February 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I think the government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem and very often makes the problem worse.” - Milton Friedman A close friend bought a $1 million condo but he did something very unusual, he borrowed the mortgage loan in Yen instead [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction - 02-13-2015
February 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play” Jesse Livermore – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator There has been a lot of debate on the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Spoonful of Sugar - 02-6-2015
February 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal In ev'ry job that must be done There is an element of fun You find the fun and snap! The job's a game And ev'ry task you undertake Becomes a piece of cake A lark! A spree! It's very clear to see that A Spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down The [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Go Ahead, Angela, Make My Day - 01-30-2015
January 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal I spend a great deal of time writing about valuations, probable future returns (near record lows today), portfolio construction and risk management. Reflecting on four days of non-stop sessions, media interviews and meetings at the Inside ETFs Annual [...]Read More >
On My Radar: I See Opportunity - 01-23-2015
January 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I often disdain economic forecasts as a stock market indicator. First, the consensus forecasts of economics are often wrong, and more importantly, the stock market tends to lead the economy, so it is like trying to put the cart in front of the horse.” Ned [...]Read More >
On My Radar – Global Deflation - 01-16-2015
January 16, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “All I can do is advise you on what has happened before. Once one country goes, capital will look around and turn on whoever they think is next. Eventually, this will move from one to the next. The dollar will be the last man standing. After that, we are [...]Read More >
On My Radar: It’s All About That Fed – Again - 01-9-2015
January 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "We shouldn't be raising rates before 2016." Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Evans, a voting member on the central bank's policymaking committee, told CNBC this week. The market responded favorably. Evans said he's hopeful that inflation will pick up. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2015 Upside and Downside Targets For the S&P 500 - 01-2-2015
January 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Each month, I like to look at the market’s valuation to get a sense of potential upside reward relative to downside risk. Today, let’s look at three valuation measures, one based on reported earnings through 12-31-2014, one based on operating revenue, and the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Commodity Outlook – All Cycles Eventually End - 12-26-2014
December 26, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal All cycles eventually come to an end. In the case of commodity bulls, 16 years is the average duration. The longest lasted 24 years (1896–1920), the shortest lasted 8 years (1972–1980), and the most recent secular bull ended in 2011 after 12 years. What [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A “House of Cards” – Looking Ahead To The Year That Interest Rates Will Finally Rise - 12-19-2014
December 12, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Unselfish acts are the real miracles out of which all the reported miracles grow." - Ralph Waldo Emerson Have you watched any of the great Netflix TV series House of Cards? Set in present-day Washington, D.C., House of Cards is the story of Frank Underwood [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2015 Outlook – Strong First Half, Challenging Second Half - 12-12-2014
December 12, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.” Aldous Leonard Huxley (1894-1963) Put me down as a long-time Philadelphia Eagles fan. But let's just say I'm on the good [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Passion and Heart - 12-5-2014
December 5, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do work you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Purgatory and Bubbles - 11-21-2014
November 21, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “A safe investment is an investment whose dangers are not at that moment apparent.” – Lord Bauer All investments involve risk. Cash under your mattress (theft or fire), bank accounts, CDs, bonds, stocks… Truly, nothing is safe – yet some risks are less and [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Stocks Remain Richly Valued - 11-14-2014
November 14, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Shortly after each month end (after the most recent reported earnings numbers are posted), I like to run through a few of my favorite valuation charts to gauge level, asses risk and to get a sense for what the probable forward return may be. Fortunately, [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Cows, Capitalism and Japan - 11-7-2014
November 7, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Traditional Capitalism: You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income. “American Capitalism: You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publically listed company, [...]Read More >
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