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Trade Signals — Investor Sentiment Too Many Bulls; Zweig Bond Model Sell; HY Buy; Equity Trend Evidence Bullish - 12-7-2016

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By Steve Blumenthal December 7, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,212 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The Italian Referendum; What it Means to You, Me and the Markets - 12-2-2016

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December 2, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “There are three things we should all do every day: Number one is laugh (you should laugh every day), number two is think (you should spend some time in thought) and number three is you should have your emotions moved to tears (tears could be for [...]Read More >

Trade Signals — U.S. Equity Bull, Global Equity Bull, Fixed Income Bear; Sentiment Suggests Caution - 11-30-2016

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By Steve Blumenthal November 30, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,207 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

Trade Signals — Bullish Signals for Stocks, Bearish Signals for Bonds and Turkeys… Happy Thanksgiving - 11-23-2016

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By Steve Blumenthal November 23, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,198 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The Secular Low in Yields is IN - 11-18-2016

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November 18, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “To be clear, we are more non-ideological and practical/mechanical because to us economies and markets work like machines and our job is simply to understand how the levers will be moved and what outcome the moving of them is likely to produce.” — Ray [...]Read More >

Trade Signals — Trend Evidence: Equity Market Bull, Bond Market Bear - 11-16-2016

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By Steve Blumenthal November 16, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,180 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: This is the End, Beautiful Friend - 11-11-2016

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November 11, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal This is the end, beautiful friend This is the end, my only friend, the end Of our elaborate plans, the end Of everything that stands, the end No safety or surprise, the end I'll never look into your eyes, again — The Doors, “End of the Night" To many, [...]Read More >

Trade Signals — Wow! The 10-Year is Yielding 2.10% - 11-9-2016

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By Steve Blumenthal November 9, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,165 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: You’ve Only Got to Remember Two Things - 11-4-2016

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November 4, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal "Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt." "I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you [...]Read More >

Trade Signals — Pessimism Rising, Gold Cyclical Bull Remains, Fixed Income Sell Signals - 11-2-2016

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By Steve Blumenthal November 2, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,110 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The Math Doesn’t Allow for a Soft Landing - 10-28-2016

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October 28, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “You diversify.  You have a whole bunch of uncorrelated investment bets. And then you understand it (the situation) as best you can.” — Ray Dalio I had a long talk with an advisor client this week about portfolio construction, the economy, the debt cycle and [...]Read More >

Trade Signals — Little Movement in Equity Market, Equity Trend Remains Bullish, Sentiment Favorable and You’ll Find an Interesting Chart on QE’s Impact on the S&P 500 - 10-26-2016

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By Steve Blumenthal October 26, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,143 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Are We at the End of a Long-Term Debt Cycle? - 10-21-2016

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October 21, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal "So the real question that I think people should think of is: Are we at the end of a long-term debt cycle?" — Ray Dalio I’ve written a great deal about debt.  In last week’s piece, I showed the enormity of the problem.  Growth is slow and I believe will [...]Read More >

Trade Signals — Extreme Pessimism (S/T Bullish), Equity and HY Trends Bullish, Zweig Bond Model Bearish… No Sign of U.S. Recession - 10-19-2016

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By Steve Blumenthal October 19, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,147 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Arnold Palmer — OMG What Was That? - 10-14-2016

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October 14, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The most rewarding things you do in life are often the ones that look like they cannot be done." "I've always made a total effort, even when the odds seemed entirely against me. I never quit trying; I never felt that I didn't have a chance to win.” — Arnold [...]Read More >

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