Research & Insight

S&P 500 Index 1642 By Steve Blumenthal August 21, 2013 Included in this week’s update: Sentiment Charts – working off excessive optimism Cyclical Bull Market Charts – S&P 500 Index level 1600 looks important Duration of Cyclical Bull and Cyclical Bear Chart – average length [...]Read More >

July 12, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Stonewall Golf Club – hole 18   Stonewalled – What’s the average investor do? We walked off the 18th green and Chuck, my good friend and long-time caddie, says, “Steve, can I ask you a question about my wife’s 401k? What should I do?”  I sensed the [...]Read More >

August 16, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Bright Future “Dad, though this card is small, it was the only message that I could find that even came close to how I’ve felt about this summer.  Thank you – for this entire summer.  Thank you for encouraging me to do something I didn’t think I was able to [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1690 By Steve Blumenthal August 14, 2013 I did some digging into the data around past cyclical bull periods and thought I’d share some of what I learned with you: The current cyclical bull move began in March of 2009 and is now four years and five months old. This makes [...]Read More >

August 9, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal (from the 361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing) Every quarter for as long as I can remember, I anxiously await Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly investment letter.  Jeremy’s firm manages more than $100 billion.  I remember how he stuck to his disciplined process in [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1687 By Steve Blumenthal August 7, 2013 Following are the most recent Investor Sentiment and Cyclical Trend charts.  Investor Sentiment remains in the Extreme Optimism or “Bearish” zone. As a quick aside, years ago I was the elected Chairman of a non-profit industry [...]Read More >

August 2, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Like the Wile E. Coyote, we have raced ahead and are finding ourselves out over the cliff.  Slower growth, manipulated GDP, underfunded pensions and unprecedented global currency manipulation…we are far from normal conditions – too much debt remains the major [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1685 By Steve Blumenthal July 31, 2013 I met Rob Arnott several years ago at John Mauldin’s 60th birthday party and have been a big fan since.  Yesterday I visited with Rob at the Four Seasons Hotel in Philadelphia.  He was presenting his thoughts on the markets, forward [...]Read More >

  Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2013 second quarter and year-to-date net performance information for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG [...]Read More >

July 26, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Sometimes I sit back and reflect on just how grateful I am to be in this business.  Challenging? Yes, but very intellectually stimulating.  I am extremely excited today after a productive meeting focusing on how to better manage fixed income portfolio exposure.  [...]Read More >