Research & Insight

July 17, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “When it does happen, it’s usually not the first-derivative event that people are caught off guard by. They’re caught off guard by the second, third and fourth derivative events. It’s ‘Oh yeah, when interest rates go up, that happens.” - Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs’ [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2111 By Steve Blumenthal July 15, 2015 Investor sentiment remains the major positive story for the market. Current readings reflect extreme pessimism which is historically bullish for the market. I see continued deterioration in trend evidence yet both Big Mo and the [...]Read More >

July 10, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal   There is a high probability of a global recession. Today, let’s take a look at two models that have done a good job identifying recessions.  One says we are near or currently in a global recession. The reason this is important is that all significant [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2081 By Steve Blumenthal July 8, 2015 Trend evidence is deteriorating with fewer stocks holding up the market.  One of my favorite equity market indicators fired a sell signal on 6-30-2015.  You can see that chart below. The Zweig Bond Model remains in a sell and our High [...]Read More >

July 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “If more respected investors had warned about the market in ’07, we might have avoided the crisis in ’08.  I think the public is walking into a trap again…” -  Carl Icahn via Twitter June 24, 2015 Following up on his Twitter post, Icahn called in to CNBC. [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2075 By Steve Blumenthal July 1, 2015 I have a bit of an “out there” market view.  I believe that the stock market will go even higher despite the fact that the current cyclical bull market is overvalued, over-believed and aged.  Fundamental to this view being right is being [...]Read More >

June 26, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “People are habitually guided by the rear-view mirror and, for the most part, by the vistas immediately behind them.” - Warren Buffett I was the keynote speaker last night at a large advisor client event in suburban DC.  The title of my presentation was [...]Read More >

6/25/2015 @ 1:35PM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor Are Stocks Really Cheap Relative To Bonds? Steve Blumenthal asks in his latest Forbes article. An excerpt from the article: "What looks cheap today becomes not so cheap when rates rise and, as you’ll see, the market is certainly “not cheap.” The [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2112 By Steve Blumenthal June 24, 2015 Trend remains favorable but aged and it frankly feels tired.  Sentiment is now neutral and both the CMG HY and the Zweig Bond Model remain in sell signals. I posted this next chart on our Advisor Central blog page. This is from John [...]Read More >

June 19, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “The probability of loss is no more measurable than the probability of rain. It can be modeled, and it can be estimated (and by experts pretty well), but it cannot be known.” - Howard Marks, Chairman, Oaktree Capital I enjoyed that quote as well as the piece [...]Read More >