Research & Insight

December 18, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “There is a doctrine in finance called the dividend discount model. It says that the price of a common stock is the present value of its future cash flows discounted by a suitable rate of interest. Now what would happen to the calculation of the value of that [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 14, 2015  I’ve been warning for some time of a coming default wave in the high-yield market and the importance of staying tactical (flexible).  It appears to be nearing.  Prices on high-yield securities hit a six-year low on Friday.  The decline in oil has caused many [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2047 By Steve Blumenthal December 16, 2015 Today is Fed day.  I’m posting this piece just prior to their interest rate decision.  My fingers are crossed for functional Wi-Fi – I’m traveling home from business in Salt Lake City.  And a few days on the snow. High-yield [...]Read More >

December 11, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “You are driving forward and the road you are on ends.  You have come to what the British call a T-Junction.  You can transition to one of two alternatives.  But you cannot stay on the road you are on. One alternative is good.  It is a hand off from central [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2044 By Steve Blumenthal December 9, 2015 “We’re looking at some real carnage in the junk-bond market.  This is a little bit disconcerting that we’re talking about raising interest rates with the credit markets in corporate credit absolutely tanking. They’re falling apart.” – [...]Read More >

December 4, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “The economy is like a machine.  At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine.  But many people don’t understand it – or they don’t agree on how it works – and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering... Seeing the economy and [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2094 By Steve Blumenthal December 2, 2015 There is improvement in several of the charts this week.  Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed has moved back to neutral from -2.  For now, that is good news. You’ll also see that the trend data as measured by a weekly moving average [...]Read More >

By Ray Dalio Below is an excerpt from Ray Dalio's piece titled, "How The Economic Machine Works": "The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine. But many people don’t understand it – or they don’t agree on how it works – and this has led to a [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2089 By Steve Blumenthal November 25, 2015 Overall, from a trading perspective, I am now with a neutral view on equities.  Our CMG NDR Momentum Index (my favorite measure) which looks at momentum and market breadth remains in a sell signal.  However, the weekly 13-week vs. [...]Read More >