S&P 500 Index 1958 By Steve Blumenthal June 25, 2014 Big Mo remains bullish and the Zweig Bond Model remains on a bullish buy signal for bonds. Both trends remain positive. I believe the inherent level of risk is high as indicated in the above Risk Meter because both valuations [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Bizarro World
June 20, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "The concept behind investor sentiment is that the stock market tends to be a manifestation of group psychology in motion. Highs tend to coincide with extreme group enthusiasm and lows coincide with excessive group fear. At extremes in opinion, the stock market [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Extreme Sentiment Across the Board
S&P 500 Index 1946 By Steve Blumenthal June 18, 2014 Retail investor sentiment has caught up with other sentiment indicators. Understandably nervous after two 50% declines (2002 and 2008/09), individual investors are feeling optimistic. For investors last to get back into the game - their [...]Read More >
On My Radar: World Cup
June 13, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Believe in yourself. Have faith in your abilities! Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy." - Norman Vincent Peale When I was young, I was crazy about soccer. My dad, like many, was a baseball, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Extreme Bullish Investor Sentiment
S&P 500 Index 1944 By Steve Blumenthal June 11, 2014 I highlight the following chart this week showing how much stocks are owned as a percentage of total household financial assets. The idea is to see if we can get a sense for just how optimistic or pessimistic individual investors are [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Intelligent Downside Protection
June 6, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal One of the more challenging debates in our business is tied to the proper use of P/E (price/earnings) as a valuation measure. One expert says P/Es are low, pointing to forward earnings estimates. The other says P/Es are high. Buy at bargain prices or overpay? [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Temperature Rising
S&P 500 Index 1927 By Steve Blumenthal June 4, 2014 I favor a probability-based view towards risk. On Friday, I’ll update the most recent (updated through May month-end) valuation charts and share some data on inflation, current investor mutual fund/ETF holdings and margin debt. Today, [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Antifragile
May 30, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile: just as a parent who overly cocoons a child prepares that offspring poorly to function in the wider world, so policy makers intent on cushioning the private sector from every shock in the economic cycle are doing the overall system a [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Bear Watch Report
S&P 500 Index 1913 By Steve Blumenthal May 28, 2014 There are a number of ways one can measure the equity markets’ primary trend. My favorite cyclical bull/bear market trend chart is NDR’s Big Mo. As you’ll see in the most recent chart below, Big Mo remains constructive on the market. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Stumble Upon the Truth & Act
May 23, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Once in a while you will stumble upon the truth but most of us manage to pick ourselves up and hurry along as if nothing had happened." - Winston Churchill Trading high yield bonds for nearly 24 years has taught me a thing or two about opportunity and risk. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Interest Rate Risk
S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal May 21, 2014 The cyclical trend for both stocks and bonds remains bullish. Sentiment is once again mixed with short-term sentiment back in the Extreme Pessimism zone (a bullish reading) while my favorite sentiment indicator remains neutral. I’ve [...]Read More >
On My Radar: So Good, It’s Bad
May 16, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Become a master observer. Have the willingness to look at things that nobody else has bothered to look at. Identify points of meaning. We learn when we observe.” Peyton Manning Famed quarterback Peyton Manning presented this morning at the Envestnet 2014 [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Sentiment, Trend and Bonds
S&P 500 Index 1893 By Steve Blumenthal May 14, 2014 I’ve updated the charts and please note that the commentary remains largely unchanged from last week’s post. Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Investor Sentiment: Crowd Sentiment Poll is Nearing Extreme Optimism Cyclical [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Living in the Present
May 9, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Man. Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health. And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present: the result being that he does not live in the present or the future: [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: The Weight of Evidence
S&P 500 Index 1873 By Steve Blumenthal May 7, 2014 Since 1950, nearly all of the S&P 500’s gains have come from October 31 through April 30; last year we saw 10% added in that time frame. We have just entered the “Sell In May And Go Away” period. The question is, should one follow [...]Read More >
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