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Trade Signals – Fed Day / Hike #1 - 03-16-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal March 16, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,322 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: End Game – What Happens at the End of the Long-term Debt Accumulation Cycles - 03-11-2022

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March 11, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “History has shown that we shouldn’t rely on governments to protect us financially. On the contrary, we should expect most governments to abuse their privileged positions as the creators and users of money and credit for the same reasons that you might commit [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Macro Outlook Update: War, Commodities, Inflation, Stocks, Bonds and the Fed - 03-9-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal March 9, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,280 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: J.P. Morgan on Inflation - 03-4-2022

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March 4, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal A short helicopter ride from Golden, British Columbia (an hour and a half northeast of Banff) to a tiny resort called Chatter Creek began four days of deep snow powder skiing. The vastness of the mountain range was like nothing I'd ever seen. Day one was a blue [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Russia-Ukraine Conflict Roils Global Markets; Inflation Will Continue to Rise - 03-2-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal March 2, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,306 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Cyclical Bear Market Targets - 02-25-2022

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February 25, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal A very brief OMR post this week. Good friend Jonathan D.T. Ward, author of China's Vision of Victory, was in the press this morning, and I thought I'd share the interview with you. With the Ukraine-Russia conflict in mind and the recovery rally in equities [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Cyclical Bear Market Targets - 02-24-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal February 23, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,225 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar – How Inflationary Depressions Come About - 02-18-2022

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February 18, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "Where the money and credit flow is important to determining what happens. For example, when they no longer go into lending that fuels increases in economic demand and instead go into other currencies and inflation-hedge assets, they fail to stimulate economic [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Market Breadth Continues to Weaken - 02-17-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal February 16, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,475 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar – Understanding Debt, Inflation, and Asset Cycles - 02-11-2022

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February 11, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "In the end, there is always inflation." - Ray Dalio, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates, LP The hottest inflation news in 40 years hit the wires this week. The January Consumer Price Index report showed the most significant [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Inflation Surges 7.5%… 10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 2% - 02-10-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal February 9, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,587 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar – A Story of Hope - 02-4-2022

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February 4, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal Pause the story of hope for just a minute as I do my best to set the stage.  Jeremy Grantham is calling our current state a "Super Bubble." If you missed it, last week's On My Radar was titled "Three Sigma – Three Events in the Last 100 Years (Until Now)." [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Dr. Copper Turns Negative on the Global Economy - 02-4-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal February 2, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,350 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Three Sigma – Three Events in the Last 100 Years (Until Now) - 01-28-2022

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January 28, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “A two sigma is the kind of deviation that should occur every 44 years. Because we're a little wilder and less efficient than we should be, it happens every 35 years. Every 35 years feels about right… one event in a career and twice in a lifetime. Three [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Downside Risks Remain - 01-27-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal January 26, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,350 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

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