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Trade Signals – Not Yet Out of the Woods

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By Steve Blumenthal April 8, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,715 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The Beginning of the End of the Pandemic

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April 3, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “There are no new eras—excesses are never permanent.” – Bob Farrell Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules for Investing I went to sleep last night with more hope in my heart then I’ve felt over the last several weeks. These days, I’ve been feeling more like Eeyore than [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Expect Retest; New Lows Follow Waterfall Declines

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By Steve Blumenthal April 1, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,471 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

Thoughts from the Frontline: Postcards from the Frontline

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By John Mauldin March 27, 2020 Unprecedented events are happening so fast, I barely know where to start. But let’s begin with a small one, noticeable perhaps only to me. Over the years I’ve received thousands of reader emails responding to my letters. I read and appreciate them all, even the [...]Read More >

On My Radar: The End of the Long-Term Debt Supercycle

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March 27, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal "We entered into the current crisis with a whole financial system that had been incentivized by policymakers to take on excessive levels of debt and leverage. The turmoil we are seeing right now is the result of the unwinding of this leverage. The primary [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – $2 Trillion is a Good Start

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By Steve Blumenthal March 25, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,564 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

On My Radar: GVC – The Great Virus Crisis

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March 20, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “I am proposing that we do not think outside of the box. We must get rid of the box.” – John Mauldin This week’s piece was hard for me to write. How does an optimist keep their spirits up? I’m OD’ing on the news and with coffee in hand early this morning, I [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Pandemic, Cycles, Recession Begins

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March 13, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We didn’t know then, just like we don’t know now, how long or how sharp or shallow of a downturn we will face.” - Alfred Lin, Partner, Sequoia Capital Sequoia Capital is a venture capital firm that invests in early stage businesses, providing seed or series [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Why Risk Management?

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By Steve Blumenthal March 11, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 2,791 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

Thoughts from the Frontline: COVID-19: A Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix

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By John Mauldin February 28, 2020 For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. Historically suboptimal growth? Sure, but sub-3% growth isn’t a recession. The coronavirus obviously qualifies as an exogenous event. But [...]Read More >