Research & Insight

S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal May 21, 2014 The cyclical trend for both stocks and bonds remains bullish.  Sentiment is once again mixed with short-term sentiment back in the Extreme Pessimism zone (a bullish reading) while my favorite sentiment indicator remains neutral. I’ve [...]Read More >

May 16, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Become a master observer.  Have the willingness to look at things that nobody else has bothered to look at. Identify points of meaning.  We learn when we observe.” Peyton Manning Famed quarterback Peyton Manning presented this morning at the Envestnet 2014 [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1893 By Steve Blumenthal May 14, 2014 I’ve updated the charts and please note that the commentary remains largely unchanged from last week’s post. Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Investor Sentiment: Crowd Sentiment Poll is Nearing Extreme Optimism Cyclical [...]Read More >

May 9, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Man.  Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money.  Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health.  And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present: the result being that he does not live in the present or the future: [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1873 By Steve Blumenthal May 7, 2014 Since 1950, nearly all of the S&P 500’s gains have come from October 31 through April 30; last year we saw 10% added in that time frame.  We have just entered the “Sell In May And Go Away” period.  The question is, should one follow [...]Read More >

May 2, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Valuations are flashing red.  Driven higher by QE, the markets have exceeded (as measured by John Hussman) the prior bubble records achieved in 2000 and 2007.  Brace yourself (and your portfolios). This doesn't mean markets can't move higher; central banks have [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1879 By Steve Blumenthal April 30, 2014 Investment sentiment is unusually mixed.  My favorite sentiment indicator is the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll (based on weekly data).  It continues to remain neutral (neither excessively optimistic nor excessively pessimistic).  You’ll see [...]Read More >

Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2014 first quarter net performance information for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter.  In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG [...]Read More >

April 25, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “The Fed’s manipulations have left it in the position of a tightrope walker with no net; one who must exert all his energy in a concentrated effort just to keep moving forward, even as the slightest slip or unexpected gust could cause a catastrophic end to the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1875 By Steve Blumenthal April 23, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals are the usual weekly sentiment and cyclical trend charts along with an update on the Zweig Bond Model: Investor Sentiment: Crowd Sentiment Poll Neutral, Daily Trading Sentiment Composite Extreme [...]Read More >