May 2, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Valuations are flashing red. Driven higher by QE, the markets have exceeded (as measured by John Hussman) the prior bubble records achieved in 2000 and 2007. Brace yourself (and your portfolios). This doesn't mean markets can't move higher; central banks have [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Expecting a Bumpy May to October
S&P 500 Index 1879 By Steve Blumenthal April 30, 2014 Investment sentiment is unusually mixed. My favorite sentiment indicator is the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll (based on weekly data). It continues to remain neutral (neither excessively optimistic nor excessively pessimistic). You’ll see [...]Read More >
CMG Q1 2014 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2014 first quarter net performance information for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Tightrope Walker With No Net
April 25, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “The Fed’s manipulations have left it in the position of a tightrope walker with no net; one who must exert all his energy in a concentrated effort just to keep moving forward, even as the slightest slip or unexpected gust could cause a catastrophic end to the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Aged Bull Trend
S&P 500 Index 1875 By Steve Blumenthal April 23, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals are the usual weekly sentiment and cyclical trend charts along with an update on the Zweig Bond Model: Investor Sentiment: Crowd Sentiment Poll Neutral, Daily Trading Sentiment Composite Extreme [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Mixed Investor Sentiment
Trade Signals – Mixed Investor Sentiment S&P 500 Index 1843 By Steve Blumenthal April 16, 2014 Sentiment has become more constructive. The Daily Trading Sentiment Composite is back in the Extreme Pessimism (Bullish) zone supporting a further rally. The cyclical trend as measured by Big [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Dare To Be Great
April 11, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal The Fed owns 30% of all mortgage backed securities and nearly 25% of all the Treasury bonds. Wow! Unimaginable, but real. I find myself frequently visiting the Fed’s website. I particularly like Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. As a former fund [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Seasonal Tendencies
S&P 500 Index 1852 By Steve Blumenthal April 9, 2014 I was pretty aggressive with my call to hedge in last week’s Trade Signals (What Was I Thinking). That view remains unchanged. While the equity markets cyclical trend remains bullish, the seasonal patterns are concerning and with [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Zweig’s Tactical Bond Model
Recent pieces have focused on the likely path to higher interest rates. This is a major problem for all bond investors, especially if you have 40% or more allocated to bonds. The vast majority of investors own bonds. I believe the bond market is experiencing a long-term secular bull peak. With [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: What Was I Thinking
S&P 500 Index 1885 By Steve Blumenthal April 2, 2014 If you have yet to put some form of portfolio protection in place, I believe it wise to have it in place by month end. I’m referring specifically to your long-term equity portfolio exposure (your stocks for the long run). I do not [...]Read More >
The Blumenthal Viewpoint: An Optimist Sees Opportunity
March 28, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” Winston Churchill. Last night I had the absolute pleasure of seeing NY Times columnist Adam Bryant, speak at my stepson’s school. Bryant [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: When the Fed Takes the Punch Bowl Away
S&P 500 Index 1865 By Steve Blumenthal March 26, 2014 We are nearing the end of QE. In last week’s On My Radar titled, The Likely Path to Higher Rates, I posted a great chart that suggests the Fed will begin hiking rates sooner and/or more aggressively than previously expected. One of [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Likely Path to Higher Rates!
March 21, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal It was a big week for Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Loved her transparency. Can’t you just feel the collective investment world sitting on the edge of its seat? We are all watching with concern and for good reason. So with interest rates front and center, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Sentiment, Trend & Fed Charts
S&P 500 Index 1860 By Steve Blumenthal March 19, 2014 Surprisingly, given the global stress, sentiment remains at extreme optimism. The cyclical bull market trend continues to be the dominant trend and the story supporting the market remains Fed policy (and global central bank liquidity). [...]Read More >
On My Radar: One Billion Dollars!
March 14, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal It sure feels like we are moving towards a point of crisis. The number two economy in the world is in serious decline; their customers' economies (mostly the U.S. and Europe) have slowed. The great boom in China appears to be over. Prime the printing presses [...]Read More >
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