year cycles exhibit recurring patterns within the stock market over time.
- The Four-Year Presidential Cycle chart aligns with the duration of a U.S. presidential term and has demonstrated consistent, repetitive trends throughout history. (Data from 1-2-1900 through 12-31-2022.)
- The upper section of the chart illustrates the Four-Year Presidential Cycle of the Dow Industrials. This cycle is derived by calculating the average percentage change in the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) for each day of a calendar year, considering only every fourth year since 1900. These average daily percentage changes are then accumulated to form a representative “average year” pattern.
- The lower section of the chart presents the S&P 500’s performance within the current election cycle (2000 to 2024), visually comparing how the actual market aligns with the observed cycle pattern.
- Historically, this pattern reveals that the second year of a presidential term tends to be the weakest, on average.
- In contrast, the pre-election year has consistently exhibited the most robust performance, while the election year ranks second strongest. The shading on the chart indicates the current year, which is the pre-election year.
Chart 2: Includes the S&P 500 Index
In this chart, the lower section plots the S&P 500 Index over the cycle (since 2020)
- Trend is more important than level.
- As you can see, the correlation in the trend is very high.
Chart 3: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023
This chart combines the one-year seasonal cycle, the four-year presidential cycle, and the ten-year decennial cycle (we’ll cover them separately in a future post).
- The correlation is pretty much spot on. Again, focus on the trend as it is more important than the level.
- The conclusion here is that this pattern suggests sideways action into late November (potential low), then a positive end-of-year trend.
- This is similar to the pattern reflected in the 3rd year of the Presidential Election Cycle, as you see in Charts 1 and 2.
Following are a few summary bullet point observations on the topic:
- The 3rd year of the Presidential Election Cycle has often been a positive year for the stock market, with few exceptions.
- Despite the overall positive trend, the autumn of the 3rd year often witnesses stock prices stumbling or moving sideways, consistent with the current pullback.
- The 4th year, the election year, tends to be positive on average but with more variability. Notable negative years include 2008 and 2000.
- The Presidential Election Cycle suggests more sideways movement before a bullish phase, but it may not be followed exactly, especially in October, due to historical anomalies like the 1987 crash.
- The current 3rd-year performance in the stock market has been affected by the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes and withdrawal of quantitative easing.
- The Presidential Election Cycle pattern is a useful guide despite variations from it and suggests a potentially strong upward movement in Q4 of 2023.
Chart 4: Bonus Chart – Stocks are more expensive than bonds (first time since 2008)
What is notable here is that stocks are more expensive than bonds for the first time since 2008.
- What this means is that there is asset competition in terms of the yield investors can obtain by investing in short-term money market funds, short-duration Treasuries, and longer-duration bond and bond funds.
- Given the current high stock valuations, the returns from bonds and especially senior secure floating rate private credit may make the current presidential election cycle more challenging than the prior election cycle in terms of stock market performance.
Grab your coffee and find your favorite chair. Mauldin wrote an excellent piece on Cyclical Forces, taking a deeper dive into Ray Dalio’s work, in his Thoughts From the Frontline letter last week. Another masterpiece, and he writes in a way most can better understand. You’ll find the full piece below. And, by the time this letter hits your inbox, I’ll be on the sideline next to my beautiful wife, Coach Sue. The game will be over, and we’ll huddle with her high school boy’s soccer team for a short debrief, hopefully with smiles of joy on their faces. After a 2-1 loss on Tuesday, the record sits at 3 wins, 4 losses, and 1 tie. The team is strong this year, and the level of soccer is fun to watch. Susan likes to say, “There is only winning and learning.” I can tell you the cold IPA with Susan seems to taste better after the “winning” than it does after a strong dose of “learning.” Go, Friars!
Here are the sections in this week’s On My Radar:
- Cyclical Forces, by John Mauldin
- Understanding Private Credit
- Random Tweet– The Failure of Kevin McCarthy is Another Step Away from Democracy and Toward Civil War
- Personal Note: Mother Teresa
- Trade Signals: Weekly Update, October 4, 2023
(Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion purposes only.)
If you are not signed up to receive the free weekly On My Radar letter, subscribe here.
Cyclical Forces, by John Mauldin
SB Here – I’ve written about the same topic. John does an excellent job explaining the issues in a different way than I do. To say I’m envious is an understatement.
From John’s letter,
Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.
(If you missed—or want to review—the previous installments, check out this X thread for brief summaries and links to the full letters.)
Before we start, let me (gently) push back on a criticism I keep hearing. Some readers say these cycle theories are just “curve fitting” attempts to impose predetermined conclusions on conveniently useful data. That is always a risk in any kind of analysis. Confirmation bias is a powerful force, and we all have to actively resist it.
Two points: First, the idea that human history has repeating patterns is just reality. We humans are a repeating pattern. We live our lives, usually reproducing more humans whose personalities we shape, and they go on to do the same thing, with slight differences. The same happens to groups of humans: families, villages, and nations. They evolve and change in a process that includes a lot of repetition. Maybe “cycle” isn’t the right word for this, perhaps it should be a pattern, but I think either describes the process.
For that matter, even without humans, nature itself has cycles: the sun, the moon, the seasons. Animals and insects have identifiable life cycles during which their population grows and shrinks. I think it’s quite plausible, even likely, that similar processes help mold human civilization in ways that would be obvious if we were on the outside looking in.
Second, the cycle/patterns I am describing are all based on different observations but come to the same general conclusions in terms of the fin de siècle—the end of the cycle or period—for entirely different reasons. Yes, they are using the lens of history, and that history is the same for all of them, but they see a different set of reasons for the periodicity in these cycles.
If five different systems all come to the same (general direction) conclusion, then perhaps we should pay attention? I understand the future is unknown and lots of things can happen, but that is what every person, country, and culture said before they had their own crisis.
Even if you don’t believe all that, these ideas should still be enlightening. They help you think about what could explain what we are going through. They can uncover ways to make the best of it. Keep an open mind; we all have much to learn.
A final thought: If you don’t feel that US culture (and much of the world in different ways) is in turmoil, you are not paying attention.
I’m going to simply list some of the issues facing us. I am not taking a position here, simply noting that these are issues that seem to divide us. Howe, Friedman, Terchin, Dalio, and myself all feel that “this too shall pass.” But not without a crisis.
We face tensions unlike I have ever seen, even during the Vietnam protest days. Then it was just the war. Now it is crime and not arresting thieves who simply raid stores. Somehow it is cruel to prosecute young thieves who clearly have permission to steal in some local areas (and that seems to be spreading) and not to care about the plight of the small business owners who watch their lives disappear.
Immigration. Education at all tiers. Race. When did gender become this fraught? Gods forbid we mention the dysfunctionality of politics at both the national and state and even local levels where both sides demonize the other as either uncaring, unthoughtful, recidivist troglodytes or extreme socialists bent on tearing down the culture of the country and dictating social mores.
Wealth and income inequality? Culture wars? Do we even mention the whole climate crisis debacle? (Whisper: Am I allowed to say the pharma community has not covered itself with glory in destroying the faith we had in “the science,” which now has overtones of Big Brother? How did that happen?) The list just goes on and on.
I think most people across the political spectrum believe even more turmoil is coming. Add in the national debt and fiscal crisis. This all leads to what I think will be The Great Reset. But today, we’ll look at another view of the cycles that make nations fail and then reform.
We will get through this period. I am hoping this series will help you decide on your personal path.
Intellectual Rocket Fuel
Ray Dalio, founder of the giant and very successful Bridgewater Associates hedge fund, is a familiar name to many of my readers. I’ve cited his work from time to time. In 2019 we had a little dialogue when I pushed back on some of his work. We don’t always agree on particulars, but I consider Ray one of the finance industry’s greatest thinkers. And while I can (and likely will) nitpick, in general I think he is right in his diagnoses.
As a writer, Ray has possibly the highest information-to-word ratios I have ever seen. Seriously, you really have to read him one paragraph at a time, then go take a walk and think about it for an hour. You can skim through, of course, but you’ll miss a lot. Everything Ray writes is high-octane intellectual rocket fuel.
At 576 pages, Ray’s 2021 Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail is a magnum opus. Just giving you a fair summary would take me 10 letters. I sincerely intend not to do that, and instead just point to a few of the most instructive highlights.
(Note: You can read some excerpts for free by clicking here.)
You can tell a lot about an author by who endorses them. Here are a few familiar names from the book’s Amazon page…
- Andrew Ross Sorkin
- Henry Kissinger
- Arianna Huffington
- Bill Gates
- Henry Paulson
- Larry Summers
- Mark Cuban
- Tim Geithner
- Tony Robbins
- Jamie Dimon
- Michael Bloomberg
- Adam Grant
- Reed Hastings
- Tim Ferriss
This diverse group doesn’t agree on much, but they all got a lot of value from Ray’s thinking. That should tell you something. Whatever you may already believe, reading Ray Dalio will challenge you on it. It certainly has done that for me.
Gears in the Machine
Ray’s theory of history follows what he calls the “Big Cycle.” Keep in mind, Ray is a trader/investor. He got where he is by learning to recognize why asset prices rise and fall. Stocks, bonds, and so forth all respond to supply and demand factors. If you know those factors well enough, you can position your assets to profit from them. Ray spent his career doing it better than most.
Similarly, Ray thinks societies, economies, and entire nations also respond to identifiable factors. He uses the word “forces,” which I find interesting for reasons I’ll explain below. But in any case, Ray shows how history develops in response to five big forces, each of which has its own cyclicality. Sometimes they coincide, which is when big change happens.
I’ll briefly describe these five forces today, then we’ll dive deeper in future letters.
- The Financial/Economic Force
This one should be familiar to experienced investors and economists. It’s what we sometimes call the “business cycle” or “credit cycle.” The desire to borrow money and the willingness to lend it both follow a pattern that produces economic booms and busts.
Most of the turbulent times have been because of money and credit collapses, wealth gaps, fights over wealth and power, as well as severe acts of nature which includes epidemics.
You know how this goes. The cycle begins when banks are flush with cash and looking to lend it. This causes low interest rates, which entice borrowers—households and businesses and governments—to go into debt. They buy things, invest in new production, pay for government programs. Private money sometimes uses debt to innovate and build stuff. All this activity makes money speed through the economy.
This expansion phase typically unfolds over several decades, during which most people seem happy, at least in economic terms. But because it’s mostly a credit-driven illusion, it ends when credit dries up. We call that part “recession,” which eventually ends and the cycle repeats.
A complicating element here is that outside forces—mainly central banks and governments—try to influence the process, often for non-productive reasons. They can either extend it, making the inevitable fall even worse, or end it too soon and prevent growth that would have benefited everyone.
- The Domestic Order Force
The second force is about order within a nation or society. This isn’t “order” in the sense of everything being neat and clean. It’s more about everyone feeling comfortable and fairly treated. They may not be wealthy, but they see opportunities to raise their living standards. They trust their neighbors and feel a sense of shared identity.
This “domestic order” begins to break down when people perceive gaps within their society. These can be about wealth, income, education, job opportunities, religion, morality, and more. The common thread is people begin adapting an “us vs. them” attitude. Factions develop and the sense of shared identity disappears. That’s when populist movements arise.
This force isn’t an “on/off” switch. It has many intermediate levels. Large cultures are rarely in full cohesion for long. Fissures develop, people disagree, they argue and get angry. That’s not all bad; challenging each other’s ideas helps us learn and grow. It can even be good if the friction stays within boundaries everyone respects.
But more often, the boundaries slowly weaken and eventually break. That’s what makes this a “cycle.”
- The International Order Force
Aside from events within nations, things happen between nations. It’s an ongoing, incremental process, but occasionally there are major realignments. Two occurred in living memory.
In 1945, the end of World War II established the US and Soviet Union as the top powers. Then that era ended in 1991 when the Soviet regime collapsed, leaving the US as the only superpower for a time. Now China is challenging that structure. (My long-term view of China is one area that I would nitpick with Ray, but it is secondary in the overall scheme of things.)
These changes are nothing new, however. Ray documents how they happen cyclically, going back many centuries. And they aren’t just about territory or military power. In modern times they are largely economic, defining international commerce and financial flows to the advantage of some and disadvantage of others.
All this occurs while the other financial/economic and domestic order forces create pressure inside the nations that in turn are in conflict with each other. Tension builds and, rarely but inevitably, explodes into something much worse.
- The Nature Force
Nature has cycles completely apart from what humans are doing. Many happen so slowly we are only dimly aware of them. But nature also has staggering power to upend our lives and economies in sudden, often unpredictable ways. Earthquakes, volcanoes, and pandemics can come out of nowhere with very little warning.
Ray Dalio believes extreme weather events will be more common and more costly in the next decade due to climate change and the El Niño weather pattern. The resulting destruction will be, in effect, a kind of tax or inflation. It will impose costs without creating any new productivity. This can then interact with the other forces—unraveling domestic order as a society debates how to distribute those new costs, for instance.
- The Technology Force
Technology can be a world-changing force. It certainly has been in the past. Gunpowder changed warfare, then navies allowed greater areas of conflict, then airplanes changed it again, and then nuclear weapons really changed it. These affect the international order force. Meanwhile other technologies affect the economic and domestic order forces.
The technology itself is only the beginning, though. The ways in which we apply technology tend to spark conflict.
To take another example from the news, Hollywood actors and automotive workers are both on strike partly because they think technology will affect their livelihoods. Some people support the strikes, others don’t. Those arguments subtract from domestic order, they have economic effects, and they have international consequences. All these forces push against each other in myriad ways we don’t always understand and often can’t control.
You might think of Dalio’s five forces as the gears inside a machine. Ideally, they all turn together in productive harmony. But sometimes they clash, and we can’t just lift the hood and put them back together.
Forces of Nature
In Dalio’s view, the Big Cycle of human history is basically the result of interactions between those five big forces. Each has its own internal cycles, then they combine into broader cycles. Understand these interactions and you can begin anticipating where history will go.
I think it isn’t coincidental that a top trader recognized all this. Ray is a genius at recognizing market forces. They have different characteristics, but the broad idea is similar. Identify the forces behind asset prices and you can better anticipate which way prices will go.
But there’s another, deeper parallel. Science tells us that reality itself—the entire universe—is the result of four fundamental forces:
- The weak force
- The strong force
I’m not a physicist so forgive me if I mangle this explanation. You can read a better one here. But briefly…
Gravity holds everything together. Isaac Newton defined it as the attraction between two objects. Einstein later said gravity isn’t really a “force,” it’s just what happens when space-time gets bent. Regardless, without gravity we and everything we know would spin apart.
The weak force is what makes subatomic particles decay and become different particles. It’s not exactly “weak” as we normally use the word because this decay causes, among other things, nuclear fission. Our sun would not exist without the weak force.
Electromagnetism has two aspects: electricity and magnetism. It comes from the interaction between positively and negatively charged particles. Aside from powering the lights in your house and the device on which you are reading this, electromagnetism is what allows motion. You can walk because the particles in your shoe produce friction with the particles of your floor.
The strong force holds particles together and allows them to form new kinds of particles. It lets protons and neutrons combine in the combinations we call “elements.”
Scientists don’t fully understand how it all works, but interaction between these four forces seems to define everything. Some theories suggest they may all be aspects of a single “everything” force yet to be discovered.
I don’t have the scientific vocabulary to say much more. My point here is that the most advanced human thinking on the deepest conceivable topics points to a limited number of forces defining the whole universe. If that is the case, then a similar process—like Ray Dalio’s—might help us understand how human affairs develop.
And if we can understand how they develop, we have a better chance of understanding where they are going.
I’ll leave it there for today. Next week we’ll go deeper into Ray Dalio’s book.
You can find the full letter and sign up to follow John’s free weekly Thoughts From the Frontline letter by clicking here.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed may change at any time.
If you are not signed up to receive the free weekly On My Radar letter, subscribe here.
Understanding Private Credit
We had hundreds of readers sign up to receive the “Understanding Private Credit” paper we published this week. If you are one of them, you will receive an email with the link to the paper this evening.
My firm and I believe that a low-yielding 4.75% 10-year Treasury Note and other low-yielding bond and bond funds in a probable higher for longer inflation and interest world is not an attractive investment option. Trading opportunities, yes. Buy-and-hold them, no. Instead, we favor senior secure floating rate private credit investments and other types of alternative investment strategies, which we will write about.
Private Credit is an area few investors are familiar with, so we decided to write the paper. It’s a simple introduction to the world of private credit. This is the first in the series of papers.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. For discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change.
This next link is concerning. Remove all sharp objects and channel your inner Mother Teresa. Boy, oh boy…
Click on photo to access the full post.
OMR Podcast – The Three Major Challenges
If you missed last week’s OMR and/or would like an audio recap, here is a link to my podcast discussion with CMG’s Brian Schreiner.
Grab your sneakers, plugin, and head out for a walk… Click on the photo to get to the audio.
Follow me on X (formerly Twitter). Truthfully, I’m a bit addicted. I like how you can follow your favorite thinkers. When I see something that seems worthy to me, I like it or retweet it. You’ll be able to see what I find notable. @SBlumenthalCMG
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. For discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change.
Personal Note: Mother Teresa
“Not all of us can do great things. But we can do small things with great love.”
— Mother Teresa
On this date, October 6, in 1979, Mother Teresa, the Roman Catholic nun known for her humanitarian work with the poor in India, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her selfless dedication to improving the lives of the less fortunate.
Mother Teresa, born Anjezë Gonxhe Bojaxhiu in Albania in 1910, dedicated her life to helping the poorest of the poor in the slums of Kolkata, India. She founded the Missionaries of Charity in 1950, an organization that provided care and support to those suffering from poverty, sickness, and homelessness.
One day, as she walked through the streets of Kolkata, she came across a man lying on the pavement, sick and emaciated. Without hesitation, she knelt beside him, cradled his head in her arms, and offered him comfort. Passersby were amazed by her compassion and asked why she was helping this man.
Mother Teresa replied with her trademark humility, “This is not a man. This is Jesus in a distressing disguise.”
Mother Teresa’s legacy is one of compassion, love, and service to humanity, and it continues to inspire people around the world today.
Born and lightly raised by my parents in the Jewish faith, I see myself as more of a spiritual person than a follower of any one religious doctrine. I believe there is more going on beyond what we can physically observe, and while I have faith, I respect others who have a different view. Who am I to judge?
Given my background, I find it fun learning about the spiritual culture at the all-boys Augustinian School where Susan coaches. Before every soccer game, the boys say a prayer. I respect that. I also remember my two step-sons taking the “The Study of Religions” class when they attended the school. It turned out to be their favorite class. I remember wondering, Why is a Christian school teaching about other religions? Christians may know this to be the way, but it was new to me. It’s pretty great if you ask me. No one in our family—not Susan, me, nor any of our six children—is particularly religious, but we do believe in love, compassion, kindness, and happiness.
And with that, let’s close with a wonderful nod of love to the great Mother Teresa. “Peace begins with a smile,” she once said.
Happy Nobel Peace Prize Day, Mother Teresa. Glasses high; let’s smile.
All the very best to you and yours!
Trade Signals: Weekly Update, October 4, 2023
“Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process. Yes, it’s that simple.”
– Charlie Munger
Notable this week (TS posted Wednesday, October 4):
By the end of the trading day yesterday, the punch from the bond market took out the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gain for the year and sent the yields on U.S. Treasurys to new multiyear highs.
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury note exceeded 4.8% for the first time since August 2007.
- The losses were broad-based for equities, especially for technology, rate-sensitive banks, utilities, real-estate owners, and companies that rely on discretionary spending.
- The Dow declined 1.3%, ending the session down 0.4% in 2023.
- The S&P 500 declined 1.4%, with approximately 13% of its stocks in the index, making new 52-week lows.
- The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9%.
There was some relief in the market today (Wednesday). Stocks closed the day higher, and the yield on the 10-year a touch lower to 4.74%.
The dollar remains strong, gold weak, equities weak, and bond prices lower. The key to everything is the yield on Treasuries. The 10-year looks poised to reach 5%.
The 10-year Treasury Note weekly MACD remains in a sell signal, as does the Zweig Bond Model.
More defense than offense!
The dashboard of indicators and the stock, bond, developed, and emerging market charts, along with the dollar and gold charts, are updated each week. We monitor inflation and recession as well. If you are not a subscriber and would like a sample, reply to this email, and we’ll send you a sample.
The letter is free for CMG clients. It is designed for traders and investors seeking a better understanding of the current macro trends. You can SUBSCRIBE or LOGIN by clicking on the link below.
The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
With kind regards,
Forbes Book – On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles. Stephen Blumenthal gives investors a game plan and the advice they need to develop a risk-minded and opportunity-based investment approach. It is about how to grow and defend your wealth. You can learn more here.
Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management.
Follow Steve on Twitter @SBlumenthalCMG and LinkedIn.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This document is prepared by CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. (“CMG”) and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances of any of the recipients. Additionally, CMG’s actual investment positions may, and often will, vary from its conclusions discussed herein based on any number of factors, such as client investment restrictions, portfolio rebalancing, and transaction costs, among others. Recipients should consult their own advisors, including tax advisors, before making any investment decision. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. This material does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors which are necessary considerations before making any investment decision. Investors should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, where appropriate, seek professional advice, including legal, tax, accounting, investment, or other advice. The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
Investing involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CMG), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CMG. Please remember to contact CMG, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. CMG is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.
No portion of the content should be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. References to specific securities, investment programs or funds are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses realized or unrealized, by any CMG client from any specific funds or securities. Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends. The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, has not been independently verified, and does not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client. CMG clients may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. See in links provided citing limitations of hypothetical back-tested information. Past performance cannot predict or guarantee future performance. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please talk to your advisor.
Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its accuracy. This document is general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purposes.
In a rising interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally declines, and conversely, in a falling interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally increases. High-yield securities may be subject to heightened market, interest rate, or credit risk and should not be purchased solely because of the stated yield. Ratings are measured on a scale that ranges from AAA or Aaa (highest) to D or C (lowest). Investment-grade investments are those rated from highest down to BBB- or Baa3.
NOT FDIC INSURED. MAY LOSE VALUE. NO BANK GUARANTEE.
Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
In the event that there has been a change in an individual’s investment objective or financial situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with his/her investment professional.
Written Disclosure Statement. CMG is an SEC-registered investment adviser located in Malvern, Pennsylvania. Stephen B. Blumenthal is CMG’s founder and CEO. Please note: The above views are those of CMG and its CEO, Stephen Blumenthal, and do not reflect those of any sub-advisor that CMG may engage to manage any CMG strategy, or exclusively determines any internal strategy employed by CMG. A copy of CMG’s current written disclosure statement discussing advisory services and fees is available upon request or via CMG’s internet web site at www.cmgwealth.com/disclosures. CMG is committed to protecting your personal information. Click here to review CMG’s privacy policies.