October 31, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed” Admiral William H. McRaven “Have you heard about the Making Your Bed speech”, Susan asks me. I was sifting through a week’s worth of research trying to figure out what might be meaningful to [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Rest of the Story - 10-24-2014
October 24, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Paul Harvey, The Rest of The Story “Years ago a teacher in Detroit asked Stevie Morris to help her find a mouse that was lost in the classroom. You see, she appreciated the fact that nature had given Stevie something no one else in the room had. [...]Read More >
Watch Junk Bonds For Early Warnings Of A New Financial Crisis - 10-17-2014
October 17, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Investors should understand that prices and valuations are high is another way of saying future returns have already been realized, leaving little to be gained for quite some time.” John Hussman In 2005, I was pitched a Bear Stearns leveraged hedge fund that [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Stay Wary, Alert and Very, Very Nimble. - 10-10-2014
October 10, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “We’re in a period with many daily (often hourly) points that represent pixels in the market’s picture. The short-run trends (the cyclical cycles) of the market are hard to predict. Without extraordinary powers of clairvoyance, the best plan is a diversified, [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes - 10-3-2014
October 3, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “A lot of people are not psychologically suited to buy stocks that bump around all the time.” Warren Buffett (CNBC Oct 2, 2014) Last week it was Dalio, Bloomberg, Dudley, Cooperman, Robertson and Conway as well as Julian Robertson’s “we have created two [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Dalio, Bloomberg, Dudley, Cooperman, Robertson and Conway - 09-26-2014
September 26, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning." - Albert Einstein Feeling like a kid in a candy store, I raced to catch an early morning train. I was heading to the Bloomberg Markets Most [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Too Many Hot Dogs - 09-19-2014
September 19, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal As the debt bubble steps forward, we search for signs of inflation and deflation. Some growth and inflation is apparent in the U.S. while it is deflation and recession pressures in Europe and Japan. Which way are interest rates headed? The year-to-date [...]Read More >
On My Radar: It’s All About That Fed, ‘Bout That Fed - 09-12-2014
By Steve Blumenthal September 12, 2014 “All About That Bass Because you know I'm all about that bass 'Bout that bass, no treble I'm all about that bass 'Bout that bass, no treble” It’s about a 35 minute drive to school each morning and, frankly, it is some of the best quiet time I have with [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Higher We Go - 09-5-2014
September 5, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Higher we go! While valuation and sentiment data scream caution, trend data and Fed policy tells us to continue the ride. Today, let’s take a look at the latest valuation charts and an updated look at Don’t Fight the Fed or the Tape. As you’ll see, the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Half-Full Growth Rates - 08-29-2014
August 29, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal As we enter the last weekend of the summer, a bummer of a thought though I do favor the fall, I thought I’d keep this piece short and share with you what I found to be a very balanced and well thought-out view on the current state of the economy. With granted [...]Read More >
On My Radar: “Very Far From Normal” - 08-22-2014
August 22, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal To me, the next cyclical market down trend is linked to Fed Policy and the timing of their change in interest rate policy. For now, I remain in the Don't Fight the Fed or The Trend camp (constructive on equities). So what happens when the Fed raises [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Teach Them to Fly - 08-15-2014
August 15, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal There is an argument being made that the currently high valuation measures (PE, dividends, price to book, price to sales) are really not so high when you consider that today’s interest rates are so low. The thinking is that today’s ultra-low interest rates [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Maybe and When - 08-8-2014
August 8, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal I was interviewed by a very bright Bloomberg fixed income reporter yesterday. His area of expertise is high yield credit and he had recently read the piece I wrote for Forbes, Code Red in High Yield. He jumped right in with question number one, “is this the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Central Bank Smackdown - 08-1-2014
August 1, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Last week’s On My Radar discussed the coming default wave in the high yield market (Code Red for High Yield). This week, I share a great piece from my good friend and long time partner, John Mauldin, titled Central Bank Smackdown. John notes the difference [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Code Red for High Yield - 07-25-2014
July 25, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal The risk in the high yield bond market is off the charts. Yields are near record lows, bonds that shouldn’t be getting funding are and at terms unfriendly to investors. A default cycle is in sight and unfortunately the nature of liquidity has changed. This [...]Read More >
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