November 13, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “History does not repeat, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain JPMorgan is out this week predicting the S&P 500 Index will reach 4,500 by the end of next year. I hope they are right, but I have doubts. What might cause such a move? High stock market [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 11, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,563.22 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 4, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,330.61 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes [...]Read More >

October 30, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better,” Theodore Roosevelt explained.  “The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 28, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,330.61 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 21, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,439.9 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes [...]Read More >

October 16, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The 60% stock / 40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 14, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,515 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

October 9, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal "I find it funny that people who didn’t think there was any inflation in the pipeline are now talking about stagflation. This is nothing like the 1970’s, which was a pretty dismal period, and not just because of polyester and disco." - Barry Ritholtz [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 7, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,384 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

October 2, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “Because what most people and their countries want the most is wealth and power, and because money and credit are the biggest single influence on how wealth and power rise and decline, if you don’t understand how money and credit work, you can’t understand [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 30, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,363 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes [...]Read More >

September 25, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “Anyone who looked only at the index of prices would see no reason to suspect any material degree of inflation, whilst anyone who looked at the total volume of bank credit and the prices of common stocks would have been convinced of the presence of an [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 23, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,315 (previous close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem [...]Read More >

September 18, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices. I’ve seen too many things go to zero, stocks and commodities. The whole trick in investing is: “How do I keep from losing everything?” If you use the 200-day moving [...]Read More >