S&P 500 Index 1868 By Steve Blumenthal March 12, 2014 We’ve been doing some additional work around the risk on and risk off buy and sell indicators that Big Mo generates. I share some of that data below (under the Big Mo chart). Take a look. Included in this week’s update (the usual [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Focus on the Curve Ahead
March 7, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal On Thursday I spoke at the NWA Financial Fitness Forum sponsored by Mach-1 Financial Group in Northwest Arkansas. The keynote for the event was former Governor Mike Huckabee. He spoke about the mess in Washington (of course) and his deep belief that they have [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: S&P 500 Over/Under Valuation Targets
S&P 500 Index 1874 By Steve Blumenthal March 5, 2014 Included in this week’s update (the usual weekly charts): S&P 500 Index Median PE Overvalued and Undervalued Price Targets (as of February 28, 2014) Sentiment Charts – Crowd Sentiment is Extremely Optimistic: Hedge Cyclical [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Quant’s Eye View
February 28, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal If the big bubble is in the bond market, as I believe, we need to keep a close eye on the direction of interest rates. I have my own long-term fundamental views towards higher rates (Fed QE driven), but the question is when. Patience is required. As a [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Newsletters Wrong at Extremes
S&P 500 Index 1846 By Steve Blumenthal February 26, 2014 Investor Sentiment has quickly moved back to the Extreme Optimism zone (as measured by the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll) and the S&P 500 Index is challenging the all time price high. We are in an overbought, over believed and [...]Read More >
WSJ Live: Markets Consider Fed’s Interest-Rate Increase
February 20, 2014 Steve joined Paul Vigna on WSJ Live's Money Beat to discuss the Fed's talks of potentially moving up the timeline for raising interest rates. What can investors do? Check out the video. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
February 21, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal One of the upcoming challenges for the Fed, aside from tapering, will be the decision to raise interest rates. Keep in mind that the equity rally we have experienced has been largely fueled by the Fed (click here for a chart) and it is the end of this [...]Read More >
Steve on TheStreet.com
"Don't Trust the Traditional 60/40 Split" Steve joined Gregg Greenberg at TheStreet.com once again for a discussion on the overvaluation of the market after last year's rally and how to optimize a portfolio allocation despite these ever-changing market conditions. To see the interview on [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Neutral Sentiment
S&P 500 Index 1828 By Steve Blumenthal February 19, 2014 Trade Signals is a weekly piece that looks at investor sentiment and identifies levels of both extreme optimism and extreme pessimism. Those extremes may provide a path towards a proactive risk management process. I favor [...]Read More >
The Blumenthal Viewpoint: Understanding Tactical Investment Strategies
February 14, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” - Benjamin Graham Just what are tactical investment strategies and where might they fit into your clients’ portfolios? A few months ago, I was on Bloomberg [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Yellen for Now
S&P 500 Index 1826 By Steve Blumenthal February 12, 2014 Last week, short-term investor sentiment as measured by the NDR Daily Sentiment Poll reached the Extremely Pessimistic zone (a Bullish signal) while the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll (a somewhat slower measure of sentiment) was nearing [...]Read More >
WSJ: Fear of Market Risk Ebbs Post-Crisis
February 7, 2014 By Daisy Maxey Excerpt: Many high-net-worth investors see recent stock declines as a buying opportunity thanks to lessons learned from the market implosion of 2008-2009. The financial crisis left wealthy investors with a better understanding of risk and of the importance of [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Problem is Debt
February 7, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal What trips the wire? The bubble is in the bond market and it just might be the biggest bubble of them all. The headlock we find ourselves in is caused by the massive weight of debt. We owe too much, we have promised too much and are not making enough. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Pessimism Rising
S&P 500 Index 1755 By Steve Blumenthal February 5, 2014 Fear is clearly rising and investor sentiment is moving from excessive optimism toward excessive pessimism. I share this Trade Signals with you today via email. Included are a few extra charts that look at what I believe are logical [...]Read More >
On My Radar: More Juice Left in the Book
January 31, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” – Warren Buffett So where are we today? I thought about the above quote as I listened to Dr. Jeremy [...]Read More >
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