February 27, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal This past week Germany sold five-year debt at a negative yield for the first time in history. Read, wash, rinse and repeat. A negative yield for the first time in history. The problem globally is unmanageable debt. An investor gets to pay Germany money for [...]Read More >
Creative Destruction And Managing The Risk of Global Debt – Forbes
2/24/2015 @ 6:27PM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play.” - Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator There has been a lot of debate on [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Sentiment Turns Negative, Trend Remains Bullish
S&P 500 Index 2115 By Steve Blumenthal February 25, 2014 Trend evidence remains favorable yet sentiment has climbed back to Extreme Optimism. Such readings are short-term bearish for the market. This week, along with the usual trend and sentiment charts, I include a special chart that [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The $9 Trillion Dollar Question
February 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I think the government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem and very often makes the problem worse.” - Milton Friedman A close friend bought a $1 million condo but he did something very unusual, he borrowed the mortgage loan in Yen instead [...]Read More >
McKinsey Global Institutue: Debt And (Not Much) Deleveraging
Debt And (Not Much) Deleveraging February 2015 After the 2008 financial crisis and the longest and deepest global recession since World War II, it was widely expected that the world’s economies would deleverage. It has not happened. Instead, debt continues to grow in nearly all countries, in [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – New All Time High, Trend Evidence Remains Positive
S&P 500 Index 2100 By Steve Blumenthal February 18, 2014 Every once in a while I post a chart on “margin debt”. Like available cash, margin debt can be used to buy stocks. Such demand can fuel stock prices higher. Problems tend to occur when you reach extreme. Evidence suggests we have [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction
February 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play” Jesse Livermore – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator There has been a lot of debate on the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Not Greedy Not Fearful, Trend Evidence Positive
S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal February 11, 2014 I came across the following special chart this week. It speaks directly to the investor behavior and how it tends to be wrong (behaviorally buy and selling at the wrong times). Often quoted Warren Buffett says, “Be fearful when [...]Read More >
CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy Webinar
On February 11, Mike Sciortino and Michael Hee hosted a webinar discussing the CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy and why it makes sense to position it in your clients' portfolios today. The webinar covers the strategy overview and portfolio construction process followed by a Q & A session. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Spoonful of Sugar
February 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal In ev'ry job that must be done There is an element of fun You find the fun and snap! The job's a game And ev'ry task you undertake Becomes a piece of cake A lark! A spree! It's very clear to see that A Spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down The [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Extreme Pessimism (ST Bullish for Stocks), Trend Positive
S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal February 4, 2014 My college soccer coach used to always teach us that “soccer is a game of opposites”. Fake left to move right. That part everyone knows. Where it got complicated (and frustrating for a coach) was tactical positioning in response to [...]Read More >
Blumenthal On Bloomberg ETF Report
Feb 4, 2015 Bloomberg Radio’s Catherine Cowdery interviewed CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. CEO Steve Blumenthal last week at the Inside ETFs Conference in Hollywood, Florida. In the interview, Steve discusses his firm's current fixed income allocation and industry groups that appear at the [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Go Ahead, Angela, Make My Day
January 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal I spend a great deal of time writing about valuations, probable future returns (near record lows today), portfolio construction and risk management. Reflecting on four days of non-stop sessions, media interviews and meetings at the Inside ETFs Annual [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Pessimism Remains, Trend Still Positive
S&P 500 Index 2009 By Steve Blumenthal January 28, 2014 The most recent trend and sentiment evidence is updated below. The trend remains positive for both equities and fixed income securities. Included in this week's Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Cyclical [...]Read More >
CMG Q4 2014 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2014 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and [...]Read More >
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