Research & Insight

S&P 500 Index 2005 By Steve Blumenthal October 15, 2015 The CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index remains in a sell (June 30, 2015 at S&P 500 Index level 2063).  Two weeks ago, NDR’s Big Mo indicator moved to a sell signal and last week moved back to a buy signal.  I favor the CMG NDR [...]Read More >

October 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "Facing up" to returns that will be less than the historical norm is the "single largest factor out there we have to deal with." – AQR’s Cliff Asness Valuation work seems to be showing up everywhere. Being the data geek I am, each month I like to take a look [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1990 By Steve Blumenthal October 7, 2015 The market has rallied 100 points since last week.  We have reached a point of logical overhead resistance.  I share a few updates on our tactical strategies (continuing to pivot to bonds) and highlight an S&P 500 Index chart [...]Read More >

October 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Investor Behavior – “You can bury your head in 10q’s and 8k’s and memorize a thousand facts about a company. You can become an expert on a given stock sector and establish relationships with all of the executives who run the show. You can build your own DCF [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal September 30, 2015 With all of the market turmoil, the sell-off is quite normal by historical measures.  The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) is down 16% from the high, the Nasdaq is down 13% from its high, the DJIA is down 12% and the S&P 500 [...]Read More >

September 25, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “This Fed, massively dominated by academic Keynesians, has demonstrated that the conditions for normalizing rates are far more stringent than many of us had been led to believe from the speeches of the FOMC members themselves. This is a Federal Reserve with [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1948 By Steve Blumenthal September 23, 2015 Our CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program is back in a Sell signal.  One of the things I’ve learned over my 20+ years of trading HY is that the HY bond market tends to be a good forward leading indicator for the stock market.  I came [...]Read More >

September 18, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “The effect of years of zero interest rate policies has been to progressively drive investors toward securities of greater and greater risk, in the belief that “There Is No Alternative” (TINA). In every other market cycle across history, once an “overvalued, [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1986 By Steve Blumenthal September 16, 2015 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Sell Signal 1. CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index: Sell Signal 2. 13/34-Week EMA on the S&P 500 Index: Sell Signal 3. NDR Big Mo: Neutral – Nearing a [...]Read More >

September 11, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Of the nine market declines associated with recessions that started with valuations above the mean, the average decline was -42.8%. Of the four declines that began with valuations below the mean, the average was -19.9%” – Doug Short I don’t believe a [...]Read More >