S&P 500 Index 1981 By Steve Blumenthal January 6, 2015 The S&P 500 index is down 90 points since last week’s post.  An ominous start to the New Year.  My favorite weight-of-evidence chart that looks at both price momentum and market breadth, our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap [...]Read More >

December 31, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Where do we stand now, economically? “Well, we are right back at it: trying to stimulate growth through easy money. It hasn’t worked, but it’s the only tool the Fed’s got. Meanwhile, the Fed’s policies widen the wealth gap, which feeds political extremism, [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2071 By Steve Blumenthal December 30, 2015 Investor pessimism remains extreme.  This is short-term bullish for the U.S. equity market.  Following are the most recent Trade Signals. Wishing you a Happy New Year! Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Equity Trade [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2057 By Steve Blumenthal December 23, 2015 To me, Ben Garrison’s cartoon entitled “Everything Is Awesome!!” pretty much captures the state of the current environment in which we find ourselves. Just the data please!  I was a bit shocked, as you may be as well, to see [...]Read More >

December 18, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “There is a doctrine in finance called the dividend discount model. It says that the price of a common stock is the present value of its future cash flows discounted by a suitable rate of interest. Now what would happen to the calculation of the value of that [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 14, 2015  I’ve been warning for some time of a coming default wave in the high-yield market and the importance of staying tactical (flexible).  It appears to be nearing.  Prices on high-yield securities hit a six-year low on Friday.  The decline in oil has caused many [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2047 By Steve Blumenthal December 16, 2015 Today is Fed day.  I’m posting this piece just prior to their interest rate decision.  My fingers are crossed for functional Wi-Fi – I’m traveling home from business in Salt Lake City.  And a few days on the snow. High-yield [...]Read More >

December 11, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “You are driving forward and the road you are on ends.  You have come to what the British call a T-Junction.  You can transition to one of two alternatives.  But you cannot stay on the road you are on. One alternative is good.  It is a hand off from central [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2044 By Steve Blumenthal December 9, 2015 “We’re looking at some real carnage in the junk-bond market.  This is a little bit disconcerting that we’re talking about raising interest rates with the credit markets in corporate credit absolutely tanking. They’re falling apart.” – [...]Read More >

December 4, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “The economy is like a machine.  At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine.  But many people don’t understand it – or they don’t agree on how it works – and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering... Seeing the economy and [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2094 By Steve Blumenthal December 2, 2015 There is improvement in several of the charts this week.  Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed has moved back to neutral from -2.  For now, that is good news. You’ll also see that the trend data as measured by a weekly moving average [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2089 By Steve Blumenthal November 25, 2015 Overall, from a trading perspective, I am now with a neutral view on equities.  Our CMG NDR Momentum Index (my favorite measure) which looks at momentum and market breadth remains in a sell signal.  However, the weekly 13-week vs. [...]Read More >

November 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I have long made the claim that the transnational nature of Europe cannot be sustained. The divergent economic interests of EU countries, some with unemployment over 20 percent, some with it under 5 percent, meant that it was impossible for all of them to [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2071 By Steve Blumenthal November 18, 2015 The significant signal this week is the -2 reading on the Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed model.  The model looks at the technical health of the broad equity market (how are most stocks doing across the various sectors).  When the [...]Read More >

November 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “The European Central Bank is likely to continue negative rates, extend and enlarge QE, and acquire more balance sheet assets over time. ECB policy influences other nearby non-euro jurisdictions. Essentially, all short-term interest rates of [...]Read More >