May 10, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Hyperinflations, Hysteria, and False Memories - James Montier, GMO “To say that the printing of money by central banks to finance government deficits creates hyperinflations is far too simplistic (bordering on the simple-minded). Hyperinflation is not purely [...]Read More >
Hyperinflations, Hysteria & False Memories – J. Montier
GMO White Paper, February 2013 - Excerpt: To say that the printing of money by central banks to finance government deficits creates hyperinflations is far too simplistic (bordering on the simple-minded). Hyperinflation is not purely a monetary phenomenon. To claim that is to miss the root causes [...]Read More >
WSJ Live – May 9: How Much is the Market Really Worth?
Major indexes are striking nearly daily record highs. But with earnings growth slowing sharply, are stocks overvalued? Steve Blumenthal joins MoneyBeat to discuss his tactically managed, risk mitigated approach to investing. Or watch it here on WSJ Live. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Charts & My “Two Cents”
S&P 500 Index 1626 By Steve Blumenthal May 8, 2013 Sentiment Update – Charts and my “two cents” Investor Sentiment remains in the Extreme Optimism zone. I continue to favor inexpensive hedges to risk protect long equity market exposure (i.e. covered calls and out of the money put [...]Read More >
The Blumenthal Viewpoint: “Pretty Woman”
May 2, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal The taxi pulled up to the Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Beverly Hills, California and the driver said, “You know, this was the hotel they used in the movie "Pretty Woman" ”. Richard Gere was the wealthy Private Equity guy and Julia Roberts was the pretty woman. Gere [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: May 1, 2013
S&P 500 Index 1597 By Steve Blumenthal May 1, 2013 Sentiment Update – Charts and brief comment Investment Sentiment charts 4-30-2013: No change from comments made last week. Following are this week’s sentiment charts: Chart 1. NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll – Neutral (Bearish) – I REMAIN [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Sentiment Update, Valuation & Sell in May
S&P 500 Index 1578 By Steve Blumenthal April 24, 2013 Sentiment Update, Valuation and Sell in May Investment Sentiment charts 4-23-2013: The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is for short-term traders and is calculated weekly. It peaked in mid-March at an extreme optimism reading of 70.5% and [...]Read More >
CMG 2013 Q1 Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2013 first quarter and year-to-date net performance information for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends [...]Read More >
Steve in the WSJ on ‘why the 60/40 model may no longer work’
Investors are turning away from Modern Portfolio Theory's 60/40 asset allocation model as low bond yields and low stock dividends force them to reexamine this time-honored strategy. Steve told reporter Charles Passy that there is a strategy that exists today to replace 60/40 that is accessible to [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Engineering Returns & Risks
April 19, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal On portfolio construction – Engineering Targeted Returns and Risks – Ray Dalio explains how to structure a portfolio that targets a 10% return with a 10-12% risk “Most investors have backed into a mix dominated by betas, especially equities. Because the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: April 17, 2013
S&P 500 Index 1550 By Steve Blumenthal April 17, 2013 Sentiment Update and Thoughts on the Bond Market Investment Sentiment charts 4-16-2013: Chart 1. NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite. Neutral – I REMAIN RISK OFF (hedge). Chart 2. NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll – Just crossed [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Looking for “what is”
April 12, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal “A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be.” — Albert Einstein (1879-1955) I smiled when I turned on the Masters Championship today. It was two years ago this weekend that I snuggled next to my father on his hospital bed. Some of [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Thoughts on the Bond Market
S&P 500 Index 1585 By Steve Blumenthal April 10, 2013 Sentiment Update and Thoughts on the Bond Market Investment Sentiment charts 4-9-2013: Chart 1. NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite. Neutral – I REMAIN RISK OFF (hedge). Chart 2. NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll – Extreme [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Thoughts on Cyprus & France
April 4, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal With the S&P 500 Index reaching a new high, excitement builds and a focus on risk sinks slowly beneath the surface. I found the following "Then and Now" and "Total Debt" charts enlightening and a reminder that the world remains uniquely out of balance. Oh, [...]Read More >
The Absolute Return Letter – April 2013
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