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Trade Signals: Short-term Trading Top? - 08-19-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal August 18, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,274 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar: War Is Inflationary - 08-12-2022

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Aug 12, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "U.S. consumers were soaking up all the cheap stuff the world had to offer: the asset rich, benefiting from decades of QE, bought high-end stuff from Europe produced using cheap Russian gas, and lower-income households bought all the cheap stuff coming from China. [...]Read More >

Trade Signals: The July CPI Surprise - 08-11-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal August 11, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,207 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Odds Favor Stagflation That Could Last For Years - 08-5-2022

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Aug 5, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "MP3 reflationary policies injected massive amounts of money and credit into economies, leading to self-reinforcing high nominal growth, leading to self-reinforcing inflation, leading to an abrupt shift in market discounting from a benign monetary policy to a [...]Read More >

Trade Signals: Bear Markets – Path, Depth and Duration - 08-3-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal August 3, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,070 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar: “Damn Skippy I Will” (And A Story About Hubris) - 07-29-2022

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July 29, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “The Yellen Fed was peak Fed. Peak, not in the sense of maximum balance sheet expansion, but in the sense of maximum faith and maximum zealotry that the Fed’s three toolboxes—short-term interest rates, balance sheet operations, and communication policy—could [...]Read More >

Trade Signals: Fed Hikes 75 bps, Negative GDP, Recession - 07-28-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal July 28, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,070 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Debt, Margin Debt and Fair Value - 07-22-2022

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July 22, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “Because most everyone wants most everything to go up and because there is a drug called credit that produces both upswings and a byproduct depressant called debt, there is a cycle of accumulating debt liabilities and debt assets that is followed by the reducing [...]Read More >

Trade Signals: Bear Market Trend Intact - 07-21-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal July 22, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,948 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Diversify and/or Play the Cycle - 07-15-2022

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July 15, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “From 2008 until recently the Federal Reserve and other central banks kept interest rates abnormally low. They did this because it is the time-honored central bank playbook. Make borrowing cheap and you can generate the kind of economic activity that spurs [...]Read More >

Trade Signals: 9.1% Inflation – Paul Volcker vs. Jerome Powell - 07-14-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal July 14, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,771 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Inflation and Gold - 07-8-2022

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July 8, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “We’re now on a path to raise rates half a percent at a time until rates reach an arbitrarily determined, neutral level of around 2.5–3%. This gentle response is akin to trying to clear out your snow-covered driveway with an ice cream scooper.” – David Einhorn, [...]Read More >

Trade Signals: Avoiding Recession - 07-7-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal July 7, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,895 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return investors [...]Read More >

On My Radar: A Mid-Year Look at Valuations and Future Returns (Better) - 07-1-2022

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July 1, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “Adjusting for inflation, first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, NASDAQ down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression, next up earnings compression so maybe halfway there.” – Michael Burry @MichaelJBurry If quantitative easing helped the stock [...]Read More >

Trade Signals: 300+ Ph.D.’s? The Fed is Guessing!!! - 06-30-2022

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By Steve Blumenthal June 29, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,819 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >

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