By Steve Blumenthal
November 11, 2022
S&P 500 Index — 3,956
Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return investors demand to compensate them for the risks they take.) Risk premiums vary over time in response to new market information. Investors react to the changes gradually, and this creates trends.
Rules-based Trend following strategies don’t predict; they react to what price movement signals in terms of supply and demand. With more buyers than sellers, the price moves higher. With more sellers than buyers, the price moves lower. The long-term objective of trend-following is to participate in secular bull market gains while minimizing the losses associated with secular bear market declines.
Trade Signals is organized into three sections:
- Market Commentary
- Trade Signals — Dashboard of Indicators
- Charts with Explanations
For informational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Notable this week:
The Consumer Price Index came in lower than expected, increasing 0.4% for the month of October and 7.7% from a year ago. Dow Jones had estimated increases of 0.6% and 7.9%, respectively. I guess you call this a move in the right direction; however so slight. The markets loved the news. The S&P 500 gained 5.54%, and the NASDAQ, 7.35%. Short sellers were taken to the woodshed.
Despite the small bright spot from the CPI, the broader picture is still on the grim side: China is in a recession, Europe is in a recession, and the U.S., if not officially in one yet, will follow soon. The global economy remains weak, and central banks are raising rates and withdrawing liquidity from the system. Inflation continues to impact almost everyone everywhere. Companies in tech and banking have announced massive layoffs in recent weeks. Mortgage rates are high, and the housing sector is slowing. Across the developed world and China, debt keeps climbing, and pension systems, in aggregate, remain underfunded and unstable. Prices in agriculture, oil, and most commodities are significantly higher.
How do inflation and higher interest rates not impact consumer spending plans and the overall growth of the economy and corporate profits? An earnings recession is up next.
It will be interesting to watch Powell’s response to yesterday’s inflation print. I believe he’ll stay firm in his inflation fight. The Fed has now hiked rates at six consecutive meetings—something it hasn’t done since 2005. The Fed Funds target rate sits between 3.75% and 4.00%, but they haven’t raised interest rates by 3.75% in a single year since the 1980s. The market anticipates another 50 bps in December and another 50 bps in Q1 2023.
Further, and importantly for risk assets, the Fed is pulling $95 billion in liquidity out of the system per month. QT is the exact opposite of QE, so I can’t see how we’ll get the same bullish market outcome that we’ve experienced over the last dozen years.
Politics in play:
The geopolitical picture is troubling. President Xi Jinping was reappointed as China’s president for a third five-year term, and his first move was to remove the last remaining Western-friendly individual from his government. China is no longer the economic engine of the world; it’s also no longer a low-cost manufacturer. Supply chains are changing. We are reshoring and friend ‘shoring our manufacturing and trade partnerships. Gas and diesel prices are up, so transportation costs, commodity prices, and other input costs must also go up. Those increased costs hurt profits. It’s the same as if you earn $100,000 yearly, for example, and everything you buy now costs more at the grocery store. You have less money left over.
My friend Jonathan Ward wrote a book titled China’s Vision of Victory, which details China’s rise in power over recent decades and its vision of a “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” at the purported cost of American dominance. That vision is now clear to all. A realignment of allegiances is afoot, with China, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia on one side and the West on the other. Take the oil chokehold Russia has on Germany and Europe—what a strategic blunder. The war in Ukraine is tragic and seemingly far from over. Winter is near.
We have a slowing global economy with rising costs. How is this good for global trade? How is this good for profit margins? Prepare for a hard landing ahead.
Powell must win the inflation fight, and he seems postured to do it. When he does, it will reduce inflation (best guess down to 4% or 5%) and increase unemployment (rate TBD), giving Powell the cover to pivot and go back to QE. At that point, I believe we’ll have a risk-on bull market again. But we’re not at that point yet. Keep your defense on the field.
Yesterday’s sharp rally was a combination of pent-up demand for a “Fed pivot,” based on marginally better CPI (inflation) data, and a massive short squeeze. Investors positioned short the market, seeking to profit on stocks falling and quickly unwinding the short positions (if you sell a stock short at $100 per share thinking the price will decline, you hope to buy it back at a lower price—say $70 per share—and make a profit, in this case $30.) With so much money on the bearish side of the bet, any good news can exasperate the move to the upside. Algo’s and other traders can jam in buy orders and force the shorts to rush to cover their bets. That provides more buying, and when it all occurs in a small window of time, you get extreme moves. The better-than-expected CPI data and early hopes for a Fed pivot drove the type of bear market rally we experienced yesterday.
As you’ll see next, investor sentiment reached record “Extreme Pessimism.” In the Dashboard of Indicators (below if you are reading Trade Signals on the web page or clicking through for the full post with the link below if you are reading this in your email inbox), you’ll see it’s been a series of bullish green arrows for weeks.
Note for new readers: Extreme Pessimism is bullish for stocks. Extreme Optimism is bearish for stocks. The idea is to trade in the opposite direction of the majority of the crowd at extreme points, which present infrequently. Here’s a look at the historical data that supports this point. This is not a trade signal. It is more to get a feel for investor behavior/mood/sentiment.
Another measure of investor sentiment is the CBOE Put/Call ratio. It’s a real-time measure of investor betting positions. Put options go up in price when the stock market declines. Call options go up in price when the stock market gains. When more investors own puts than calls, it shows investor sentiment (bullish or bearish). Same rules as above—we’re looking for extreme readings. The following is from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders a few days ago—the largest bearish reading since 2008:
Keep an eye on investor sentiment, moving towards “optimism,” and also on the S&P 500 Index Daily MACD Indicator shown next. The MACD Indicator moved to a short-term buy signal the week of October 10, and it remains in a buy signal today (see the red circle low on the right-hand side of the chart). Not perfect—nothing is—but it’s pretty good.
My two cents is that the bear market bounce will be short-lived. Best guess, looking at the technical evidence, is that the equity market remains in a long-term bear market, with the trading range between ~ 4,100 on the upside and ~ 3,000-3,200 on the downside. I’ll switch my view when the long-term technical trend evidence turns from bear to bull (charts shared if you link through to the full piece). Stay tuned.
For the first time in over three months, the weekly gold indicator moved to a buy signal this week.
The Dashboard of Indicators follows next with more red than green. Note that the high-yield trend moved back to a buy signal today, November 11, 2022.
Not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any security. For information purposes only. Please talk with your advisor about needs, goals, time horizons, and risk tolerances.
Trade Signals — Dashboard of Indicators
(Green is Bullish, Red is Bearish, Orange is signal change is near)
Charts with Explanations
Please note, NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. See important disclosures below.
Equity Market Charts
1. Ned Davis Research CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index – Buy Signal – 50% U.S. Large Cap Equity Exposure
The Ned Davis Research (NDR) CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index measures “market breadth.” Market breadth is simply a measurement of market activity, such as advances and declines, new highs and new lows, advancing and declining volume and price momentum, and Trends based on the number of stocks in uptrends and downtrends. Technicians like “breadth” measurements for two main reasons:
- Breadth thrusts are often present at the start of major bull markets.
- Breadth nearly always weakens before prices do at major peaks.
(Source: Ned Davis Research)
The NDR CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index process measures market breadth by analyzing the overall technical strength of the market across 24 Industry Groups (GICS), as measured by three types of priced-based, industry-level indicators: trend-following, volatility, and mean-reversion. Trend-following primary indicators include momentum and moving average measures that evaluate the rate of change in price in each of the 24 Industry Groups (GICS) over short-term, intermediate, and long-term time frames to assess the current direction of the markets. Mean-reversion indicators are applied in each of the 24 Industry Groups (GICS), measuring the deviation in price movement above and below the historic long-term price trend. Mean-reversion is based on the theory that prices and returns eventually move back toward their historical mean (or average). The model applies these primary and secondary indicators across the S&P 500 industry groupings to ultimately produce trade signals that are either bullish (meaning prices increasing over time) or bearish (meaning prices decreasing over time). The final market breadth composite is the scaled aggregation of these indicators across the S&P 500 industries to determine the breadth composite score (between 0 and 100). A high score means that there is broad positive up-trending participation across the 24 Industry Groups. A low score means many sectors have broken down.
Generally, scores above 50 (bold red dotted line in the middle section of the chart) indicate a strong market environment, and scores below 50 indicate a weak market environment.
The most recent score is 34.32.
If you would like to see the long-term index history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
2. S&P 500 Large Cap Index – 13/34–Week EMA Trend Chart: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities
The process measures the intermediate-term Trend in the S&P 500 Index. A bullish trend is identified when the blue 13-week smoothed moving average (“M.A.”) trend line rises above the 34-week smoothed M.A. trend line. A bearish trend is signaled when the blue line drops below the red line. You can see that this trend process has done a pretty good job at identifying the major cyclical (short-term) bull and bear market trends (note small red and blue arrows). In terms of risk management, a good stop-loss level may be at the point when the 13-week drops below the 34-week EMA with re-entry at the point the 13-week crosses above.
Click here to see “How I think about the 13/34-Week Exponential Moving Average.”
3. Volume Demand vs. Volume Supply: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities
When there are more buyers than sellers, prices move higher. When there are more sellers than buyers, prices decline. Supply and demand dynamics work that way in all things – real estate, oil, stock prices, and all goods in a free market.
The Volume Demand vs. Volume Supply process looks at a smoothed total volume of declining issues versus a smoothed total volume of advancing issues using a broad market equity index. The performance, reflected in the chart below, is better when Vol Demand is better than Vol Supply. More buyers than sellers. This is a relatively slow-moving but important indicator. Source: Ned Davis Research NDR Disclosure Click here for additional information about the indicator.
4. S&P 500 Index Monthly MACD: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities
5. S&P 500 Index Daily MACD Indicator: Buy Signal – Short-term Bullish for U.S. Large Cap Equities
Focus on the MACD moving average lines at the bottom of the chart. Buy signals (green arrows) occur when the black line crosses above the red line. Sell signals (red arrows) occur when the black line crosses below the red line. You can learn more about MACD here.
6. Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed – Indicator Reading = -1 (Sell Signal for Equities)
Current readings are highlighted below. The idea of this indicator is to”Watch out for -2!”
- The indicators that comprise this reading are a combination of NDR’s Big Mo and the 10-Year Treasury yield. It highlights just how important Fed activity is to market performance. Readings range from +2 to -2.
- Bottom line: when both the Trend in interest rates (lower yields) and the Trend in the overall market (the tape) are bullish, the market has historically performed best.
- +2 readings have occurred approximately 11% of the time since 1994, and returns were the best.
- +1 readings have occurred approximately 26% of the time since 1980, and returns were good.
- 0 readings have occurred approximately 31% of the time since 1980, and returns were positive and similar to long-term stock market return averages.
- -1 readings have occurred approximately 26% of the time since 1980, and returns were positive but in the low single digits.
- -2 readings have occurred approximately 6% of the time since 1980, and the returns were worst, similar to long-term bear market average declines.
7. S&P 500 Index vs. 200-Day Moving Average Trend: Sell Signal – Bearish for US Large Cap Equities
Here is how to read the chart:
- Signals occur when the price of the S&P 500 Index crosses above or below the blue 200-day moving average price line.
- Seeking to determine if the primary price trend is up or down.
- Red and green arrows mark several crossing points but not all of them.
- This price trend indicator is not my favorite because many investors use this process, and large traders and programmed machines look to influence market activity around 200-day moving average lines attempting to profit from short-term trades.
- Bottom line: Returns are best when the 200-day M.A. trend line is rising.
8. S&P 500 Index vs. 50-Day & 200-Day Moving Average Cross: Sell Signal – Bearish for US Large Cap Equities
Sell signals occur when the 50-day shorter-term moving average trend line drops below the longer-term 200-day moving average trend line. The idea is to be invested when the primary trend is bullish, and risk protection when the trend is bearish.
9. NASDAQ Composite vs. 50-day & 200-Day Moving Average Trend: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities
Same concept as the above S&P 500 Index 200-day Moving Average Trend chart.
10. Value vs. Growth Factor Model: Favors Value over Growth
NDR requested we not share certain charts. If you want a copy of this chart, I can share it with you one-on-one. Please email me at email@example.com.
The process plots a relative strength ratio comparing the S&P 500-Citigroup Growth Index to the Citigroup Value Index. When the relative strength ratio is rising, growth is outperforming value. When falling, value is outperforming growth. When the model is “neutral,” it indicates there is no clear tendency for outperformance by either Value or Growth. This is a long-term model that tends to produce one trade per year to one trade every few years.
NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: Extreme Pessimism (S/T Bullish for Equities)
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.”
– Warren Buffett
This sentiment indicator is a composite sentiment indicator designed to highlight short- to intermediate-term swings in investor psychology. The evidence, looking at this indicators data back to 12-1-1995, suggests that the crowd (investors in general) are wrong at market extremes. Supporting Buffett’s advice.
- The current daily sentiment reading is 46.3. It was 45.8 last week.
- Buying opportunities occur at “Extreme Pessimism” readings below 57. The percentage gain per annum for the S&P 500 Index was more than 20% per annum looking at data back to 12-1-1995.
- Selling (and/or hedging) opportunities occur at “Extreme Optimism” readings above 66. The percentage gain per annum for the S&P 500 Index was negative looking at data from 12-1-1995.
- Source: Ned Davis Research. (NDR Disclosure; CMG Disclosure.
- If you’d like additional information, please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite: Neutral Optimism (S/T Neutral for Equities)
The current regime is highlighted in yellow below.
- The current daily sentiment reading is 52.22. It was 51.11 last week.
- Buying opportunities occur at “Extreme Pessimism” readings below 41.5. The percentage gain per annum for the S&P 500 Index was more than 20% per annum looking at data back to 1994.
- Selling/trading opportunities occur at “Extreme Optimism” readings above 62.5. The percentage gain per annum for the S&P 500 Index was negative looking at data from 1994. Source: Ned Davis Research. (NDR Disclosure; CMG Disclosure.)
- If you’d like additional information, please email email@example.com.
Fixed Income Trade Signals
The Zweig Bond Model Current Signal: Buy Signal on Bonds
Model Trend Indicators:
- Buy when the Dow 20 price index rises from a bottom by 0.6%. Sell when the index falls from a peak by 0.6%.
- Buy when the Doe 20 price index rises from a bottom by 1.8%. Sell when the index falls from a peak by 1.8%.
- Buy when the Doe 20 price index exceeds its 50day moving average by 1%. Sell when the index crosses below the 50-day by 1%
- Buy when the Fed Funds Target Rate drops by at least 1/2 point. Sell when the rate rises by at least 1/2 point.
- Buy when the yield curve (AAA corporate yield minus the 90-day commercial paper yield) exceeds 0.6. Sell when the yield curve falls below -0.2. Go neutral between -0.2 and 0.6.
Add up the total score. Scores can range from +5 to -5. Positive scores of +1 or higher equal a buy signal. Negative scores of -1 or lower equal a sell signal. Historically, bond market returns are meaningfully better when the model is in a buy signal.
- If you’d like a copy of the chart, please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
- The Model index performance history vs. buying and holding the is available at your request.
- Finally, you can calculate the model on your own – detailed in the upper left section of the chart. How to Track the Zweig Bond Model.
- NDR Disclosure; CMG Disclosure
If you would like to see the long-term index history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at email@example.com
10-Year Treasury Weekly MACD: Sell Signal – Rising Rates: Bearish on Bonds
Extended Duration Treasury ETF: Sell Signal -Rising Rates: Bearish on Bonds
High Yield Bond Market: Buy Signal – High Yield Bond Market
Historically, the high-yield bond market has been an early economic indicator. Watching the trend in price can tell us a great deal about what is happening fundamentally with U.S. businesses.
Some traders like to use a moving average as a price signal, buying when the price moves above a MA line and selling when it moves below. Pictured in the next chart is a 30-day MA line (blue). In the bottom section, I highlight a MACD price momentum indicator. Signals occur when the faster-moving black line crosses above or below the slower-moving red line. It is a measure to determine the intermediate price trend in the high-yield bond market. The popular PIMCO High Yield Bond fund is used as a real-time proxy for what is happening in the high-yield bond market.
Important Note: CMG manages a high-yield bond price trend strategy. The buy and sell signals are based on different trend indicators, and therefore, actual trades may vary from the signal process below. CMG’s process looks at several moving indicators that range from 10-days to 30-days. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Economic and Select Recession Watch Indicators:
- Global Recession – High Probability of a Global Recession
- U.S. Recession – High Probability of U.S. Recession Risk (Next Six Months)
- Inflation Watch – High Inflationary Pressures
- Dr. Copper – Long-term Bearish Sell Signal
- U.S. Dollar Price Trend – Short-term (Daily MACD) Sell Signal
- U.S. Dollar Price Trend – Medium-term (Weekly MACD) Sell Signal
Dr. Copper: Long-term Bearish Sell Signal
“Dr. Copper” is insider lingo used in the commodities markets to explain price trends in copper’s ability to predict the overall health of the economy. When copper prices decline, it may indicate sluggish demand and an imminent economic slowdown. The following chart looks at monthly price data.
U.S. Dollar Price Trend: Short-term (Daily MACD) Sell Signal
U.S. Dollar Price Trend: Medium-term (Weekly MACD) Sell Signal
Select Recession Watch Indicators:
The average decline in the S&P 500 is approximately 37% during recessions. The last two recessions have given us greater than -50% each. I believe, given the fact that we have tripled up on the very same thing that caused the last recession (debt/leverage/Fed policy), the next recession will be equally or more challenging than the last two. Thus, my recession obsession. Following are my favorite recession watch indicators.
Bottom line: We are likely in a global recession.
Global Recession Probability Indicator – High Probability of a Global Recession
- This indicator plots the probability of a global recession based on leading indicators from 35 countries (non-U.S.).
- Ranging on a scale of 0 to 100, The current reading is 98.15, meaning there is a 98.15% probability that we are in a global recession.
- Bottom line: High Global Recession Risk.
The Economy Based on the Stock Market Indicator – High U.S. Recession Risk
- Economic expansion signals (up arrows) are generated when the S&P 500 Index rises by 3.8% above its five-month smoothed moving average line.
- Economic contraction signals are generated when the S&P 500 Index falls by 4.8% below its five-month smoothed moving average line.
- Current signal = Contraction as of 4-3-22
- Note the 77% “Correct Signals” in the top left corner of the chart. This process has done a good job of signaling before recessions. Not perfect, but pretty good.
Recession Probability Based on Employment Trends – Low U.S. Recession Risk
- Expansion signals are generated when the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rises by 0.4% from a low point.
- Contraction signals are generated when the index falls by 4.8% from a high point.
- Current signal = Expansion (SIGNAL ON 7-31-2020)
Credit Conditions – Favorable, Low U.S. Recession Risk
- When lending tightens up “Credit Conditions Unfavorable,” companies have difficulty funding.
- Data Source: NDR’s Credit Conditions Index (B345A)
- Bottom line: Lending conditions are currently favorable.
U.S. Economy vs. Yield Curve (6mo Tsy vs. 10-year Tsy) – Inverted Yield Curve High U.S. Recession Risk
- Inversion happens when the 6-month Treasury Bill yield exceeds the 10-year Treasury Note yield. Many follow the 2-year vs. 10-year Treasury (same idea – when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, something is not well in the system.
- Inversion happened for the third time 2022 in June 2022. 22 of them have resulted in recession within 6-mo’s to 18 months. Source: Commonwealth Financial Network.
- Among bear markets since 1946, the average decline with a recession was 35.8% versus 27.9% on average without a recession. Source
- An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1958, with a “mean lead time” of ~14 months before the recession’s start, according to Ned Davis Research (chart E641).
- Since recessions are only known in hindsight, it is important to have a high probability of knowing in advance. All the bad stuff happens in recessions.
- Bottom line: Signaling high recession risk.
13-week EMA vs. 34-week EMA: Sell Signal
Buy signals occur when the 13-week moving average trendline (blue line) crosses above the 34-week moving average trendline (red line). Sell signals occur when the 13-week moving average trendline (blue line) crosses below the slower-moving 34-week moving average trendline (red line).
Green arrows indicate buy signals, red arrows sell signals.
Intermediate-Term MACD: Buy Signal
Why risk management?
Asset Classes Move Through Periods of Bull and Bear Market Cycles Over Time: This next chart shows the BULL market Secular Trend for Stocks (top section), the direction in Long-Term Government Bond Yields (middle section), and Commodities (bottom section). The best gains are made in Secular Bull market cycles.
Investing is a probability game. Limit downside: In the long run, it’s about the math. This next chart shows the “The Merciless Mathematics of Loss”. A 10% decline only requires an 11% subsequent return to get back to even. A 30% decline requires a 43% subsequent return to get back to even. A 50% decline requires a 100% subsequent return to get back to even. You can read more about it here.
Please email me at Blumenthal@cmgwealth.com with any questions/comments.
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With kind regards,
Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
10 Valley Stream Parkway, Suite 202
Malvern, PA 19355
Advisor/Investor Education Materials and White Papers
Several client educational pieces:
- When Beating the Market Isn’t the Point
- Trend Following Works!
- Correlation, Diversification and Investment Success
- The Merciless Math of Loss (this is about how compound interest works for you and significant loss against you)
Ned Davis Research:
For years, I have subscribed to Ned Davis Research. They are an independent research firm. Their clients are institutional (professional) investor clients like CMG. They are one of the most respected research firms in the business.
They offer several levels of subscription. You can contact them directly at Ned Davis Research at 617-279-4878 to learn more. Please know that neither I nor CMG are compensated in any form. I’m just a big fan of their research and their way of thinking. As a side, Ned Davis authored one of my favorite books, Being Right or Making Money. A great book full of sound, practical advice.
Trade Signals History:
Trade Signals started after a colleague asked me if I could share my thoughts (trade signals) with him. Many years ago, I found that putting pen to paper helped me in my investment management process, and I hope that this research is of value to you in your investment process.
Every week, I share with you research I find valuable. No one indicator is perfect, but we believe risk can be assessed and should be managed. Some of this research helps to shape our thinking around risk management and it helps us think about how we might size various risks within the construct of a total portfolio. For example, overweight or underweight equities/fixed income and how much one should consider allocating to tactical/liquid alternative exposures (such as managed futures, global macro, and long/short equity). When and what to hedge? Shorten or lengthen bond maturity exposure? We believe such risks can be managed and, to us, broad portfolio diversification is important. If you’d like to talk to us about how we use some of these indicators within our various investment strategies, please email me or email our sales team.
From an investment management perspective, I’ve followed, managed, and written about trend following and investor sentiment for many years. I find that reviewing various sentiment, Trend, and other historically valuable rules-based indicators each week helps me to stay balanced and disciplined in allocating to the various risk sets that are included within a broadly diversified total portfolio solution.
My objective is to position in line with the equity and fixed income market’s primary trends. I believe risk management is paramount in a long-term investment process. When to hedge, when to become more aggressive, etc.
For hedging, I favor a collared option approach (writing out-of-the-money covered calls and buying out-of-the-money put options) as a relatively inexpensive way to risk protect your long-term focused equity portfolio exposure. Also, consider buying deep out-of-the-money put options for risk protection.
Please note the comments at the bottom of this Trade Signals discussing a collared option strategy to hedge equity exposure using investor sentiment extremes as a guide to risk management. Go to www.cboe.com to learn more. Hire an experienced advisor to help you. Never write naked option positions. There are a handful of ETF’s that offer market exposure with downside hedging with options. We do not offer options strategies at CMG. Please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org if you’d like to learn more.
Visit http://www.theoptionsguide.com/the-collar-strategy.aspx for more information.
A diversified investment portfolio is designed to meet pre-defined investment goals. It is often hard to stay the course when stress presents itself. That is when many investors tend to make the biggest mistakes. Diversification means that not all investments perform at the same time. For example, managed futures and long/short funds have underperformed the last several years but are outperforming recently. We’d all like to be in the best-performing areas all the time, but that is just not possible.
Major market events tend to present one or two times per decade. It is for this reason that a longer-term view can provide a useful perspective. We know that many investors incorrectly sold out of the markets during the tech bubble in 2000-2002 and again with record selling at the height of the 2008 great financial crisis. No one knows exactly how the current distress will play out.
What you can do is build a portfolio that is diversified across many risk factors and market environments. You can identify periods in time to become more or less aggressively positioned (overweight when valuations are cheap and underweight when they are expensive). You can manage risk not only by the collections of Stocks, ETFs, and funds selected but also by how you combine them together. Many credible academic studies show diversification brings meaningful improvement to portfolios and you can create a plan designed to achieve a return objective suitable for you risk level, time horizon needs, and goals.
I view the world of investing through a lens of risk and reward. Ultimately, it is far more important to minimize losses than to capture the best gains. Over time, it’s really about understanding the power of compound interest. To this end, I wrote a paper entitled, The Merciless Math of Loss.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
Investing involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. or any of its related entities (collectively, “CMG”) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. No portion of the content should be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. References to specific securities, investment programs or funds are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Portfolio positions are subject to change at any time without notice. Please contact your CMG representative if you have any questions about your account.
Certain portions of the content may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, opinions and/or recommendations of CMG (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current recommendations or opinions. Derivatives and options strategies are not suitable for every investor, may involve a high degree of risk, and may be appropriate investments only for sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained herein serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CMG or the professional advisors of your choosing. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. CMG is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.
This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any CMG client from any specific funds or securities. Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends. The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, has not been independently verified, and does not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client. CMG clients may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods.
The Ned Davis Research CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index is not sponsored by S&P Dow Jones Indices or its affiliates or third party licensors (collectively, “S&P Dow Jones Indices”). S&P Dow Jones Indices will not be liable for any errors or omissions in calculating the Ned Davis Research CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index. “Calculated by S&P Dow Jones Indices” and the related stylized mark(s) are service marks of S&P Dow Jones Indices. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC.
NOT FDIC INSURED. MAY LOSE VALUE. NO BANK GUARANTEE.
HYPOTHETICAL PRESENTATIONS: To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including: (1) the model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using client assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight; (2) back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the advisor’s use of the model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage client assets; and, (3) CMG’s clients may have experienced investment results during the corresponding time periods that were materially different from those portrayed in the model. Please Also Note: Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index (e.g., S&P 500 Total Return or Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. 5000 Total Market IndexSM) is also disclosed. For example, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. S&P Dow Jones chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The historical performance results of the S&P (and those of or all indices) and the model results do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, nor the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing indicated historical performance results. For example, the deduction combined annual advisory and transaction fees of 1.00% over a 10-year period would decrease a 10% gross return to an 8.9% net return. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet, his/her investment objective(s). A corresponding description of the other comparative indices, are available from CMG upon request. It should not be assumed that any CMG holdings will correspond directly to any such comparative index. The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes. CMG portfolios may be more or less volatile than the reflective indices and/or models.In the event that there has been a change in an individual’s investment objective or financial situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with his/her investment professionals.