CMG is pleased to announce that we are implementing a reduced fee schedule at Trust Company of America (TCA) for 2016. In addition to a lower overall fee to the client, we will also be raising the percentage of the payment to our advisors acting as solicitors. Please read below to view the new fee [...]Read More >
Stocks, Oil Falling Hard, Again -Recap
CMG was recently mentioned by Leslie Josephs in the Wall Street Journal blog titled, "Stocks, Oil Falling Hard, Again." See excerpt below. "Concerns about China’s slowing economy may be top of mind for investors, but issues plaguing US companies have a role. Wal-Mart, which sources some goods [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Cyclical Bear Market (Here’s Why)
January 15, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal The speed at which stocks have dropped 10% (defined as a correction) two times in a short period of time has happened just three times in the last 100 years. 1927, 2000 and 2008. This from Art Cashin yesterday, “Jason Goepfert, the outstanding pilot of [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – The Weight of Evidence Remains Bearish
S&P 500 Index 1940 By Steve Blumenthal January 13, 2015 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Equity Trade Signals: CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities Long-term Trend (13/34-Week EMA) on the S&P 500 Index: Sell Signal — Bearish for [...]Read More >
On My Radar – China, Valuation Charts and Recession Watch Charts
January 8, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal China marked its currency lower once again yesterday. That makes eight days in a row they lowered the yuan. Last August, they devalued the yuan and that sent global equity markets into a dive. As Yogi Berra would say, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” For [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Rough Start To The New Year
S&P 500 Index 1981 By Steve Blumenthal January 6, 2015 The S&P 500 index is down 90 points since last week’s post. An ominous start to the New Year. My favorite weight-of-evidence chart that looks at both price momentum and market breadth, our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap [...]Read More >
On My Radar – 2016 Outlook
December 31, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Where do we stand now, economically? “Well, we are right back at it: trying to stimulate growth through easy money. It hasn’t worked, but it’s the only tool the Fed’s got. Meanwhile, the Fed’s policies widen the wealth gap, which feeds political extremism, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Extreme Pessimism is ST Bullish for Equities
S&P 500 Index 2071 By Steve Blumenthal December 30, 2015 Investor pessimism remains extreme. This is short-term bullish for the U.S. equity market. Following are the most recent Trade Signals. Wishing you a Happy New Year! Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Equity Trade [...]Read More >
The History Behind Trade Signals
The History Behind Trade Signals: I like to look at each investment made within a total portfolio as a unique risk. In this regard, an individual investment strategy is one unique risk. Hopefully, each risk selected and put into your portfolio will make money. We know that is not always the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Everything is Awesome!!!
S&P 500 Index 2057 By Steve Blumenthal December 23, 2015 To me, Ben Garrison’s cartoon entitled “Everything Is Awesome!!” pretty much captures the state of the current environment in which we find ourselves. Just the data please! I was a bit shocked, as you may be as well, to see [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Henry Hazlitt and Inflation
December 18, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “There is a doctrine in finance called the dividend discount model. It says that the price of a common stock is the present value of its future cash flows discounted by a suitable rate of interest. Now what would happen to the calculation of the value of that [...]Read More >
Special High Yield Bond Market Update
By Steve Blumenthal December 14, 2015 I’ve been warning for some time of a coming default wave in the high-yield market and the importance of staying tactical (flexible). It appears to be nearing. Prices on high-yield securities hit a six-year low on Friday. The decline in oil has caused many [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Christmas Rally?
S&P 500 Index 2047 By Steve Blumenthal December 16, 2015 Today is Fed day. I’m posting this piece just prior to their interest rate decision. My fingers are crossed for functional Wi-Fi – I’m traveling home from business in Salt Lake City. And a few days on the snow. High-yield [...]Read More >
On My Radar: El-Erian’s 2016 Outlook & The T Junction
December 11, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “You are driving forward and the road you are on ends. You have come to what the British call a T-Junction. You can transition to one of two alternatives. But you cannot stay on the road you are on. One alternative is good. It is a hand off from central [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – HY Bonds Are Breaking Down
S&P 500 Index 2044 By Steve Blumenthal December 9, 2015 “We’re looking at some real carnage in the junk-bond market. This is a little bit disconcerting that we’re talking about raising interest rates with the credit markets in corporate credit absolutely tanking. They’re falling apart.” – [...]Read More >
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