March 16, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “A period of stability induces behavioral responses that erode margins of safety, reduce liquidity, raise cash flow commitments relative to income and profits, and raise the price of risky relative to safe assets – all combining to weaken the ability of the [...]Read More >

March 9, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Invest in things that have never happened before, hedge for regression to the mean and plan for the unimaginable.”  ― John Burbank, Passport Capital Mauldin Economics SIC 2018 “When the Fed moves in one direction they are ultimately laying the seeds for [...]Read More >

March 2, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal   “The greatest mistake of the individual investor is to think that a market that did well is a good market rather than a more expensive market.” - Ray Dalio  “Volatility is an instrument of truth, and the more you deny the truth, the more the truth will [...]Read More >

February 23, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Remember teamwork begins by building trust. And the only way to do that is to overcome our need for invulnerability.”  ― Patrick Lencioni The Five Dysfunctions of a Team: A Leadership Fable I know I frustrate my team more often than I care to admit.  My [...]Read More >

February 16, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Volatility fires almost always begin in the debt markets… Volatility is the brother of credit… and volatility regime shifts are driven by the credit cycle.” “When times are good and credit is easy, a company can rely on the extension of cheap debt to [...]Read More >

February 9, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “We are replaying an age-old storyline of financial bubbles that has been played many times before…” “This market’s current temperament feels so much like either Japan in 1989 or the U.S. in 1999. And the events that have transpired so far this January make [...]Read More >

February 2, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it." - Mahatma Gandhi Once a month I like review my recession watch indicators.  Why?  In recessions bad stuff happens.  Excesses in the [...]Read More >

January 26, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “For the first time in a very long time, there’s reason to be optimistic about fundamentals gaining enough traction to validate asset prices.” “The world I’m describing is a world in which even the long-term investor has to have a tactical layer on top of the [...]Read More >

January 19, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Happiness is not something readymade. It comes from your own actions.” Dalai Lama Whatever business you might be in, you’ll probably agree with me that a critical key to your success is sales.  Of course, you need great product, great team members and [...]Read More >

January 12, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Anyone who started investing after 1981 has never experienced a bear market in Treasuries. But with short-end Treasury yields now at their highest levels since 2008, and the 10-year yield threatening to break out of its long-term trend channel, could this be [...]Read More >

January 5, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “And then at the end of the day, the most important thing is how good you are at risk control. Ninety-percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control.” – Paul Tudor Jones Last week I shared a personal story with you that, frankly, I very much [...]Read More >

December 29, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “I don’t believe that I am the only person who cannot predict future prices. No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors.  Prices, not investors, predict the future. Despite this, investors hope or believe that they can predict the future, [...]Read More >

December 22, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “BIS [Bank of International Settlements] research suggests that the ups and downs of the dollar – and the cycle of dollar liquidity – are what drive the world’s animal spirits and asset prices. This liquidity spigot is clearly being turned off. The Fed is [...]Read More >

December 15, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “For when the One Great Scorer comes To mark against your name, He writes -- not that you won or lost --  But how you played the Game.” > Grantland Rice (from the poem "Alumnus Football") When I was young, my mother bought me a book written by [...]Read More >

December 8, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal I met Philippa Dunne, co-editor of The Liscio Report, at the Camp Kotok fishing trip last August.  She dials into state tax receipts and has many deep contacts.  What I like is how she tracks the data on the lookout for recession risks.  I found the most recent [...]Read More >