March 4, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The best state pension plan is only 42% funded.” I was in Florida this week attending the 32nd Annual Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Risk Management Conference. Attendees were mostly asset managers and larger pension and endowment managers. Several [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – S&P 500 Index 1980 – Aggressive Rally, Now What?
By Steve Blumenthal March 2, 2016 Now what? Previously I suggested several rally targets. The first was 1900. The second 1950. The third 2000. The S&P 500® is nearing that test. Overall, the cyclical trend picture has not changed. The weight of technical evidence suggests a negative [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Expect More Money Printing
February 26, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Time to put 25% to 30% of your wealth in cash.” – Mohammed El-Erian "If you go to an investment adviser, they'll tell you cash is wasted," says El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz. ‘I don't think so.’ ‘You will have many opportunities to buy [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – New “Buy” Signals on Bonds and Gold; Cyclical Equity Market Trend Remains Negative
S&P 500 Index 1908 By Steve Blumenthal February 24, 2016 I mentioned in last week’s post that the S&P 500® Index is nearing its February high at 1947.20. Extreme investor pessimism supported a short-term rally and both the February high at 1947.20 and the 50-day moving average line [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Ray Dalio and Hussman’s Big “W”
February 19, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “If zero or negative interest rates actually fixed what's broken in the economy, we'd all be living in Paradise after seven years of zero interest rates.” - Charles Hugh Smith (blog) I am up early, in my favorite chair and loving the coffee that Susan just [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Primary Trend is Bearish, Rally Target (S&P 500: 1950 Key Technical Level)
S&P 500 Index 1922 By Steve Blumenthal February 17, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and is neutral for high yield. Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic. Such extreme readings are generally bullish for equites. We are finally seeing the oversold rally. The [...]Read More >
On My Radar: What We See Working
February 12, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six ‘Top Trade’ Calls for 2016” February 9, 2016 Bloomberg News From Financial Advisor Magazine: “The dollar versus a basket of euro and yen; yields on Italian bonds versus their German counterparts; U.S. inflation [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Trend Negative, Investor Sentiment S/T Bullish, Relative Strength Leaders (High Quality Bonds, Utilities and Gold)
S&P 500 Index 1863 By Steve Blumenthal February 10, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and high yield. We continue to see relative strength leadership in utilities, fixed income, tax-free fixed income and gold. Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic. This supports a [...]Read More >
On My Radar: QE Has Not Worked – Period!
February 5, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Clearly, QE has not worked. We have not had one year of 3%+ growth since the Great Recession and are barely averaging 2%. Yes, if your measure is the stock market and other financial assets that have inflated, then QE has worked quite well. But the boost QE [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Margin Debt Flashes Warning
S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal February 3, 2016 Our primary equity market indicator, the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum/Breadth Index remains in a “SELL.” CMG HY is back in a “SELL.” The market is not on solid footing. One of the indicators I like to watch and post [...]Read More >
CMG Q4 2015 Quarterly Performance Update
Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2015 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Last Bull Standing
January 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen – who are more like teenagers at a prom night. They are spiking the punch bowl and handing out free drinks and hoping to get lucky at the end of the night.” James Montier, GMO “Understanding the forces of Supply and Demand in [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Sell/Hedge the Rallies, Investor Pessimism Remains Extreme
S&P 500 Index 1898 By Steve Blumenthal January 27, 2015 Pessimism remains extreme with the Weekly Sentiment at the lowest (most bearish) reading since 2011. That supports a short-term bullish move. I remain in the “hedge or sell the rallies” camp. Our Zweig Bond model moved to a sell [...]Read More >
On My Radar – The Central Bank, the Market and Wealth Creation
By Steve Blumenthal January 22, 2016 "Since the only way you are going to find solutions to painful problems is by thinking deeply about them - i.e., reflecting - if you can develop a knee-jerk reaction to pain that is to reflect rather than to fight or flee, it will lead to your rapid [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – The Bear Bites
S&P 500 Index 1820 By Steve Blumenthal January 20, 2015 Our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index remains the dominant signal, in my view (chart below). It triggered a “Neutral” signal on June 30, 2015 suggesting a move to Treasury bills or “BIL” (cash) or hedge. Additionally, [...]Read More >
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