September 6, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 4, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,924 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

August 30, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “We advise the U.S. side not to underestimate the Chinese side’s ability to safeguard its development rights and interests. Don’t say we didn’t warn you!” – Commentary in the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China May 29, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 28, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,861 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

August 23, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “When real yields are low or negative, investors’ returns are not commensurate with risk, so investment falls along with productivity gains and growth prospects.” – Lacy Hunt, Ph.D. and Van Hoisington, Hoisington Investment Management Company I begin this [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 21, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,919 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

August 16, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 14, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,894 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

August 9, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal Foreign exchange volatility is not new in modern finance, though relatively speaking it has been reasonably muted in recent decades compared to preceding ones.  Uncertainty around foreign exchange suppresses business investment in that the ability to repay [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 7, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,858 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

August 2, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal Like the pine trees linin' the windin' road I've got a name, I've got a name Like the singin' bird and the croakin' toad I've got a name, I've got a name And I carry it with me like my daddy did But I'm living the dream that he kept hid Movin' me down the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 31, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,016 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 26, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” – Mario Draghi, President, European Central Bank (July 26, 2012) Still reeling from the financial crisis, central bankers were scrambling to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 24, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,995 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 19, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I think now is a good time 1) to look at past paradigms and paradigm shifts and 2) to focus on the paradigm that we are in and how it might shift because we are late in the current one and likely approaching a shift.” – Ray Dalio, “Paradigm Shifts” (July 17, [...]Read More >