October 28, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "The next stage of the tightening cycle is likely to be an economic slowdown as policymakers work to bring inflation back to target." – Bob Prince, Co-CEO Bridgewater Associates The Fed is in the middle of a tightening cycle. In Bridgewater [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Nearing Extreme Optimism
By Steve Blumenthal October 28, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,875 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Why Last Week Was a Big Deal
October 21, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "About a nanosecond after money and equity and debt were invented, the business of facilitating these transactions was invented. Today we call this business “Wall Street,” but of course it goes back thousands of years, way before there were things [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: “Someone Is Going To Be Offsides”
By Steve Blumenthal October 20, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,666 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Market Valuations Update – Tin Hats On
October 14, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "My biggest concern is that further tightening will test the fragilities of market plumbing," - Scott Minerd, Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Guggenheim Partners Global CIO Fragilities indeed. During last week's team call, our debate [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: The 2022 Great Bond Bear Market
By Steve Blumenthal October 14, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,609 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Dollar Wrecking Ball
October 7, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "All those factors that cause a bull market, they're not only stopping, they're reversing. We are in deep trouble. You don't even need to talk about Black Swans to be worried here. To me, the risk-reward of owning assets doesn't make a lot of [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Not Yet Out of The Woods
By Steve Blumenthal October 7, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,644 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Merciless Mathematics of Loss
September 30, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die in euphoria." - Sir John Templeton Grab a stiff drink and feign a smile; the technicals are not looking so good. The S&P is headed for a third straight quarterly loss, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: No Surprise, Things Are Breaking
By Steve Blumenthal September 29, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,640 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Additional Large Increases Ahead – Pieces Will Move, Something Will Break
September 23, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity... most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: FedEx, Mortgage Rates, Housing and Jerome Powell
By Steve Blumenthal September 21, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,856 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Update on Stock Market Valuations, Forward Returns and Inflation
September 16, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal "The process starts with inflation. Then it goes to interest rates, then to other markets, and then to the economy." - Ray Dalio, Founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer, and Member of the Bridgewater Board The process is in motion. Over the last several [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: CPI Inflation at 8.3%, Food at 11.4% and Stocks Down 4%
By Steve Blumenthal September 14, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 3,932 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of various Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic, and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Great Reset September 2022 Update
September 9, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “I fish to scratch the surface of those mysteries, for nearness to the beautiful, and to reassure myself the world remains.” - Carl Safina The islands of Haida Gwaii, formerly known as the Queen Charlotte Islands, sit in the northern Pacific, off the coast [...]Read More >
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