Research & Insight

By Steve Blumenthal March 23, 2016 S&P 500® Index 2036 Recall the extreme level of investor pessimism of just six weeks ago.  In fact, extreme negative investor sentiment readings were the norm last November through February.  I’ve been suggesting since December that extreme pessimism was [...]Read More >

March 18, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “So what do we do? Anything. Something. So long as we just don’t sit there. If we screw it up, start over. Try something else. If we wait until we’ve satisfied all the uncertainties, it may be too late.” - Lee Iacocca “This is the persistent tendency of men to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 16, 2016 S&P 500® Index 2018 The long-term models, CMG Ned Davis Research (NDR) Large Cap Momentum Index and 13/34-Week EMA, inform our long-term market outlook.  The primary trend remains negative.  The long-term signals guide our cautious view on the market.  [...]Read More >

March 11, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Last week’s mention of the great Art Cashin sent a number of emails my way.  The one that touched me most was from Richard who worked for Paine Webber from 1974 to 1987.  Back then every broker had a small speaker on his or her desk.  We in the industry know it [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 9, 2016 S&P 500® Index 1985 The extreme level of investor pessimism is abating.  The best market rallies begin at points of extreme pessimism.  Such pessimism is typically short-term bullish for the market.  However, the overall trend for equities remains down [...]Read More >

March 4, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The best state pension plan is only 42% funded.” I was in Florida this week attending the 32nd Annual Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Risk Management Conference.  Attendees were mostly asset managers and larger pension and endowment managers.  Several [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 2, 2016 Now what? Previously I suggested several rally targets.  The first was 1900.  The second 1950. The third 2000.  The S&P 500® is nearing that test.  Overall, the cyclical trend picture has not changed.  The weight of technical evidence suggests a negative [...]Read More >

February 26, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Time to put 25% to 30% of your wealth in cash.” – Mohammed El-Erian "If you go to an investment adviser, they'll tell you cash is wasted," says El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz.  ‘I don't think so.’  ‘You will have many opportunities to buy [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1908 By Steve Blumenthal February 24, 2016 I mentioned in last week’s post that the S&P 500® Index is nearing its February high at 1947.20.  Extreme investor pessimism supported a short-term rally and both the February high at 1947.20 and the 50-day moving average line [...]Read More >

February 19, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “If zero or negative interest rates actually fixed what's broken in the economy, we'd all be living in Paradise after seven years of zero interest rates.” - Charles Hugh Smith (blog) I am up early, in my favorite chair and loving the coffee that Susan just [...]Read More >