Research & Insight

Trade Signals – Mixed Investor Sentiment S&P 500 Index 1843 By Steve Blumenthal April 16, 2014 Sentiment has become more constructive. The Daily Trading Sentiment Composite is back in the Extreme Pessimism (Bullish) zone supporting a further rally. The cyclical trend as measured by Big [...]Read More >

April 11, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal The Fed owns 30% of all mortgage backed securities and nearly 25% of all the Treasury bonds.  Wow! Unimaginable, but real. I find myself frequently visiting the Fed’s website.  I particularly like Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher.  As a former fund [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1852 By Steve Blumenthal April 9, 2014 I was pretty aggressive with my call to hedge in last week’s Trade Signals (What Was I Thinking).  That view remains unchanged. While the equity markets cyclical trend remains bullish, the seasonal patterns are concerning and with [...]Read More >

Recent pieces have focused on the likely path to higher interest rates.  This is a major problem for all bond investors, especially if you have 40% or more allocated to bonds.  The vast majority of investors own bonds. I believe the bond market is experiencing a long-term secular bull peak.  With [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1885 By Steve Blumenthal April 2, 2014 If you have yet to put some form of portfolio protection in place, I believe it wise to have it in place by month end.  I’m referring specifically to your long-term equity portfolio exposure (your stocks for the long run).  I do not [...]Read More >

March 28, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”  Winston Churchill. Last night I had the absolute pleasure of seeing NY Times columnist Adam Bryant, speak at my stepson’s school.  Bryant [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1865 By Steve Blumenthal March 26, 2014 We are nearing the end of QE.  In last week’s On My Radar titled, The Likely Path to Higher Rates, I posted a great chart that suggests the Fed will begin hiking rates sooner and/or more aggressively than previously expected. One of [...]Read More >

March 21, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal It was a big week for Chairwoman Janet Yellen.  Loved her transparency.  Can’t you just feel the collective investment world sitting on the edge of its seat?  We are all watching with concern and for good reason. So with interest rates front and center, [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1860 By Steve Blumenthal March 19, 2014 Surprisingly, given the global stress, sentiment remains at extreme optimism.  The cyclical bull market trend continues to be the dominant trend and the story supporting the market remains Fed policy (and global central bank liquidity). [...]Read More >

March 14, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal It sure feels like we are moving towards a point of crisis.  The number two economy in the world is in serious decline; their customers' economies (mostly the U.S. and Europe) have slowed.  The great boom in China appears to be over.  Prime the printing presses [...]Read More >