December 1, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… Focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.” [...]Read More >

November 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” - Benjamin Graham Happy Thanksgiving to you and your wonderful family.  Today’s post is holiday short because by the time it hits your in box I’ll hopefully be [...]Read More >

November 17, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “If you are adding to your long-term holdings of stocks and other risk assets at current market valuations, you are likely to be betting -- knowingly or not -- on a combination of three drivers of future returns; or you are planning to sell your holdings to [...]Read More >

November 10, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “We are going to have to address the debt.  And we are going to get more debt.” – Joe Kalish, Chief Global Macro Strategist, Ned Davis Research This week’s On My Radar is an investment outlook piece.  While current trend evidence remains bullish, you’ll see [...]Read More >

November 3, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “There are essentially two forces influencing returns: growth and inflation. The task, then, is building a portfolio that can weather any scenario, regardless of what these factors are doing…  You should be building a diversified portfolio with assets that [...]Read More >

October 27, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Collectively, the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan own one-third of the global bond market. “ – Mary Ellen Stanek, CFA Managing Director and Director of Asset Management, Robert W. Baird & Co., Chief Investment Officer, Baird [...]Read More >

October 20, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “You have to bet against the consensus and be right to be successful in the markets.” – Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates, LP It remains a decidedly risk-on environment.  Interest rates are higher, the dollar is higher and the stock market is higher. [...]Read More >

October 13, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Long-term Investors need to be invested in long-term assets, but pay special attention to limiting downside losses. The best way to make money in the long term is not losing it in the short term.” – Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist J.P. Morgan Asset [...]Read More >

October 6, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal "We think the main attribute of the next crisis will be severe liquidity disruptions resulting from market developments since the last crisis." - Marko Kolanovic, Ph.D., Head of Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (Source: The [...]Read More >

September 29, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “It isn’t what’s in my head that’s most valuable, although I did learn a lot along the way; it’s knowing how to deal with not knowing that’s been the source of my success.” – Ray Dalio I’d like to take you to two places today.  One is life and the pursuit [...]Read More >

September 22, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The message from a string of BIS [Bank of International Settlements] reports is that the US dollar is both the barometer and agent of global risk appetite and credit leverage. Episodes of dollar weakness - such as this year - flush the world with liquidity [...]Read More >

September 15, 2017 By Stephen Blumenthal “While asset prices have decoupled from fundamentals, the gap has been filled by quantitative easing, large cash reserves by corporations and worsening inequality.” - Mohamed El-Erian: In Investing, The Journey Is Not The Destination Last week, investors [...]Read More >

September 8, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Expect lower returns and rocky markets for the next 2-3 years.” > Joe Davis, Global Chief Economist, Vanguard Group I’m writing to you from Chicago where I am attending the Morningstar ETF Conference.  Vanguard’s global chief economist, Joe Davis, kicked [...]Read More >

September 1, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “No act of kindness is too small.  The gift of kindness may start as a small ripple that over time can turn into a tidal wave affecting the lives of many.” Kevin Heath The car is loaded with clean clothes and dog food.  I’m heading out mid-morning to help [...]Read More >

August 25, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “[T]he big elephant in the room is the Fed.” David Rosenberg Chief Economist and Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates This week the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is hosting its annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and a number [...]Read More >