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On My Radar: I See Opportunity

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January 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I often disdain economic forecasts as a stock market indicator. First, the consensus forecasts of economics are often wrong, and more importantly, the stock market tends to lead the economy, so it is like trying to put the cart in front of the horse.” Ned [...]Read More >

On My Radar – Global Deflation

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January 16, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “All I can do is advise you on what has happened before. Once one country goes, capital will look around and turn on whoever they think is next. Eventually, this will move from one to the next. The dollar will be the last man standing. After that, we are [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Margin Debt, Sentiment and Liquidity

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S&P 500 Index 2010 By Steve Blumenthal January 14, 2014 Today, along with the updated cyclical trend and sentiment charts, let’s take a look at margin debt and liquidity. You’ll see that margin debt is at a record high and liquidity is very low - not a favorable combination. However, the [...]Read More >

How I Think About Investor Sentiment

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NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: Neutral (Neutral for Stocks)   If you are a new reader, the gray area highlights the historical market performance when Investor Sentiment, as measured by Ned Davis Research, moves into the Extreme Optimism (Bearish) Zone (above the dotted black line or a reading [...]Read More >

On My Radar: It’s All About That Fed – Again

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January 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "We shouldn't be raising rates before 2016." Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Evans, a voting member on the central bank's policymaking committee, told CNBC this week. The market responded favorably. Evans said he's hopeful that inflation will pick up. [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Over Optimistic Correction on Schedule

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S&P 500 Index 2026 By Steve Blumenthal January 7, 2015 The last several Investor Sentiment extremes (too much optimism) have done a pretty good job at identifying market correction turning points. After peaking at the second highest reading since late 2004, the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is [...]Read More >

How I think about the 13/34-Week Exponential Moving Average

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  13/34-Week EMA Trend Chart: Cyclical Bullish Trend for Stocks Remains Following is a look at the S&P 500 index 13-Week (blue line) vs. 34-Week (red line). Bull and Bear market cycles are clearly defined. Bullish trend when blue line is above red line. EMA or exponential moving [...]Read More >

Envestnet | PMC: The Tactics on Tactical Strategies

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In this PMC Vantage Point video, Brooks Friederich, Director, Fund Strategist Portfolios at Envestnet, discusses "The Tactics on Tactical Strategies".  Learn about the different types of tactical strategies, how to use them within client portfolios, and how to set proper performance expectations. [...]Read More >

On My Radar: 2015 Upside and Downside Targets For the S&P 500

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January 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Each month, I like to look at the market’s valuation to get a sense of potential upside reward relative to downside risk. Today, let’s look at three valuation measures, one based on reported earnings through 12-31-2014, one based on operating revenue, and the [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Commodity Outlook – All Cycles Eventually End

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December 26, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal All cycles eventually come to an end.  In the case of commodity bulls, 16 years is the average duration.  The longest lasted 24 years (1896–1920), the shortest lasted 8 years (1972–1980), and the most recent secular bull ended in 2011 after 12 years. What [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Weight of Evidence Supports Aged Bull Market

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S&P 500 Index 2082 By Steve Blumenthal December 24, 2014 The weight of evidence continues to support the aged cyclical bull market. Click here for my recently published Forbes article discussing the probabilities for 2015. Risk is high and the equity market is expensive. Let’s keep a [...]Read More >