November 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “U.S. interest rates are already zero. Japanese interest rates are zero also. European interest rates are negative. All of these central banks have printed trillions of dollars in their respective currencies under various QE programs. They are at the point [...]Read More >
CMG Q3 2015 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2015 third quarter net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG Classic Blends. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Excessive Optimism (ST Bearish), High Global Recession Risk, No Sign of U.S. Recession
S&P 500 Index 2109 By Steve Blumenthal November 4, 2015 Following below is my market, investor sentiment and economic dashboard. In short, excessive optimism is short-term bearish for stocks, there is a high risk of global recession (strong data/chart below), no signs of a U.S. [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Defending Diversification
October 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Whatever the form of risk and risk measurement one uses, the important thing to know is that diversification reduces risk and can be used to reduce risks without reducing returns.” – Ray Dalio Ray Dalio’s “risk parity” or “all weather” investment process has [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – A State of Extreme Optimism
S&P 500 Index 2090 By Steve Blumenthal October 28, 2015 Short-term investor sentiment is now excessively optimistic which is short-term bearish for stocks. The S&P 500 index sits today at 2090. The next important resistance sits at 2100. There is significant resistance at the prior [...]Read More >
Bridgewater Daily Observations: Our Thoughts About Risk Parity and All Weather
By: Ray Dalio, Bob Prince and Greg Jensen Since there has recently been a controversy about risk parity, since we were responsible for coming up with the idea, and since we now manage more of it than any other firm, we feel a responsibility for answering people’s questions about it. Finding out [...]Read More >
On My Radar: I’m Rooting For Ray!
October 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it — even though others may hesitate or differ. (You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with [...]Read More >
What’s Going On In Your Brain
Common Investor Biases and Where They Come From Authors: Michael J. Mauboussin Dan Callahan, CFA Humans are social and generally want to be part of the crowd. Studies of social conformity suggest that the group’s view may shape how we perceive a situation. Those individuals who remain [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – At Technical Resistance, ST Sentiment is Neutral
S&P 500 Index 2030 By Steve Blumenthal October 21, 2015 Investor sentiment has moved from “extremely pessimistic” (which is short-term bullish for the market) to neutral; however, the daily sentiment indicator is nearing “extreme optimism” (which would be short-term bearish for the [...]Read More >
Lucy, Charlie Brown and the Fed
October 16, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-CEO at The Carlyle Group, on Bloomberg TV several days ago, said, a U.S. recession is "inevitable." "We have not really had a recession in six years," Rubenstein explained. "We came out of the last recession in June of [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Sentiment Pessimistic, Cyclical Down Trend, Zweig Model Bullish on Bonds
S&P 500 Index 2005 By Steve Blumenthal October 15, 2015 The CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index remains in a sell (June 30, 2015 at S&P 500 Index level 2063). Two weeks ago, NDR’s Big Mo indicator moved to a sell signal and last week moved back to a buy signal. I favor the CMG NDR [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Equity Valuations & Portfolio Positioning
October 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "Facing up" to returns that will be less than the historical norm is the "single largest factor out there we have to deal with." – AQR’s Cliff Asness Valuation work seems to be showing up everywhere. Being the data geek I am, each month I like to take a look [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – No Go Says Big Mo, Zweig Model Bullish On Bonds
S&P 500 Index 1990 By Steve Blumenthal October 7, 2015 The market has rallied 100 points since last week. We have reached a point of logical overhead resistance. I share a few updates on our tactical strategies (continuing to pivot to bonds) and highlight an S&P 500 Index chart [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Defaults Will Breach the Historical High Next Year – The Fed is the “Wild Card”
October 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Investor Behavior – “You can bury your head in 10q’s and 8k’s and memorize a thousand facts about a company. You can become an expert on a given stock sector and establish relationships with all of the executives who run the show. You can build your own DCF [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Weight of Evidence Bearish, Sentiment Extreme, Sell/Hedge Market Rallies
S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal September 30, 2015 With all of the market turmoil, the sell-off is quite normal by historical measures. The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) is down 16% from the high, the Nasdaq is down 13% from its high, the DJIA is down 12% and the S&P 500 [...]Read More >
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