Research & Insight

S&P 500 Index 1958 By Steve Blumenthal June 25, 2014   Big Mo remains bullish and the Zweig Bond Model remains on a bullish buy signal for bonds.  Both trends remain positive. I believe the inherent level of risk is high as indicated in the above Risk Meter because both valuations [...]Read More >

June 20, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "The concept behind investor sentiment is that the stock market tends to be a manifestation of group psychology in motion.  Highs tend to coincide with extreme group enthusiasm and lows coincide with excessive group fear.  At extremes in opinion, the stock market [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1946 By Steve Blumenthal June 18, 2014 Retail investor sentiment has caught up with other sentiment indicators.  Understandably nervous after two 50% declines (2002 and 2008/09), individual investors are feeling optimistic. For investors last to get back into the game - their [...]Read More >

June 13, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Believe in yourself.  Have faith in your abilities!  Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy."  - Norman Vincent Peale When I was young, I was crazy about soccer.  My dad, like many, was a baseball, [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1944 By Steve Blumenthal June 11, 2014 I highlight the following chart this week showing how much stocks are owned as a percentage of total household financial assets.  The idea is to see if we can get a sense for just how optimistic or pessimistic individual investors are [...]Read More >

June 6, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal One of the more challenging debates in our business is tied to the proper use of P/E (price/earnings) as a valuation measure.  One expert says P/Es are low, pointing to forward earnings estimates. The other says P/Es are high.  Buy at bargain prices or overpay? [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1927 By Steve Blumenthal June 4, 2014 I favor a probability-based view towards risk.  On Friday, I’ll update the most recent (updated through May month-end) valuation charts and share some data on inflation, current investor mutual fund/ETF holdings and margin debt. Today, [...]Read More >

May 30, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile: just as a parent who overly cocoons a child prepares that offspring poorly to function in the wider world, so policy makers intent on cushioning the private sector from every shock in the economic cycle are doing the overall system a [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1913 By Steve Blumenthal May 28, 2014 There are a number of ways one can measure the equity markets’ primary trend.  My favorite cyclical bull/bear market trend chart is NDR’s Big Mo.  As you’ll see in the most recent chart below, Big Mo remains constructive on the market.  [...]Read More >

May 23, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Once in a while you will stumble upon the truth but most of us manage to pick ourselves up and hurry along as if nothing had happened."  - Winston Churchill Trading high yield bonds for nearly 24 years has taught me a thing or two about opportunity and risk.  [...]Read More >