S&P 500 Index 1725 By Steve Blumenthal September 18, 2013 Trade Signals is designed to help you navigate the risks and rewards of the stock market. I believe a less certain investment outlook is ahead due to unmanageable debt, entitlements and unprecedented central bank manipulation. Have [...]Read More >
On My Radar: “You Can’t Handle the Truth!”
September 13, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Looking for a feel-good financial read this weekend? I highly recommend Gary Shilling’s Advantage America that John Mauldin highlighted in his most recent Outside the Box. Speaking of Mauldin, he and I spoke in Chicago at the Trinity Financial Investor [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Investor Sentiment Remains Favorable
S&P 500 Index 1686 By Steve Blumenthal September 11, 2013 Trade Signals is designed to help you navigate the risks and rewards of the stock market. I believe a less certain investment outlook is ahead due to unmanageable debt, entitlements and unprecedented central bank manipulation. Have [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Psychological Blind Spots
September 6, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal This week, I share the following relevant research: Seventh Inning Stretch – PIMCO’s Bill Gross Peak Earnings Equals Peak Valuations – a telling chart The Behavior Gap - Blumenthal Viewpoint How to Make Risk Your Friend – Deepak Chopra, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: September 4, 2013
S&P 500 Index 1653 By Steve Blumenthal September 4, 2013 Starting this week, we will provide access to Trade Signals directly on our website, Twitter and LinkedIn. Simply, we want to be mindful of the number of emails you receive from us. Trade Signals will continue to be posted at the [...]Read More >
Financial Advisor IQ – It’s Time to Enhance Modern Portfolio Theory
By Steve Blumenthal August 29, 2013 Following is an excerpt from the piece that highlights the issues MPT is facing today: The conversation you should have with your clients is not that modern portfolio theory (MPT) is wrong, rather that it’s time to question whether 60/40 remains the best [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Time is Running Short
By Steve Blumenthal August 29, 2013 If you are traditional 60/40, change what you are doing. Build in risk protection, rethink how you are investing in bonds and add meaningful exposure to Tactical Strategies, unconstrained mutual funds and other highly liquid non-correlating investment [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Bearish Sentiment Extreme (Bullish)
S&P 500 Index 1630 By Steve Blumenthal August 28, 2013 Included in this week’s update: • Sentiment Charts – Pessimism is now extreme (short-term bullish for the market) • Cyclical Bull Market Charts – The market remains in a cyclical bull market trend • A look at PE valuations – The [...]Read More >
The Blumenthal Viewpoint: Behavior Gap
August 23, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal An advisor client called the other day and wanted to talk about investor behavior. Broadly diversified portfolios will always underperform the top performing asset classes at any given time. He wanted to know how I might advise a client who is comparing his [...]Read More >
Steve in the WSJ
August 21, 2013: "[Retail] investors are behaviorally doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing," said Steve Blumenthal, whose advisory firm manages $550 million for investment advisers and retail clients. "Emerging markets have perhaps the best valuation level of any of the markets, but [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: It’s Getting Interesting
S&P 500 Index 1642 By Steve Blumenthal August 21, 2013 Included in this week’s update: Sentiment Charts – working off excessive optimism Cyclical Bull Market Charts – S&P 500 Index level 1600 looks important Duration of Cyclical Bull and Cyclical Bear Chart – average length [...]Read More >
The Blumenthal Viewpoint: Stonewalled
July 12, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Stonewall Golf Club – hole 18 Stonewalled – What’s the average investor do? We walked off the 18th green and Chuck, my good friend and long-time caddie, says, “Steve, can I ask you a question about my wife’s 401k? What should I do?” I sensed the [...]Read More >
The Blumenthal Viewpoint: Bright Future, Weak Economy
August 16, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Bright Future “Dad, though this card is small, it was the only message that I could find that even came close to how I’ve felt about this summer. Thank you – for this entire summer. Thank you for encouraging me to do something I didn’t think I was able to [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: This Cyclical Bull is Old
S&P 500 Index 1690 By Steve Blumenthal August 14, 2013 I did some digging into the data around past cyclical bull periods and thought I’d share some of what I learned with you: The current cyclical bull move began in March of 2009 and is now four years and five months old. This makes [...]Read More >
On My Radar: He’s Not Your Dad
August 9, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal (from the 361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing) Every quarter for as long as I can remember, I anxiously await Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly investment letter. Jeremy’s firm manages more than $100 billion. I remember how he stuck to his disciplined process in [...]Read More >
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