Research & Insight

S&P 500 Index 1922 By Steve Blumenthal February 17, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and is neutral for high yield.  Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic.  Such extreme readings are generally bullish for equites.  We are finally seeing the oversold rally. The [...]Read More >

February 12, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six ‘Top Trade’ Calls for 2016” February 9, 2016 Bloomberg News From Financial Advisor Magazine: “The dollar versus a basket of euro and yen; yields on Italian bonds versus their German counterparts; U.S. inflation [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1863 By Steve Blumenthal February 10, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and high yield.  We continue to see relative strength leadership in utilities, fixed income, tax-free fixed income and gold.  Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic.  This supports a [...]Read More >

February 5, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Clearly, QE has not worked. We have not had one year of 3%+ growth since the Great Recession and are barely averaging 2%.  Yes, if your measure is the stock market and other financial assets that have inflated, then QE has worked quite well.  But the boost QE [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal February 3, 2016 Our primary equity market indicator, the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum/Breadth Index remains in a “SELL.”  CMG HY is back in a “SELL.”  The market is not on solid footing. One of the indicators I like to watch and post [...]Read More >

Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2015 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter.  In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG [...]Read More >

January 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen – who are more like teenagers at a prom night. They are spiking the punch bowl and handing out free drinks and hoping to get lucky at the end of the night.” James Montier, GMO “Understanding the forces of Supply and Demand in [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1898 By Steve Blumenthal January 27, 2015 Pessimism remains extreme with the Weekly Sentiment at the lowest (most bearish) reading since 2011.  That supports a short-term bullish move.  I remain in the “hedge or sell the rallies” camp. Our Zweig Bond model moved to a sell [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 22, 2016 "Since the only way you are going to find solutions to painful problems is by thinking deeply about them - i.e., reflecting - if you can develop a knee-jerk reaction to pain that is to reflect rather than to fight or flee, it will lead to your rapid [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1820 By Steve Blumenthal January 20, 2015 Our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index remains the dominant signal, in my view (chart below).  It triggered a “Neutral” signal on June 30, 2015 suggesting a move to Treasury bills or “BIL” (cash) or hedge.  Additionally, [...]Read More >