S&P 500 Index 1998 By Steve Blumenthal September 24, 2014 Commentary is unchanged from last week. The charts are all updated. I include an additional high yield bond trend chart – thus the creatively boring title: HY’s in Decline. Included in this week’s Trade Signals: • Cyclical [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Too Many Hot Dogs
September 19, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal As the debt bubble steps forward, we search for signs of inflation and deflation. Some growth and inflation is apparent in the U.S. while it is deflation and recession pressures in Europe and Japan. Which way are interest rates headed? The year-to-date [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Too Few Bears
S&P 500 Index 1984 By Steve Blumenthal September 17, 2014 Too Few Bears: You have to go all the way back to October 1987 to find a period that matched today’s lack of bearishness. We are now at a 27 year sentiment extreme showing complete lack of downside concern on the part of [...]Read More >
On My Radar: It’s All About That Fed, ‘Bout That Fed
By Steve Blumenthal September 12, 2014 “All About That Bass Because you know I'm all about that bass 'Bout that bass, no treble I'm all about that bass 'Bout that bass, no treble” It’s about a 35 minute drive to school each morning and, frankly, it is some of the best quiet time I have with [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Buffett’s Favorite Valuation Indicator
S&P 500 Index 1984 By Steve Blumenthal September 10, 2014 We can look at valuation measures to asses the degree of market risk and to get an idea as to what forward probable returns might look like (by most all measures, low). Yet overvalued markets can grow to be more and more overvalued. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Higher We Go
September 5, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Higher we go! While valuation and sentiment data scream caution, trend data and Fed policy tells us to continue the ride. Today, let’s take a look at the latest valuation charts and an updated look at Don’t Fight the Fed or the Tape. As you’ll see, the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Trend Positive, Weekly Sentiment at Extreme Optimism
S&P 500 Index 2002 By Steve Blumenthal September 3, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Cyclical Bullish Trend for Stocks Remains (as measured by Big Mo and 13/34-Week EMA S&P 500 Index chart) Weekly Investor Sentiment Indicator - NDR Crowd [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Half-Full Growth Rates
August 29, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal As we enter the last weekend of the summer, a bummer of a thought though I do favor the fall, I thought I’d keep this piece short and share with you what I found to be a very balanced and well thought-out view on the current state of the economy. With granted [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Trend & Sentiment Evidence
S&P 500 Index 1997 By Steve Blumenthal August 27, 2014 I posted the following chart on Wednesday, August 13. Short-term sentiment was extremely negative suggesting an oversold rally for the market. The S&P 500 Index was at 1933. It closed above 2000 for the first time in history [...]Read More >
Bloomberg: Blumenthal on Bond Trends
CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal spoke to Bloomberg News about about trends in the bond market. The story by By Sridhar Natarajan and Matt Robinson, Junk Bonds Overtaken by High Grade as 2014’s Favored Bet, begins: Bonds sold by investment-grade companies worldwide are on pace [...]Read More >
On My Radar: “Very Far From Normal”
August 22, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal To me, the next cyclical market down trend is linked to Fed Policy and the timing of their change in interest rate policy. For now, I remain in the Don't Fight the Fed or The Trend camp (constructive on equities). So what happens when the Fed raises [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Cyclical Bullish Trend for Stocks Remains
S&P 500 Index 1983 By Steve Blumenthal August 20, 2014 The following commentary is unchanged from last week’s post - the charts are updated through today: Despite my personal feelings that: the cyclical bull market is aged, profit margins have likely peaked (and will likely [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Teach Them to Fly
August 15, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal There is an argument being made that the currently high valuation measures (PE, dividends, price to book, price to sales) are really not so high when you consider that today’s interest rates are so low. The thinking is that today’s ultra-low interest rates [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Short-term Sentiment Says Buy
S&P 500 Index 1933 By Steve Blumenthal August 13, 2014 Despite my personal feelings that: the cyclical bull market is aged, profit margins have likely peaked (and will likely mean revert), the market is meaningfully overvalued and over-owned, and margin debt is high and cash [...]Read More >
Steve in Bloomberg On Boosting Debt Bets
Boosting debt bets could lead to a repeat of 2008 financial crisis, CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal tells Bloomberg. Derivatives that helped inflate the 2007 credit bubble are being remade for a new generation, writes Sridhar Natarajan and Alastair Marsh in Bloomberg yesterday. The [...]Read More >
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