S&P 500 Index 1687 By Steve Blumenthal August 7, 2013 Following are the most recent Investor Sentiment and Cyclical Trend charts. Investor Sentiment remains in the Extreme Optimism or “Bearish” zone. As a quick aside, years ago I was the elected Chairman of a non-profit industry [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Detroit, Interest Rates & Debt
August 2, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Like the Wile E. Coyote, we have raced ahead and are finding ourselves out over the cliff. Slower growth, manipulated GDP, underfunded pensions and unprecedented global currency manipulation…we are far from normal conditions – too much debt remains the major [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Not Wise – Not Appropriate
S&P 500 Index 1685 By Steve Blumenthal July 31, 2013 I met Rob Arnott several years ago at John Mauldin’s 60th birthday party and have been a big fan since. Yesterday I visited with Rob at the Four Seasons Hotel in Philadelphia. He was presenting his thoughts on the markets, forward [...]Read More >
CMG Q2 2013 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2013 second quarter and year-to-date net performance information for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 212 Years of Price Momentum
July 26, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Sometimes I sit back and reflect on just how grateful I am to be in this business. Challenging? Yes, but very intellectually stimulating. I am extremely excited today after a productive meeting focusing on how to better manage fixed income portfolio exposure. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Extreme Optimism
S&P 500 Index 1682 By Steve Blumenthal July 24, 2013 Investor Sentiment as measured by the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll (Chart 1) has moved higher into Extreme Optimism (Bearish). The average sentiment extreme peak since 1995 is 68% bullish. The current level is 69.5%. You can see in Chart [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Not Normal
July 19, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal I have been feeling more and more uneasy; much like I did in 2007 when I got my arms around sub-prime mortgages and those packaged pools of AAA rated sub-prime junk. The liquidity it provided fueled an inflating real estate bubble. “The real estate market had [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Extreme Optimism Once Again
S&P 500 Index 1682 By Steve Blumenthal July 17, 2013 Investor Sentiment as measured by the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll (Chart 1) has moved back into the Extreme Optimism (Bearish) zone. I recommend re-establishing hedges for risk management purposes but continue to note that the cyclical bull [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Sentiment, Trend and Forward Expected Returns
S&P 500 Index 1656 By Steve Blumenthal July 10, 2013 Investor Sentiment continues to support the bullish market view (Extreme Pessimism was touched last week and I became more constructive with the S&P 500 at 1609). I remain modestly bullish from a trading and risk management [...]Read More >
On My Radar: France, Germany and Margin Debt
July 5, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Money will move to where it is treated best. One needs to have a global view and understand that we are deeply interconnected. The grand experiment moves forward and we are not alone in the chemistry lab. Europe, Japan, China and the U.S. are all printing on [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Extreme Pessimism Reached
S&P 500 Index 1605 By Steve Blumenthal July 3, 2013 Investor Sentiment dropped into the Extreme Pessimism zone over the past week and has since moved back into the Neutral zone. This is a statistically positive event as evidenced by the 15.1% gain/annum. There is good support at 1560 on [...]Read More >
Steve on Fox Business: After the Bell
Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com Steve joined David Asman and Liz Claman on After the Bell on Friday, June 28 to talk about modernizing portfolio allocations in today's investment world. He suggests a shift from the traditional 60/40 portfolio. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: June 28, 2013
June 28, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal This week, I discuss two relevant thoughts and first share a few thoughts on the recent spike in interest rates: Total Credit Market Debt is still too high The Tipping Point The big headwind to growth remains debt, deficits and entitlements. At the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Nearing Extreme Pessimism
S&P 500 Index 1602 By Steve Blumenthal June 26, 2013 Investor Sentiment continues to move lower within the Neutral zone and is very close to moving into the Extreme Pessimism (Bullish) zone. Following are the most recent Investor Sentiment charts, reflecting the current cyclical bullish [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Fisher & Volcker
June 21, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal This week, I discuss four relevant thoughts: Fisher and Volcker – Some common sense exists China - Japanese-style deflation Italian Showdown with Germany over Euro is Near One more to celebrate – Stephen Mittel Dallas Fed President Richard [...]Read More >
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