Research & Insight

S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal February 4, 2014 My college soccer coach used to always teach us that “soccer is a game of opposites”. Fake left to move right. That part everyone knows. Where it got complicated (and frustrating for a coach) was tactical positioning in response to [...]Read More >

Feb 4, 2015 Bloomberg Radio’s Catherine Cowdery interviewed CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. CEO Steve Blumenthal last week at the Inside ETFs Conference in Hollywood, Florida.  In the interview, Steve discusses his firm's current fixed income allocation and industry groups that appear at the [...]Read More >

January 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal I spend a great deal of time writing about valuations, probable future returns (near record lows today), portfolio construction and risk management. Reflecting on four days of non-stop sessions, media interviews and meetings at the Inside ETFs Annual [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2009 By Steve Blumenthal January 28, 2014   The most recent trend and sentiment evidence is updated below.  The trend remains positive for both equities and fixed income securities. Included in this week's Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Cyclical [...]Read More >

  Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2014 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and [...]Read More >

January 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I often disdain economic forecasts as a stock market indicator. First, the consensus forecasts of economics are often wrong, and more importantly, the stock market tends to lead the economy, so it is like trying to put the cart in front of the horse.” Ned [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal January 21, 2014 Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed evidence remains favorable (following chart) as do my two favorite cyclical trend indicators (Big Momentum and 13/34-Week EMA).  Daily Investor Sentiment is reading Extreme Pessimism – a short-term [...]Read More >

January 16, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “All I can do is advise you on what has happened before. Once one country goes, capital will look around and turn on whoever they think is next. Eventually, this will move from one to the next. The dollar will be the last man standing. After that, we are [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2010 By Steve Blumenthal January 14, 2014 Today, along with the updated cyclical trend and sentiment charts, let’s take a look at margin debt and liquidity. You’ll see that margin debt is at a record high and liquidity is very low - not a favorable combination. However, the [...]Read More >

NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: Neutral (Neutral for Stocks)   If you are a new reader, the gray area highlights the historical market performance when Investor Sentiment, as measured by Ned Davis Research, moves into the Extreme Optimism (Bearish) Zone (above the dotted black line or a reading [...]Read More >